What Year Is It? 1938? 1972? Or 1914?

WSJ, Atlantic Monthly ^ | August 15, 2006 | ROSS DOUTHAT

[schu]

Foreign-policy debates are usually easy to follow: Liberals battle conservatives, realists feud with idealists, doves vie with hawks. But well into the second Bush term, traditional categories are in a state of collapse.

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There are five major schools of thought on this question, beginning with the "1942ists," who believe that we stand in Iraq today where the U.S. stood shortly after Pearl Harbor: bogged down against a fascist enemy and duty-bound to carry on the fight to victory.

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Over the last year, though, many conservatives have been peeling away from '42ism, joining the "1938ists" instead, for whom Iran's march toward nuclear power is the equivalent of Hitler's 1930s brinkmanship.

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'72ism has few mainstream politicians behind it, but a great many Americans, and it holds that George Bush is Nixon, Iraq is Vietnam, and that any attack on Iran or Syria would be equivalent to bombing Cambodia.

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"1948ists," who share the '42ist and '38ist view of the war on terror as a major generational challenge, but insist that we should think about it in terms of Cold War-style containment and multilateralism, not Iraq-style pre-emption

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But as our crisis deepens, it's worth considering 1914ism, and with it the possibility that all of us, whatever year we think it is, are poised on the edge of an abyss that nobody saw coming.

[Jim Noble]

whatever year we think it is, are poised on the edge of an abyss that nobody saw coming

Nobody?

I see it as clear as day.

[Porterville]

One more point... it is a global civil war lashing out against union.

[Billthedrill]

Ouch. Reasoning by analogy is always more analogy than reasoning. It's useful enough in a descriptive sort of model but it breaks down when you try to turn it into a predictive model, because just because two things look alike doesn't mean that they are alike.

It's 2006.

[Wolfstar]

Good post.

Thanks. I agree with you. The modern world's self-imposed restraint scares me more than anything else. It isn't going to work in the long run, because the Islamofacist savages will continue to be emboldened by what they correctly perceive as our weakness.

The only thing saving us right now is the fact that the savages are fighting a lot of skirmishes, guerrilla style with no true organization. If they are ever able to organize themselves under an overarching strategy, look out.

[schu]

"Reasoning by analogy is always more analogy than reasoning.."

And that was part of the theme of the article, that past models are in a state of flux, huge flux.

But it is fun and interesting! Oh if we could have had the Internet and been around in 1938, what would the threads have said then!

schu

[Robert DeLong]

That depends on whom you consider all of the enemies to be. If you think Russia and China are our friends, think again. Even at this point we cannot consider France, Germany, and in many respects even Canada as our friends. While we could inflict a lot of damage in a quick fashion there are other countries that can do the same to us. Beyond inflicting a lot of damage, no war can be won without a ground invasion, and we really do not have a large enough army to pull it off in my opinion, as mush as I would love to attack Iran tomorrow. Perhaps I am wrong, but I think Iran would be much harder than you think. As we see with Hezzbollah, you have to have a decisive victory or they will claim victory if they have anyone left standing.

[Robert DeLong]

That depends on whom you consider all of the enemies to be. If you think Russia and China are our friends, think again. Even at this point we cannot consider France, Germany, and in many respects even Canada as our friends. While we could inflict a lot of damage in a quick fashion there are other countries that can do the same to us. Beyond inflicting a lot of damage, no war can be won without a ground invasion, and we really do not have a large enough army to pull it off in my opinion, as mush as I would love to attack Iran tomorrow. Perhaps I am wrong, but I think Iran would be much harder than you think. As we see with Hezzbollah, you have to have a decisive victory or they will claim victory if they have anyone left standing.

[brownsfan]

"Not difficult to foresee a 'one on one' here."

I am a peaceful person by nature. I don't own a gun, (no real objection to guns, just never needed one).

However, I am mentally prepared for what may come. I could, and will do what it takes to defend my home from muslims. Read that as you will.

[Joe 6-pack]

I prefer to think of myself as an August 6, 1945ist. As Lew Grizzard would've said, "Time to crank up the Enola Gay!"

[railroader]

I'm a 1945ist; the Pacific War ended when nukes were used.

I could even be a 1946ist; the USSR was threatened with nukes if they did not honor their agreement to withdraw troops from Iran.

Or maybe I'm a 1953ist; the Korean War came to a halt after we threatened China with nukes.

Maybe I could even be a 1991ist; reportedly, Saddam Hussein was threatened (or we wanted him to think we were threatening him) with nukes if he used chemical weapons against our troops.

Notice the theme?

There was never a real third world war because of the threat of nukes. Now that the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki our now six decades in the past, perhaps it is time to make examples of dictators like Assad, Ahmedinejad and Kim Jong Il?

[Eastbound]

"If they are ever able to organize themselves under an overarching strategy, look out."

On the other hand, each muzzie could be viewed as a leaderless warrior -- all getting their marching orders form the same source and all independent of each other. Something like leader-less resistance. Islam is source enough, as explained in the koran.

It's only when they are in large numbers in a particular region that they become more active and more extreme. Otherwise they are compliant, docile, friendly, live let live kind of folks. But patience is their strategy, biding their time until they have a large enough population and support group.

They already have their support group. The MSM and the democrats, along with their own muzzie political organizations here.

In short, they need no leaders. They are self-led by a common ideology. They will be popping up like popcorn when the microwave hits the three-minute mark.

The plug should be pulled before it becomes exponential -- like yesterday.

[Billthedrill]

But it is fun and interesting! Oh if we could have had the Internet and been around in 1938, what would the threads have said then!

I agree completely - I ought to because I indulge in it enough. It's part of the charm of reading history.

But we already know what would have happened if there had been an Internet in 1938. It's THIS.

[Eastbound]

When it's time to flush the toilet, it's time to flush the toilet. Here's my philosophy:

[SirJohnBarleycorn]

376 & 406 and years following: Visigoths allowed by Valens to settle within the Roman Empire and large numbers of barbarians cross the Rhine but many are not assimilated
= 1960s and years following: Large numbers of muslims move into Europe and Britain but many are not assimilated

378: the defeat of Roman army by Visigoths
= 1962: France, trying to cling to a colonial way of life, is defeated by muslim terrorists in Algeria and surrenders in the most ignominious fashion possible

410: Sack of Rome by barbarians
= 2005: Burning of Paris by barbarians

434-453: Attila conducts a reign of terror across Europe; many Germanic tribes support the Huns
= 1990s-present: Islamic fascists conduct terror operations; many Western Leftists support the terrorists

451: Roman-led coalition defeats Attilla’s barbarian force at Chalons, but does not follow up for complete victory
= 1991 US-led coalition defeats Saddam’s army and pushes it out of Kuwait, but does not follow up for complete victory

400s generally: Roman civilization becomes increasingly degenerate; military ranks in the legions filled increasingly by barbarians and less by old line Roman families
= 1960s to present: Western civilization becomes increasingly degenerate as a popular culture generated by New York/Los Angeles/Western European liberal hedonists becomes the largest influence in the lives of most young people; Europe unable to sustain effective military forces.

ca 450s: Romano-British forces led by Arthur defeats barbarians in Britain at Mons Badonicus, barbarians take decades to recover
= 2001-present: Coalition of civilized nations led by George W. Bush defeats Islamic fascists in Afghanistan and then in post-Saddam Iraq

[brownsfan]

Beautiful. Thanks for the laugh.

[Keith]

I agree...as a historian, history never completely repeats itself...but if I have to pick one...I'm a 732ist...and Bush is Charles Martel.

[Eastbound]

"Clean-up on Aisle Six!" ;>

[napscoordinator]

The only time I was nervous for the United States was from 1976 to 1980. That in my opinion was the worst it could get. It was truly an awful time in terms of the world. Of course I was ages 7 to 11 during that time and only saw the news of those blind folded people being unloaded off the plane. It was scary to me for some reason. Otherwise we are doing fine and will be. Why are you guys acting like it is the end of the world. It is certainly not even close. All of us will die of a regular death. Stop scaring people with nonsence (not specifically you just all the posters.)

[MNJohnnie]

I believe that the current geopolitical situation most closely resembles that of pre WW I. Extreme political alignment into two camps of hegemony, a whole new generation of devastating weapons that need real world testing

Except the fundamental flaw in your logic is obvious. We have all the weapons, economic and logistics power and military expertise. The Muslims are military parasites incapable of designing their own rifles much less modern tanks, aircraft or any other fundamental weapon of war. The sum total of their military production efforts is the ability to buy up 20 year old used Soviet Junk and perform shade tree mechanic style modifications to it. Here is what a "US Vrs Them" Military match up looks like. Modern war is as much about Ecnomics and Logistic might as numbers. HERE are some numbers that show why no one will be able to face the US on the battlefield and win in our life time.

Hypothetical Military Match Up. USA vrs the China/Iran/Syrian Axis. I will even add China as a potential Axis member.

Even if you multiply the CIA facts by a factor of the 5 on the absurd notion that they are successfully "hiding" their real military from us, the Iran/Syria Axis comes NO where near the US ALONE in Military power.

I am not even going to bother putting Israel, Japan, South Korea, India and the NATO countries on our side. The scale all ready tips so heavily to the US there is no reason to pile on.

This is JUST a comparison between the US and the Iran/Syrian Axis. For fun I will include Egypt and the Saudis as part of the Iran/Syrian Axis to show how absurd the "It's World War Three" babbling is.

http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/united_states/united_states_military.html

USA.

Military branches: Army, Navy and Marine Corps, Air Force, and Coast Guard; note - Coast Guard administered in peacetime by the Department of Homeland Security, but in wartime reports to the Department of the Navy

Military service age and obligation: 18 years of age; 17 years of age with written parental consent (2006)

Manpower available for military service: males age 18-49: 67,742,879 females age 18-49: 67,070,144 (2005 est.)

Manpower fit for military service: males age 18-49: 54,609,050 females age 18-49: 54,696,706 (2005 est.)

Manpower reaching military service age annually: males age 18-49: 2,143,873 females age 18-49: 2,036,201 (2005 est.)

Military expenditures - dollar figure: $518.1 billion (FY04 est.) (2005 est.)

Military expenditures - percent of GDP: 4.06% (FY03 est.) (2005 est.)

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http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/iran/iran_military.html

Iran.

Iran Military - 2006

Islamic Republic of Iran Regular Forces (Artesh): Ground Forces, Navy, Air Force (includes Air Defense); Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Enqelab-e Eslami, IRGC): Ground Forces, Navy, Air Force, Qods Force (special operations), and Basij Force (Popular Mobilization Army); Law Enforcement Forces (2004)

Military service age and obligation: 18 years of age for compulsory military service; 16 years of age for volunteers; soldiers as young as 9 were recruited extensively during the Iran-Iraq War; conscript service obligation - 18 months (2004)

Manpower available for military service: males age 18-49: 18,319,545 females age 18-49: 17,541,037 (2005 est.)

Manpower fit for military service: males age 18-49: 15,665,725 females age 18-49: 15,005,597 (2005 est.)

Manpower reaching military service age annually: males age 18-49: 862,056 females age 18-49: 808,044 (2005 est.)

Military expenditures - dollar figure: $4.3 billion (2003 est.)

Military expenditures - percent of GDP: 3.3% (2003 est.)

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http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/syria/syria_military.html

Syria

Military branches: Syrian Armed Forces: Syrian Arab Army, Syrian Arab Navy, Syrian Arab Air and Air Defense Force (includes Air Defense Command) (2005)

Military service age and obligation: 18 years of age for compulsory military service; conscript service obligation - 30 months (18 months in the Syrian Arab Navy); women are not conscripted but may volunteer to serve (2004)

Manpower available for military service: males age 18-49: 4,356,413 females age 18-49: 4,123,339 (2005 est.)

Manpower fit for military service: males age 18-49: 3,453,888 females age 18-49: 3,421,558 (2005 est.)

Manpower reaching military service age annually: males age 18-49: 225,113 females age 18-49: 211,829 (2005 est.)

Military expenditures - dollar figure: $858 million (FY00 est.); note - based on official budget data that may understate actual spending

Military expenditures - percent of GDP: 5.9% (FY00)

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http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/egypt/egypt_military.html

Egypt

Military branches: Army, Navy, Air Force, Air Defense Command

Military service age and obligation: 18 years of age for conscript military service; three-year service obligation (2001)

Manpower available for military service: males age 18-49: 18,347,560 females age 18-49: 17,683,904 (2005 est.)

Manpower fit for military service: males age 18-49: 15,540,234 females age 18-49: 14,939,378 (2005 est.)

Manpower reaching military service age annually: males age 18-49: 802,920 females age 18-49: 764,176 (2005 est.)

Military expenditures - dollar figure: $2.44 billion (2003)

Military expenditures - percent of GDP: 3.4% (2004)

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http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/saudi_arabia/saudi_arabia_military.html

Saudi Arabia

Military branches: Land Forces (Army), Navy, Air Force, Air Defense Force, National Guard, Ministry of Interior Forces (paramilitary)

Military service age and obligation: 18 years of age (est.); no conscription (2004)

Manpower available for military service: males age 18-49: 7,648,999 females age 18-49: 5,417,922 (2005 est.)

Manpower fit for military service: males age 18-49: 6,592,709 females age 18-49: 4,659,347 (2005 est.)

Manpower reaching military service age annually: males age 18-49: 247,334 females age 18-49: 234,500 (2005 est.)

Military expenditures - dollar figure: $18 billion (2002)

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href="http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/China/China_military.html">http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/China/China_military.html

China

Military expenditures - percent of GDP: 10% (2002)

Military branches:

People's Liberation Army (PLA): Ground Forces, Navy (includes marines and naval aviation), Air Force (includes Airborne Forces), and II Artillery Corps (strategic missile force); People's Armed Police (PAP); Reserve and Militia Forces (2006)

Military service age and obligation: 18-22 years of age for compulsory military service, with 24-month service obligation; no minimum age for voluntary service (all officers are volunteers); 17 years of age for women who meet requirements for specific military jobs (2004)

Manpower available for military service: males age 18-49: 342,956,265 females age 18-49: 324,701,244 (2005 est.)

Manpower fit for military service: males age 18-49: 281,240,272 females age 18-49: 269,025,517 (2005 est.)

Manpower reaching military service age annually: males age 18-49: 13,186,433 females age 18-49: 12,298,149 (2005 est.)

Military expenditures - dollar figure: $81.48 billion (2005 est.)

Military expenditures - percent of GDP: 4.3% (2005 est.)

[BobS]

"Perhaps I am wrong, but I think Iran would be much harder than you think."

Iran ships oil and imports most of it's refined fuels. We man 4 air bases on their eastern side. We are in Iraq on their west side. You can make a safe bet that we have submarines swimming around there that can lay down mines and blow up their port facilities with those big torpedoes. A military needs diesel for big vehicles and gasoline for little ones. Without it, a military doesn't move. They aren't going to march down a desert highway without food and water and other things they need to stay alive. Unless they do like we did in our own Revolutionary war and Civil war and pick up things as they go along. And there isn't much to eat or drink in deserts. There are blue desert flowers in our own Mohave desert that can kill you if you eat them from a disabled liver. The speckled cactus is edible and tastes good. After you cut off the needles and the skin.