I can't believe Condi would be this stupid.
Her message should have been "if the UN Lebanon resolution is not implemented," 
"We will be responsible for the consequences."
Posted on 08/13/2006 5:41:09 PM PDT by section9
Rice calls Lebanese PM to warn him that if the UN Lebanon resolution is not implemented, “We will not be responsible for the consequences”
August 13, 2006, 10:18 PM (GMT+02:00)
Earlier, Israeli FM Tzipi Livni put in urgent calls to the US secretary and the French foreign minister in an effort to salvage the ceasefire from Iranian-backed Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s 12th-hour retraction of his consent.
We HAD legal cover: the UN resolution under which GWI was settled and others. We didn't need another. Second, we had UNSCOM's talley of the WMDs and no record that they were destroyed. Third, there is ample evidence from documents translated and posted here on FR that materials were moved to Syria and Russia.
All we got out of that UN butt covering was a severe pain in the a$$.
Nasrallah obviously knows that his own fate is linked to what happens to Hezbollah. But from here on out, each fighter that is killed weakens him also. A cease fire, a total cease fire with the disarming of Hezbollah, is his best hope to survive as a leader, and to eventually reconstitute them as a fighting force. Of course, this would not exactly please Tehran or Damascus, but he has to choose soon. He knows his time is running out.
Yes, given that the UN is "impossibly bureaucratic" and "inept", we shouldn't have to worry about the UN having a capable military.
Korea.
Vietnam
Bosnia
Somalia
Rwanda...
There are STILL UN troops in southern Lebanon, still drinking coffee on the beach, and still in the way of crushing Hezbollah. UN troops carry Hamas thugs in ambulances in Gaza. They've been busted transporting arms to Hamas.
How many UNprecedents, how many dead people on our side, is it going to take before you drop your fear of a mess media that's going to bash conservatives no matter what they do?
It doesn't take long to strafe a convoy either.
He does this for 2 reasons: first, to rope-a-dope the terrorists into thinking there are no WMDs, second to allay our fears of their existance and threat that they pose.
I fully expect to wake up tomorrow, flip on the TV, and still see the network 'danger boys' still wearing helmets and flak jackets with boom-booms in the background.
I can't believe Condi would be this stupid.
Her message should have been "if the UN Lebanon resolution is not implemented,"
"We will be responsible for the consequences."
There has been no news on where in southern Lebanon the 30,000 Israeli ground troops are deployed. I think the following deployment is likely. They are likely deployed in an box like formation About a quarter of the troops are deployed along the Mediterranean Sea; About a quarter along the south side of the the river that runs across the northern part of Southern Lebanon; About a quarter are places along the Syrian border; and about a quarter are placed along the Israeli border. There are no Israeli troops in the interior of the box.
This force deployment has several advantages all means of escape and resupply to the Hezbollah in southern Lebanon are blocked. If a large portion of Hezbollah are trapped in this box they must sooner or later attack to get food or starve to death.
It is one thing to be a defensive force. Hezbollah has trained extensively on defensive strategies. They can hide in holes and tunnels and come out to kill Israeli Troops. They can fire rockets and missiles. But they have not the force size or the weapons to conduct an offensive war.
The situation is reversed. It is Hezbollah who must attack and they have little or no skills in this area. The IDF gets to play defense. But the IDF has 30,000 troops. And it takes 3 times as many troops to attack as it does to defend. But Hezbollah has 1/24 the number of troops to make a successful attacking force.
Sooner or later Hezbollah will get so hungry they must either surrender or attack. Their supplies of ammunition will be limited. The routes of resupply are closed. They have to go through a huge Israeli force to get supplies... They must attack with out enough forces or the right kind of weapons to successfully attack.
There is no way to resupply. Not from the north.. there are Israeli troops. Not from the south, the east or west. They are surrounded.
If I am right, the Members of the potential UN peace keeping force will keep saying to each other.... you first .. no you first ... for a month or two. The Lebanese army will just sits on its rump waiting to hold a meeting. While that is going on Israel can kill and disarm a huge amount of Hezbollah. All of it in southern Lebanon.
The most likely strategy for Hezbollah would be to try to attack from the north across the river. To make a whole from which at least some of their forces could escape. But that is not likely to result in anthing except more Hezbollah deaths.
I would expect that Israel will not allow any reporters inside this box. And I suspect that few if any reporters get too far from from the capital of Lebanon. It may be a while before we know exactly what is taking place. But getting supplies from Syria... is only useful if Hezbollah choses to attack.
It the next few days may not be as disasterous as we might have thought at first glance.
Like it or not the mass media does play a role for the worse and to completely discount the media instead of working to minimize the media's negative effect is foolhardy. It's an important part of the war.
And I don't remember the UN placing peacekeepers in Korea or Vietnam, so I don't know why they are in your list.
It's not dead on our side that's really being discussed here, because we've already said we wouldn't be part of a multi-national force. It's dead on Israel's side. And my point is that Israel has the right to choose war or cease fire.
Nobody other than another Israeli has the right to call them cowards, because they've proven themselves courageous time and time again.
I assume that I am not mistaking a complete Bush admin cluster---- for Machiavellian brilliance, in which case this is stage I and Syria will be stage II. Being stripped of the Hezbollah ally will cost the Syrians a lot both economically and militarily. A little intimidation (and a lot of Saudi cash) might make them reconsider their allegiances.
That would leave Iran completely isolated by winter (campaign season in the Middle East) and Bush with 2 years left in office.
If stage I is successful, look for the Iranians to try to start some major problems with the Shiite militias in Iraq: it appears to be already happening in Basra where Iraqi Army officers and civil administration figures appear to be getting assassinated and British troops attacked by Iranian backed groups.
Thanks. Your scenario sounds smart, likely and reasonable. I just can't shake the sense that there is always much going on beneath the diplomacy. What we see is merely window dressing.
I have to say that it amuses me to no end that people think the President and his team don't "really understand" the nature of "fascist Islam."
A great turn of phrase, If you don't mind I would like to borrow that "one eyed monkey with a brain tumor" remark for a discussion in the future about dimwit politicians:). I agree on the bravery of Israeli troops.
Sounds good! .....
One thing I'd like to add to your scenario.....Occasionally when Hexbolla troops get low in numbers allow a few more in so they can receive the same treatment as those they are replacing.
It has been a long time.. back in the Ford Administration, but there was a time when I did have access to the inside track. I can assure you there is a ton of things going on under the surface.
If you want to know what is going on ... ask your self what is the media not telling me and why. Note the media was telling us everywhere the Israeli forces were deployed Now they are not... Why?
Why are there not a lot more Israely causualties. If 10,000 troops had x number of causualties... then why isn't 30,000 troops suffering 3 times x. But they are not ... WHY?
You can see how things can be deduced from what you KNOW.. and what you are NOT TOLD.
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