Posted on 08/11/2006 12:00:58 PM PDT by EternalHope
Midnight August 22nd
By now everyone who follows the news knows Iran has something in mind for August 22nd. That's when Iran says they will deliver their answer to the UN's demands that they cease their nuclear weapons program. They have also said the skies over Israel will be lit up, just as they believe they were lit up umpteen hundred years ago when their prophet was supposedly carried up to heaven for a visit. Most people think Iran intends to do more than deliver a note to Kofi Annan on August 22nd.
That's 11 days from now, give or take a few hours.
Does Iran plan a nuclear attack on Israel (or the U.S.) in 11 days?
I do not think President Bush will allow any specific attack to occur that he can prevent, regardless of the political consequences. But without knowing specific details about an attack, it is hard to know what will head it off.
The situation is similar to November of 1941. President Roosevelt is widely thought to have had advance intel letting him know Japan was about to do something, but chose to do nothing. It is not clear he knew where/when the attack would actually come. But regardless of what he did or did not know, the REPUBLICANS were in full isolationist mode. He could not make any significant move until his hand was stronger.
We face a similar "Pearl Harbor" situation today. President Bush does not have the political support he would need to start a general war with Iran. Absent a clear, specific, and imminent threat, including enough details for us to be able take actions that will head it off, President Bush's hands are tied.
I don't know the future, but here's a scenario that just might be true:
Iran (via proxies such as Hezbolla) launches a series of terrorist attacks between now and August 22nd. The hope is to provoke a response that can be used to justify whatever outrages follow. But even if no response is provoked, the subsequent attacks will occur.
Then, the night of August 21/22, Iran launches a multiple missile barrage designed to overwhelm Israel's missile defenses. Mixed in somewhere after the first hundred or so missiles have been fired is at least one missile with a nuclear warhead. Given the overload on Israel's missile defenses, this missile has a good chance to get through. If it does, part of Israel will be vaporized. Chaos ensues, and the Mahdi eventually returns (according to Ahmadinejad, anyway).
Ah, but we know this scenario is possible, maybe even probable. So we have a prepared response ready. (Count on it, Ahmadinejad).
Five minutes after the Iranian missile barrage starts a preplanned U.S. strike will be under way. Let's hope the U.S. response is fast enough, and strong enough, to keep the Iranian plan from succeeding.
Iran knows we will be ready, and they think we will not succeed in stopping them. But regardless of the outcome of that first engagement, the next phase of WWIV will have begun.
BEST CASE SCENARIO:
A. We succeed in stopping whatever Ahmadinejad has in mind.
B. Whatever it is we do, it also results in the Iranian people overthrowing their tyrannical overlords.
C. Iranian support for terror in Iraq ceases.
D. Peace and prosperity breaks out in Iran and Iraq. The middle east is transformed.
E. Islam eventually decides to compete for men's souls via Jihad of the mind, instead of Jihad of mass destruction.
F. We go back to living normal lives.
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
1. We find out how many Hezbollah and Al Qaida types are really in our midst. Widespread terrorist attacks occur in our own country.
2. We find out where Saddam's WMD went, plus whatever else the Islamofacists are capable of. Israel gets some, but so do lots of other places including the U.S.
3. If the Islamofacists can possibly provoke it, war breaks out between Pakistan and India. Such a war could very easily go nuclear.
4. North Korea may "seize the moment" and attack South Korea and perhaps even Japan. This war could also go nuclear.
5. China may decide the time has come to take Taiwan. Still another place that could go nuclear.
6. Every Muslim nation with oil may cut off supplies to the west. This would be enough to cripple the West, but might be trivial compared to everything else that could be happening by then.
I don't know which scenario is most likely, but I do know they are each possible. We could end up somewhere in between.
Regardless, the next Pearl Harbor could easily be just 11 days away. We see it coming. Perhaps this time we will be able to avoid getting hit so hard when the wake-up blow is delivered. And if it comes, let's hope the aftermath is not the Worst Case Scenario described above.
Isaiah 17:1 says "The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap."
It doesn't say who would do the deed
Lol! Mine is three days later and I'm not about to get gypped outta my birtday presents! Don't people know not to mess with virgos by now? We ain't pretty when we're mad! :)
Iran's Weapons of Mass Destruction
It's from the same group you cited. Quote:
Iran seems to be trying to develop a “bomb in a fog”—to keep its efforts both covert and confusing enough that there will be no conclusive evidence that will catalyze the UN into cohesive, meaningful action or justify a U.S. response.
That pretty much sums it up.
About all that can be said with certainty is that Iran has made a big deal about August 22nd, and has been dropping apocalyptic hints.
I think we all need to "Mark Up" every muslim in this country the 21st and 22nd. No muslim gets a moment to be by themselves.
It would ruin Bunny's first birthday too. Not good. How do we let him know it's not a good week for shenanigans?
I first read your FR home page several months ago. VERY well done. I just wish everyone knew this stuff, especially our politicians.
Ahmadinejad and his ilk believe in things so far removed from most people's beliefs that they simply cannot comprehend someone like him. Which means they simply cannot comprehend the threat he poses.
Personally, I do not think he is bluffing. He has something planned for the night of August 21/22, or the day of August 22nd. What it is I do not know.
Perhaps it will be a nuclear test announcing he has joined the club. Or, he could decide not to "waste" a bomb testing a design he got from Pakistan and knows will work, and just use it immediately against Israel. It could be something more mundane, such as a biological/chemical warfare attack.
Whatever it is, I doubt it will be something as mundane as blowing a dozen airplanes out of the sky. He has built expectations up too high for something that "routine" to fill the bill.
The whole August 22 deal was involving the 10 planes they were planning to desstroy with the liquids. The "light over the skies of Israel" was to be each individual plane being blown up as the flew over the city of their destination here in the United States. The British authorities stepped in during what was supposed to be a dry run.
Apparently Rajab 27 will start at sundown tomorrow, August 21st. I assume that means sundown in Jerusalem.
It will run until sundown August 22nd.
Given the time zone difference, that means we here in the U.S. could find out what Iran has in mind sometime during the day tomorrow.
Will Iran light up the sky over Jerusalem??
IF so, how??
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