Posted on 08/11/2006 12:00:58 PM PDT by EternalHope
Midnight August 22nd
By now everyone who follows the news knows Iran has something in mind for August 22nd. That's when Iran says they will deliver their answer to the UN's demands that they cease their nuclear weapons program. They have also said the skies over Israel will be lit up, just as they believe they were lit up umpteen hundred years ago when their prophet was supposedly carried up to heaven for a visit. Most people think Iran intends to do more than deliver a note to Kofi Annan on August 22nd.
That's 11 days from now, give or take a few hours.
Does Iran plan a nuclear attack on Israel (or the U.S.) in 11 days?
I do not think President Bush will allow any specific attack to occur that he can prevent, regardless of the political consequences. But without knowing specific details about an attack, it is hard to know what will head it off.
The situation is similar to November of 1941. President Roosevelt is widely thought to have had advance intel letting him know Japan was about to do something, but chose to do nothing. It is not clear he knew where/when the attack would actually come. But regardless of what he did or did not know, the REPUBLICANS were in full isolationist mode. He could not make any significant move until his hand was stronger.
We face a similar "Pearl Harbor" situation today. President Bush does not have the political support he would need to start a general war with Iran. Absent a clear, specific, and imminent threat, including enough details for us to be able take actions that will head it off, President Bush's hands are tied.
I don't know the future, but here's a scenario that just might be true:
Iran (via proxies such as Hezbolla) launches a series of terrorist attacks between now and August 22nd. The hope is to provoke a response that can be used to justify whatever outrages follow. But even if no response is provoked, the subsequent attacks will occur.
Then, the night of August 21/22, Iran launches a multiple missile barrage designed to overwhelm Israel's missile defenses. Mixed in somewhere after the first hundred or so missiles have been fired is at least one missile with a nuclear warhead. Given the overload on Israel's missile defenses, this missile has a good chance to get through. If it does, part of Israel will be vaporized. Chaos ensues, and the Mahdi eventually returns (according to Ahmadinejad, anyway).
Ah, but we know this scenario is possible, maybe even probable. So we have a prepared response ready. (Count on it, Ahmadinejad).
Five minutes after the Iranian missile barrage starts a preplanned U.S. strike will be under way. Let's hope the U.S. response is fast enough, and strong enough, to keep the Iranian plan from succeeding.
Iran knows we will be ready, and they think we will not succeed in stopping them. But regardless of the outcome of that first engagement, the next phase of WWIV will have begun.
BEST CASE SCENARIO:
A. We succeed in stopping whatever Ahmadinejad has in mind.
B. Whatever it is we do, it also results in the Iranian people overthrowing their tyrannical overlords.
C. Iranian support for terror in Iraq ceases.
D. Peace and prosperity breaks out in Iran and Iraq. The middle east is transformed.
E. Islam eventually decides to compete for men's souls via Jihad of the mind, instead of Jihad of mass destruction.
F. We go back to living normal lives.
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
1. We find out how many Hezbollah and Al Qaida types are really in our midst. Widespread terrorist attacks occur in our own country.
2. We find out where Saddam's WMD went, plus whatever else the Islamofacists are capable of. Israel gets some, but so do lots of other places including the U.S.
3. If the Islamofacists can possibly provoke it, war breaks out between Pakistan and India. Such a war could very easily go nuclear.
4. North Korea may "seize the moment" and attack South Korea and perhaps even Japan. This war could also go nuclear.
5. China may decide the time has come to take Taiwan. Still another place that could go nuclear.
6. Every Muslim nation with oil may cut off supplies to the west. This would be enough to cripple the West, but might be trivial compared to everything else that could be happening by then.
I don't know which scenario is most likely, but I do know they are each possible. We could end up somewhere in between.
Regardless, the next Pearl Harbor could easily be just 11 days away. We see it coming. Perhaps this time we will be able to avoid getting hit so hard when the wake-up blow is delivered. And if it comes, let's hope the aftermath is not the Worst Case Scenario described above.
Maybe they are planning to invade Iraq.
August 22 is my birthday. The mad mullahs darn well better not mess with my birthday.
Actually, what they will probably do is not use their nukes, but only bully their neighbors with them, particularly Iraq.
They'll give the US an ultimatum to withdraw.
It only takes one EMP weapon to ruin your whole day.
My first day in my new house.
9/11 was my mother in law's birthday.
It might be nice if we had a little something in mind for August 21st.
Don't forget "Veteran of the Psychic Wars" by BOC and "March of Cambreadth" by Heather Alexander.
I'm thinking he's going to call a world wide press conference with ABC, NBC and CBS in the front row with their cameras rolling then flip the bird saying "Take that you Israeli pigs!".....
If I were an Iranian I'd be shaking my head saying "Aw Geez, not this Sh&* again!"
I sure hope they don't do this on Aug. 22nd. We are having a BBQ lunch for our classroom parents that day. And it would also ruin my birthday week.
Since the rags seem to be dealing with North Korea for missiles, the theory is far-fetched.
Iran has tested missiles with ranges much further than Tel Aviv. The most recent tests were only a few months ago. Whether they were home grown, purchased (Korea?), or modifications of purchased missiles is not clear.
What IS clear, however, is that Iran has successfully tested missiles capable of hitting Israel.
It is also well established that Pakistan has both nukes and missiles to carry them, and that the head of the Paki nuclear program sold Paki nuclear technology to many Muslim nations.
Ya gotta test "em and I haven't seen any tests. Have you?
Until recently, the chance of North Korea unleashing ICBMs with deadly warheads seems remote. Their missile capability currently consists of the middle-range Taepodong-2 that could accommodate a two or three-stage booster and reach the U.S. West Coast, Alaska and further inland. That missile modification, along with a nuclear payload capability, is still seen by some experts as a future, and not imminent, threat. However, in 2003, then-CIA Director George Tenet told a Senate committee that North Korea indeed had the ability to strike the West Coast with a long-range missile. A concurrent fear of North Korea's missile capability is the possibility that it would sell a more sophisticated missile to another country and not directly take the U.S. head on with a missile threat. After successfully launching its No Dong missile a decade ago, the North Koreans went looking for buyers in other countries.
Beyond the threat from North Korea, Iran poses a possible threat to European allies and any U.S. troops in Europe or the Mid-East, thus the talks with European countries to deploy intercept missiles in the region. Recent revelations that Iran is continuing with nuclear research has heightened concerns in Washington, but as with North Korea, the ability of Iran to install a nuclear device in a warhead, even in a short or mid-range missile, is some years off. Lighter chemical or biological payloads, however, are a possibility.
Since the U.S. intelligence currently projects a possible ICBM threat from either North Korea or Iran in the next fifteen years or so, as current technological hurdles in their missile programs are surmounted, the deployment and eventual testing of the BMDS in upcoming years seems warranted.
Refueling where?
I am sure we will be watching in real time and if so much as the tip of a nose cone appears, we will obliterate their whole country. Same for NK.
Iran has tested their missiles, but NOT any nukes.
As you know, Pakistan is the only Muslim nation to have tested nukes.
North Korea has made enough fissionable material to have nukes, and may have them. However, if they DO have nukes they have probably not been tested. (If Korea has tested a nuke the test did not make it into the media.)
It would be a big gamble for Iran to try to nuke Tel Aviv without testing the weapon first. However, they would be relying on a design that HAS been tested by Pakistan. So they may feel the risk is acceptable.
You've missed the point so I'm moving on. Missiles and nukes does not necessarily mean missiles that can handle nuclear payloads. First you have to develop a nuke and a capable delivery system, then you have to downsize the payload and hope the missile can handle it. The rags are years away from any of this.
Pakistan HAS missiles, nukes, and has successfully tested the two together.
The head of the Pakistani nuclear program has admitted selling Pakistan's nuclear technology to multiple other Muslim nations.
Guess you missed the memo.
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