Prelude to War (Why is America waiting to be attacked by Iran?)

New York Sun ^ | 08/09/06 | JOHN BATCHELOR

[cll]

God Bless her...

[cll]

So, who volunteers to run the End of the World Live Thread on 8/22/2006?

[bwteim]

LOL. I nominate you to host the "End of the World Live Thread on 8/22/2006"

[tiki]

We seem to need a "Pearl Harbor" to get the majority of the American people SOLIDLY behind a war and behind winning it.

[Jim Noble]

You can hire an expert Russian to get one ready to launch for chump change these days.

What is your evidence that this is true?

[Reily]

I don't agree that Germany attacking the Soviet Union was irrational.
Its clearly stated in 'Mein Kampf' that 'living space' for the 'master race' is in the east.
Also after the purge of the Soviet officer corps in the 1930's and its very poor performance against Finland the Soviet military looked like a pushover.
Your case about the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor does make a better case. I still it was done more out of ignorance then reason. Taking on the US was something pushed by the Japanese Imperial Army High Command, the Navy was almost to a man in their High Command against it.
Many in the Navy had extensive experience in the West and in the US and knew it would be national suicide. I think the Iranian Adolf is something thats very unique in our national experience. The closest analog to him might be Jim Jones as a national leader with weapons of mass destruction.

[Jim Noble]

I'm sure China was happy to facilitate such.

.But...but..but...China is so HAPPY to be part of the world economy...China LOVES to be producing all the Wal-Mart junk...China would NEVER do ANYTHING to hurt the flow of American jobs to China!

[ExpatGator]

Mein Kampf is probably not a good argument for rationality, and the USSR might have looked ripe for the picking to a ravenous, megalomaniac few, but prior military history, geography and industrial capabilities argued against that. The USSR's poor performance against the Fins is more a credit to the Fins than a strike against the Commie hordes.

[TET1968]

"We seem to need a "Pearl Harbor" to get the majority of the American people SOLIDLY behind a war and behind winning it."

And even then we have to act quickly since the sudden patriotism of the left being so fleeting, they will be abetting the enemy attackers within weeks.

[radiohead]

I agree w/you. However, I must repeat that I think a lot of people ignore 9/11 and refuse to think about what it means for us as a country. I'm out here on the left coast, where we just had a bunch of Jewish women shot, and the libs refuse to see what's in front of them.

[mad_as_he$$]

Back when the USSR fell apart the Concerned Scientists from the US put together a joint program to keep the Russkies (scientists) busy and out of mischief. This effort was well documented in many places - most notable the PBS show NOVA. That effort has lost momentum and funding due to our interests being elsewhere. The current situation in Russia is grave for both the military and the science corps. Many do not have jobs any more and a lot have not been paid for a long time especially if they are in backwater projects. Search Google and you will find that most mercenaries on the "open" market are Russian or Ukrainian. Many of which were in the old missile corps and perfectly capable of preparing a nuke. There is also discussion in German and French "fringe" press outlets about where have all the Russians gone etc. The Russian mob is full of people with both the capability and willingness to deal in any commodity you want. Last time I was Pakistan just about any Russian weapon you wanted was available for next to nothing in the tribal areas. They will even smuggle it out for you - for a price.

[Question_Assumptions]

It's possible that America and Europe (who doesn't like Israel, anyway) is expecting Israel to take the blunt of any nuclear strike by the Islamofascists and expecting Israel's arsenal of 200 or so nuclear weapons to do what's no longer acceptable in Western academia -- a disproportionate retaliation that does not worry too much about massive civilian casualties. Hopefully, America will find it's new Curtis LeMay if it needs one again.

[Question_Assumptions]

Correct. A proportional response makes starting and continuing a war rational. The objective, while fighting a war, should be to end it as quickly as possible and to make starting one again seem irrational. Anyone who talks about "proportional" wars just doesn't understand warfare, which most leftists don't because war is icky.

[tiki]

I agree. Some Dim was pointing out how popular Bush Sr. was during the Gulf War but if it had lasted one more week there would have been H to pay. People always asked afterward why we didn't march into Bagdad and the real answer is that it had nothing to do with the UN but everything to do with American will.

So many Americans want bloodless war where no-one gets killed or injured, including the enemy.

[bwteim]

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. My gut feeling is that you are more right than wrong, particularly in the long run, as in 10 to 20 years. It will give me something to think about and do some research. Who knew what the world would like after the WWII?

Regarding drilling and refineries, a side point. Oil companies are moving rigs out of the Gulf but not due to Katrina. They can lease their rigs overseas for millions a year more. Oil prices would have to go way up, or oil supplies restricted, for it to be profitable for them to be anchored in the Gulf again. I posted something on this a month or two ago, I'll have to dig it up and get back with you.

[bwteim]

This was not my comment that I mentioned above, but it is a thread on the same topic of oil drilling and why there are fewer rigs in the Gulf. It is from the Wall Street Journal originally:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1675605/posts

[Quix]

We seem to need a "Pearl Harbor" to get the majority of the American people SOLIDLY behind a war and behind winning it.
= = = =

Sadly true in terms of our survival.

Though I'm glad we are not tooooo trigger happy to go to war. War is a terrible thing.

[Quix]

I think Howlin's been nominated on this thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1680521/posts?q=1&&page=501

[Quix]

WRONG.

Chinese PRIDE and desire to be KING OF THE HILL takes priority over all such other stuff. They don't care if they lose 800,000,000 citizens in the process.

[Howlin]

And I have "humbly" accepted; nowhere I'd rather be than right here when all hell breaks loose. :-)