Posted on 08/07/2006 3:43:15 PM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT
Tehran & Damascus Move to Lebanon Lebanon-born Walid Phares is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Author of the recent book Future Jihad, he was also one of the architects of 2004’s United Nations resolution 1559, which called for the disarming of Hezbollah. NRO editor Kathryn Lopez recently talked to Phares about what’s going on in the Mideast, what happened to the Cedar Revolution, and this war we’re all in.
Kathryn Jean Lopez: What is “Future Jihad”? Are we seeing it in the Mideast now?
Walid Phares: “Future Jihad,” which has already begun, refers to a new and potent form of Islamic terrorism, characterized by a Khumeinist-Baathist axis. These are the two trees of jihadism, so to speak — the Salafism and Wahabism embodied in al Qaeda and the sort of jihadism led by Iran and also including Syria, Hezbollah, and their allies in Lebanon.
The alliance has not been in entire agreement as to strategy. The al Qaeda branch began its “Future Jihad” in the 1990s; its efforts culminated on 9/11 and have continued explosively since then. The international “Salafists” aimed at the U.S. in the past decade in order to strengthen their jihads on various battlefields (Chechnya, India, Sudan, Algeria, Indonesia, Palestine, etc.). “Weaken the resolve of America,” their ideologues said, “and the jihadists would overwhelm all the regional battlefields.”
As I argue in Future Jihad, bin Laden and his colleagues miscalculated on the timing of the massive attack against the U.S. in 2001. While they wounded America, they didn’t kill its will to fight (as was the case, for instance, in the Madrid 3/11 attacks). I have heard many jihadi cadres online, and have seen al Jazeera commentators on television, offering hints of criticism about the timing. They were blaming al Qaeda for shooting its imagined “silver bullet” before insuring a strategic follow up. But bin Laden and Zawahiri believe 9/11 served them well, and has put a global mobilization into motion. Perhaps it has, but the U.S. counter strategy in the Middle East, chaotic as the region currently appears, has unleashed counter jihadi forces. The jury is still out as to the time factor: when these forces will begin to weaken the jihadists depends on our perseverance and the public understanding of the whole conflict.
The other “tree” of jihadism, with its roots in Iran, withheld fire after 9/11. They were content to watch the Salafists fight it out with the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan and Iraq, not to mention within the West, as terror cells were hunted down. Ahmedinejad, Assad, and Nasrallah were analyzing how far the US would go, and how far the Sunnis and Salafis would go as well.
The fall of the Taliban and of the Baath in Iraq, however, changed Iran and Syria’s patient plans. The political changes in the neighborhood, regardless of their immediate instability, were strongly felt in Tehran and Damascus (but unfortunately not in the U.S., judging from the political debate here), and pushed the Khumeinists and the Syrian Baathists to enter the dance, but carefully. Assad opened his borders to the jihadists in an attempt to crumble the U.S. role in Iraq, while Iran articulated al Sadr’s ideology for Iraq’s Shiia majority.
A U.S.-led response came swiftly in 2004 with the voting of UNSCR 1559, smashing Syria’s role in Lebanon and forcing Assad to withdraw his troops by April 2005. In response, the “axis” prepared for a counter attack on the Lebanese battlefield by assassinating a number of the Cedar Revolution leaders, including MP Jebran Tueni. In short, the attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah and the kidnappings of soldiers were the tip of an offensive aimed at drawing attention away from Iran’s nuclear weapons programs and Syria’s assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri. Hezbollah was awaiting its moment for revenge against the Cedar Revolution too.
What we see now is 1) a Syro-Iranian sponsored offensive aimed at all democracies in the region and fought in Lebanon; 2) Israel’s counter offensive (which it seems to have prepared earlier); and 3) an attempt by Hezbollah to take over or crumble the Lebanese government.
Lopez: So…did the Cedar Revolution fail?
Phares: Actually, it would be more accurate to say that the Cedar Revolution was failed. The masses in Lebanon responded courageously in March 2005 by putting 1.5 million people on the streets of Beirut. They did it without “no-fly-zones,” expeditionary forces, or any weapons at all, for that matter, and against the power of three regimes, Iran, Syria, and pro-Syrian Lebanon, in addition to Hezbollah terror. The “revolution” was for a time astoundingly successful; since then it has been horribly failed, and first of all by Lebanon’s politicians themselves. One of their leaders, General Michel Aoun, shifted his allegiances to Syria and signed a document with Hezbollah. Other politicians from the “March 14 Movement” then stopped the demonstrations, leaving them with the support of God knows what. They failed in removing the pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud and brought back a pro-Syrian politician to serve as a speaker of the house, Nabih Berri. Meanwhile, even as they were elected by the faithful Cedar Revolution masses, they engaged in a round table dialogue with Hezbollah, a clear trap set by Hassan Nasrallah: “Let’s talk about the future,” he said — with the implication, of course, that they forget about the Cedar Revolution and the militia’s disarming. While political leaders sat for months, enjoying the photo ops with Hassan Nasrallah, he was preparing his counter offensive, which he unleashed just a few days before the Security Council would discuss the future of Iran’s nuclear programs.
The Lebanese government of Prime Minister Seniora also abandoned the Cedar Revolution. His cabinet neither disarmed Hezbollah nor called on the U.N. to help in implementing UNSCR 1559. This omission is baffling. The government was given so much support by the international community and, more importantly, overwhelming popular support inside Lebanon: 80 percent of the people were hoping the Cedar Revolution-backed government would be the one to resume the liberation of the country. Now Hezbollah has an upper hand and the government is on the defensive.
The U.S. and its allies can be accused of certain shortcomings as well. While the speeches by the U.S. president, congressional leaders from both parties, Tony Blair, and Jacques Chirac were right on target regarding Lebanon, and while the U.S. and its counterparts on the Security Council were diligent in their follow up on the Hariri assassination and on implementing UNSCR 1559, there was no policy or plan to support the popular movement in Lebanon. Incredibly, while billions were spent on the war of ideas in the region, Lebanese NGOs that wanted to resume the struggle of the Cedar Revolution and fighting alone for this purpose were not taken seriously at various levels. Policy planners thought they were dealing with the “Cedar Revolution” when they were meeting Lebanon’s government and Lebanese politicians. The difference between the high level speeches on Lebanon and the laissez-faire approach from lower levels is amazing. Simply put, there was no policy on supporting the Cedar Revolution against the three regimes opposing it and the $400 million received by Hezbollah from Iran.
The Cedar Revolution was basically betrayed by its own politicians and is now essentially without a head. Nevertheless, as long as the international support remains, the Revolution will find its way and will face the dangers. The one and a half million ordinary citizens who braved all the dangers didn’t change their minds about Hezbollah’s terror. The resistance and counter-attack was to be expected. Unfortunately, thus far Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have outmaneuvered the West and are at the throats of the Cedar Revolution. The international community must revise its plans, and, if it is strongly backed by the U.S. and its allies, including France, the situation can be salvaged. The good seeds are still inside the country.
More at link...
From: jamestown.org
Note: says this is in response to the last tape from Zawihiri:
Al-Qaeda Oil Attack Thwarted in Yemen
On September 15, Yemen's Interior Ministry announced that during a shootout it had blown up four cars laden with explosives, killing the four suicide bombers in the process before they could reach their intended targets. The foiled attack came within days of al-Qaeda second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri's calls for mujahideen to attack oil installations in Gulf countries.
The attacks, which targeted facilities in Marib and Hadramawt, were apparently meant to be carried out simultaneously by two sets of cars in the early morning hours of September 15. Security guards at the facilities opened fire on the vehicles—which contained 10 gas canisters rigged with TNT—as they sped toward the facilities, killing the attackers as the explosives detonated. One security guard was killed; no serious damage was done to the facilities (Asharq al-Awsat, September 15; Yemen Observer, September 15).
The notoriously trigger-happy nature of the Yemeni security forces appears to have been advantageous in thwarting this attack; such shootouts, however, have often killed innocents in the past. Despite the dramatic nature of the foiled attacks as described by the Interior Ministry, the incident provides little hope of quelling support for al-Qaeda and the mujahideen in Yemen.
One day following the attacks, Yemeni security services arrested four alleged al-Qaeda members suspected of planning attacks in the capital, Sanaa. “A cell linked to the al-Qaeda network was arrested Saturday morning in the capital city of Sanaa," Yemeni Interior Minister Rashad al-Alimi said in a statement. "The cell had links to terrorist attacks on oil installations Friday in Hadramawt and Marib governorates” (Gulf News, September 16). Security services also confiscated 12 bags of highly explosive material, disguises—including women's clothing—fake IDs and forged license plates.
While the foiled attacks were the first against an oil-related target in Yemen since the 2002 al-Qaeda attack on the French oil tanker Limburg off the Yemeni coast, there are still significant concerns about al-Qaeda's strength in the country—the homeland of Osama bin Laden's father. Fears of another attack have been growing in the country since 23 al-Qaeda members escaped via a tunnel from a Yemeni jail last February with help from prison guards; fourteen of the prisoners remain at large.
The foiled attacks and the arrests the following day—as well as the arrest of a bodyguard of Saleh's main opponent accused of al-Qaeda involvement—were immediately placed into the context of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh's fight against terrorism as he was campaigning for re-election. Saleh, who has been in power since 1978, won with more than 77% of the vote in last Wednesday's elections. His cooperation with the United States since the September 11 attacks has been largely unpopular among Yemenis, but his government framed these attacks as against the Yemeni people and their national interests, and he went to lengths to publicize the events of September 15-16 as a victory for the economy and also for the safety of Yemenis.
Most analysts have explicitly linked the foiled attacks to al-Zawahiri's message, released on September 11, warning against the theft of Muslim oil and of new attacks in the Persian Gulf. "You should worry about your presence in two areas—the first is the Gulf, from where you will be expelled, God willing, after your defeat in Iraq, and your economic ruin will be achieved," he said in the statement issued on the often-used al-Sahab website.
Considering that the attackers timed the operations to coincide with the end of the security guards' shift, it seems unlikely that they would have selected and monitored the targets, gained knowledge of the shifts at both facilities, then prepared for and carried out the attacks within only four days of al-Zawahiri's message. Moreover, the Yemeni government announced a tightening of security around oil facilities on September 3 in response to information about potential attacks or sabotage. The attacks were in all likelihood carried out by al-Qaeda members or supporters, but probably not prompted by al-Zawahiri's message.
By "Persian Gulf," the al-Qaeda leader was referring to the much greater oil-producing countries of the UAE and Kuwait (Yemen has less than 20% the production capacity of Kuwait and is one of the poorest countries in the region). Nonetheless, the timing of the attacks must be seen as advantageous to al-Qaeda and its ability to incite attacks around the region with messages delivered on the internet.
In fact, this has not been the first call from al-Zawahiri to attack oil installations in the region. In December 2005, he also called for the targeting of oil facilities in the Gulf in order to damage the U.S. economy. Bin Laden and others have been calling for attacks against these targets for much longer, decrying the loss of Muslim wealth to Western interests.
Last February saw al-Qaeda members in Saudi Arabia attempt to attack the world's largest oil production facility at Abqaiq, but that attack was also unsuccessful. Despite the repeated calls to target these facilities, it appears that al-Qaeda has so far been unable to inflict serious damage on oil production in the Gulf region. In accessing this failure, al-Qaeda may well decide that more, well-planned, well-resourced operations are necessary if they are to really inflict damage against the oil infrastructure in the region.
Chris Heffelfinger is an independent researcher affiliated with the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point.
From: jamestown.org
CASE PENDING IN ALGERIA FOR GSPC MILITANTS WHO RECRUITED FOR AL-QAEDA
According to the September 25 issue of Algeria's El Khabar newspaper, the Algerian government is planning on prosecuting two Algerians for recruiting insurgents to fight in Iraq. One suspect, who has only been identified by "S M," was aligned with the GSPC and communicated with a man operating in Syria known as "Abu al-Himam"; it is believed that al-Himam is originally from Algeria. While in Syria, al-Himam allegedly collaborated with al-Qaeda in sending recruits to fight against U.S. forces in Iraq. As stated by the El Khabar report, al-Himam returned to Algeria in March 2005 and "was assigned by al-Qaeda in Iraq to pave the way for a group of Tunisian jihadists to join the GSPC to master the use of arms and explosives" with the purpose of opening a "war front from Tunisian territories against the Tunisian regime." Both operatives have been captured by Algerian authorities. The incident, however, raises concerns over the role of the GSPC in Algeria and whether it is increasingly moving into the al-Qaeda orbit.
Hat Yai Bombings Mark Shift in Tactics by Thai Insurgents
On September 16, approximately six bombs went off in the southern Thai city of Hat Yai. The bombs killed at least four people, including a Canadian citizen, and wounded around 50 more (Bangkok Post, September 16). Although there was no claim of responsibility—true with all the attacks since 2004—the bombings occurred on the 21st anniversary of the founding of the Gerakan Mujahideen Islami Pattani (GMIP) separatist movement. The bombings were significant in that they portend a shift in tactics by Thai insurgents.
Martial law has been imposed in the region since January 2004, including the provinces of Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala. It also includes three districts of Songkhla province, but not the city of Hat Yai, which has a Buddhist majority. The bombing of Hat Yai is important in that it is the key commercial and financial center for the entire south and is one of the largest rubber producing regions in the world. By some estimates, Hat Yai attracts some 100,000 foreigners a year, mainly traders.
The attacks were well executed and devised to cause panic. Bombs in three department stores went off around 9 PM, driving a throng of people onto the main commercial street where around four more bombs went off in front of a hotel, massage parlor and marketplace, each detonated five minutes apart, causing widespread panic (Bangkok Post, September 16). The thoroughfare has approximately 10 hotels on it and had almost 1,000 people checked in, according to the Thai police (The Nation, September 16). The bombs were detonated by cell phones, despite counter-measures put in place last November.
It was the second near simultaneous bombing in Hat Yai. On April 3, 2005, insurgents exploded simultaneous bombs at Hat Yai's international airport, a hotel and a department store, which killed two and wounded more than 80; out of the nine bombs, however, some failed to detonate or were defused. Bombings in Hat Yai always provoke a greater response from the government in Bangkok, which sees the insurgency as containable and marginal as long as it does not expand out of the three Muslim majority provinces. Attacks in Hat Yai are typically seen as evidence that the insurgency is spreading.
Yet the attacks were significant in that they were some of the first that explicitly targeted foreigners. While there have been 20 foreign casualties in the ongoing insurgency, mainly Chinese and Malaysians, the 2005 and 2006 attacks in Hat Yai led to Western casualties. This may indeed be an important threshold that the insurgents are crossing: the intentional targeting of the Western far enemy.
There are not many Westerners in Thailand's deep south. There is a small but steady stream of backpackers who cross over the land border from Malaysia at Sungai Golok and immediately take the train to Bangkok. Security forces in Thailand now are questioning whether foreigners will be routinely targeted, and if crossing this psychological threshold is the start of a bombing campaign that will target foreigners in key tourist venues. What is very obvious, however, is that the insurgents are determined to cripple the economy in the south. On August 31, for example, bombs were detonated in 22 commercial banks in Yala City (Terrorism Focus, September 6). This latest incident is another sign of this trend.
Zachary Abuza is one of the leading scholars on terrorism in Southeast Asia and is currently Associate Professor for Political Science and International Relations at Simmons College.
UN RELIEF AGENCY MAKES SCHOOL GRANTS TO PALESTINIAN REFUGEE CHILDREN IN
GAZA New
York, Sep 26 2006 11:00AM
A United Nations relief agency has
http://www.un.org/unrwa/refugees/stories/EduIsOurEconomy.html
distributed
100
shekels (about $25) apiece to Palestinian refugee children to cover the
costs of
school bags, uniforms and shoes in the Gaza Strip, infusing noticeable
economic
activity into a region that has reached an unprecedented level of
unemployment
following the suspension of much foreign aid.
This gives new meaning to the phrase "education is our economy," said
Muhasen
Muhaisen, Chief of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) Education
department
in Gaza, which has been particularly hard hit since Israel stopped tax
transfers
and other countries suspended contributions to the Palestinian
Authority (PA)
following the Hamas election victory in January.
Israel and international donors insist that Hamas, whose charter is
committed to
Israel's destruction, must subscribe to the principles of non-violence,
recognize Israel's right to exist, and accept previous agreements and
obligations, including the UN-backed Roadmap plan providing for two
states
living side by side in peace.
Various UN agencies have warned regularly over the past months of a
looming
humanitarian emergency in the occupied Palestinian territories.
Given the dire economic situation, Mrs. Muhaisen stressed that families
in Gaza
are placing a premium on the education of their children and that the
rock-bottom drop-out rate, an estimated 0.64 percent, reflected this.
She insisted that most parents use the 100 shekels per child for school
expenses
rather than for food: they "closed their mouths [didn't eat] and used
the 100
shekels [per child] for school supplies," she said.
Established in 1949 after the first Israeli-Arab war, UNRWA is the main
provider
of basic services - education, health, relief and social services - to
over 4.3
million registered Palestine refugees in the Middle East.
2006-09-26 00:00:00.000
___________________
For more details go to UN News Centre at http://www.un.org/news
To listen to news and in-depth programmes from UN Radio go to:
http://radio.un.org/
Google Alert - Osama bin Laden tape video
Taliban denies bin Laden's reported death
United Press International - USA
... has refuted press reports about the death of al-Qaida leader Osama
bin Laden stressing that he is ... The last time bin Laden was seen on
a video-tape was in ...
http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20060926-102806-4748r
Breaking news:
KDWN Radio, Las Vegas.
Two 6th graders in hospital, with stab wounds.
Happened at the school.
A third boy has been arrested.
And:
Yesterday, the KDWN news talked of a cement truck that dumped a load of cement on the highway.
Said an accident, cemented 300' of freeway.
Today, the Feds are investigating as well as the owner, there were 2 cement trucks, that had front tires blow out, at almost the same place on the same freeway.
Owner says he maintains his trucks.
{ was it a sniper?...granny}
Reports on oil, terrorism and Russia
http://www.iags.org/reports.htm
The contents turned out to be benign, but the hoaxes resulted in evacuations of four buildings, disruptions of lunchtime traffic and a federal investigation into the source of the letters.
US Agriculture Still Vulnerable To Terrorist Threat – FBI
KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--U.S. agriculture has a long way to go toward hardening itself to a terrorist threat, FBI Deputy Director John Pistole, said Monday.
"The threat from agroterrorism may not be widely recognized, but the threat is real and the impact could be devastating," said Pistole, according to The Associated Press.
U.S. agriculture must remain vigilant and never become complacent, said Pistole at the second International Symposium on Agroterrorism, which is being held in Kansas City this week. The costs are too high, he added.
A terrorist threat could come from any direction, he said. In addition to foreign groups like Al-Qaida or Hezbollah, there are the home-grown terrorist groups as well.
Over the last five years, the U.S. and other countries have weakened Al-Qaida, but it's not dead, he said. The terrorist organization has had its finances disrupted; some safe havens have been removed, and some leaders have been captured, but it's organized and could strike at any time, Pistole warned.
Most of the home-grown groups are small and loosely defined, he said.
The domestic terrorists also have a more varied ideology, Pistole said. Some are driven by animal rights issues. Some have environmental protection on their agenda, and some groups just hate the government, he said.
Ideas that groups like Al-Qaeda won't strike agriculture are misplaced, he said. Some of this group's strongholds held paperwork examining just such a possibility as a way to kill people and to cripple an economy.
While there was no "specific communicated threat at this time," the "absence of a communicated threat does not prove the absence of a threat," he said, according to The AP.
Agriculture employs one of every eight people in the U.S., so anything that hinders domestic consumption or exports has a huge effect, Pistole said.
"The bottom line is that agriculture, just like buildings, bridges and tunnels, is a critical infrastructure in need of defense," he said, according to an AP report.
The way to strengthen the agricultural industry is to "build partnerships" before an attack and to prepare, Pistole said. Preparations at all levels from the smallest producer up to law enforcement agencies should include plans for deterring an attack, training to detect an attack, ways to minimize the effects of an attack and ways to recover quickly from an attack, he said.
Pistole said police departments, the FBI, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Homeland Security already are partners in investigating and finding solutions for agroterrorism.
Source: Lester Aldrich; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5179; lester.aldrich@dowjones.
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=71210
Next terrorist target: U.S. chemical plants
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Imagine if airlines were told in the weeks after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks that the federal government had no plans to increase security at airports.
Imagine if the federal government determined that it would let the airline industry decide for itself whether to beef up security at the nation's airports.
Rather than imposing mandatory security measures on the industry, it would encourage voluntary measures.
Instead, less than a week after the horrific attacks, plans were being made in Washington to take over airport security and significantly alter air travel. As a result, air travel, while sometimes inconvenient, is safer today.
Security at many of the nation's chemical plants, however, is the same today as it was on Sept. 10, 2001.
Five years after the attacks, there is still no federal law that requires chemical plants to adopt security measures to make them less vulnerable to attack, and there is no federal law that requires plants to submit to inspections so the government can assess their vulnerability to terrorists.
For the fourth straight year, legislation giving the federal government the authority to set security standards at chemical plants is being stalled by the industry.
If a chemical plant security bill does emerge from closed-door negotiations, it will likely be very similar to what the industry has been seeking, which will do very little to protect one of the nation's most vulnerable targets.
Last year, Robert Stephan, an assistant secretary at the Department of Homeland Security, told Congress that the voluntary measures are not enough to safeguard the chemical plants.
Yet, six weeks later, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff told industry representatives at a forum co-sponsored by the American Chemical Council, that the federal government would not do anything that would "destroy the businesses we're trying to protect."
Security experts have repeatedly warned that chemical plants are a prime target for terrorists, but Republican leaders in Congress are content to let a special interest undermine the nation's security.
If legislation is passed, we can only hope it contains a provision giving states the authority to impose stricter security regulations on plants.
http://www.masslive.com/editorials/republican/index.ssf?/base/news-1/1159256673295910.xml&coll=1
train derails
Train Derails in Whynot
WTOK - Meridian,MS,USA
Just after 8 am Tuesday, emergency officials were alerted to a train derailment near Whynot, Miss., in the southeast corner of Lauderdale County. ...
Passenger train derails
Gulf Times - Doha,Qatar
DHAKA: A passenger train derailed at the Goalondo Bazaar rail station in Rajbari district yesterday morning, disrupting traffic on the route for five hours. ...
Nats' train derails on way home from NY; none hurt
ESPN - USA
The team's chartered Amtrak train derailed early Tursday morning near Wilmington, Del., as the team returned home from New York. ...
See all stories on this topic
Russia, Iran agree on launch date of nuclear power plant
www.chinaview.cn 2006-09-26 21:16:36
Special report: Iran Nuclear Crisis
MOSCOW, Sept. 26 (Xinhua) -- Russia and Iran have agreed on the launch date of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which is being built with Russian help, Russian news agencies reported on Tuesday.
Sergei Shmatko, president of Russia's Atomstroiexport company which is involved in building the plant, was quoted by the Itar-Tass and Interfax news agencies as saying the two sides had signed an additional protocol that set September 2007 as Bushehr'sstart date and scheduled the delivery of nuclear fuel to Iran for March 2007.
The agreement came after talks in Moscow between Sergei Kiriyenko, head of Russia's Federal Atomic Energy Agency and Gholamreza Aghazadeh, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.
Russia and Iran signed the 1-billion-U.S.-dollar contract for the construction of Iran's first nuclear power plant in 1995. Enditem
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-09/26/content_5141275.htm
Russia's mixed messages threaten oil investment
Financial Times
The mixed messages Russia is sending about the future of some of its biggest foreign-led oil and natural gas projects threaten to undermine international investment even if Moscow fails to act on many of its threats, oil executives and analysts say.
Yuri Trutnev, Russian minister for natural resources, on Tuesday issued a thinly veiled threat to TNK-BP, the Anglo-Russian oil venture, that it could lose its licence to develop a giant Kovykta gas field in eastern Siberia.
Just two days earlier Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, said: "We are a long way from backing out of agreements we have reached, no matter how difficult the conditions were when they were agreed to."
David Clark, chair of the Russia Foundation, a think-tank, said Russia's threats were bad news for consumers: "Russia's increasing tendency towards energy nationalism is happening when it needs to attract more foreign investment, not less, in order to meet projected export demand."
Claude Mandil, executive director of the International Energy Agency, took a more resigned tone, saying: "We have been very cautious for some time [with our supply projections] regarding Russia. We see this kind of policy is not conducive to foreign investment."
But the dip in foreign investment and production growth could be short-lived as long as Moscow moves quickly to implement what oil executives believe it is intent on doing, namely increasing its state companies' role in exploiting its most precious resources.
Joseph Stanislaw, independent adviser to Deloitte and Touche, the accounting and consulting firm, said Russia did not necessarily want to ramp up production too quickly.
"People at the natural resources ministry and various other ministries are asking themselves, 'How much do we really want to produce, and how quickly?'," he said, noting that this had long been a focus of other big oil producers such as Kuwait, which want to keep their resources for future generations.
Giving Gazprom and Rosneft, Russia's main state gas and oil companies, greater control in the big foreign-led projects would give Moscow a better ability to answer that question on its own terms.
Mr Stanislaw said high oil prices had filled Russia's coffers, making it less dependent on immediate production growth and giving it room to play hard ball with international oil companies, none of which had been spared.
But once Russia had redrawn the playing field and international oil companies again had a set of reasonably stable – if less generous – terms, foreign investment was likely to recover, analysts said.
Ann-Louise Hittle, analyst at consultants Wood Mackenzie, said: "Despite sustained pressure on all of the production sharing contracts, we expect Russia output to continue to grow and play an important role in world oil markets. In the next 10 years, we see Russia's crude oil natural gas liquids rising nearly 2m barrels a day from 9.7m b/d in 2006 to 11.6m b/d in 2013."
International oil companies are facing increasingly nationalistic governments in Latin America and are finding few big new oil fields outside the Middle East, much of which is still off limits to foreign oil companies.
This means they will be loath to miss out on Russian opportunities, such as the giant Shtokman gas field, as long as their terms of engagement are clear.
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15016338/
Al Qaeda
NIE: Al Qaeda 'damaged,' becoming more scattered
Garowe Online - Garowe,Nugaal,Somalia
... The NIE findings state that US-led counterterrorism efforts have "seriously damaged" al Qaeda's leadership and operations, but that the group still poses "the ...
See all stories on this topic
Musharraf says Al-Qaeda planned to attack London with European j
Makfax - Skopije,Macedonia
... Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who was arrested in Pakistan in 2003, confessed that Al Qaeda sized up London’s subway for an attack at the same time as it hatched a ...
See all stories on this topic
Islamic Group in Egypt Denies Any Link with Al-Qaeda Affiliated ...
Asharq Alawsat - London,UK
Cairo, Asharq Al-Awsat-As the confrontation between the Islamic group (IG) in Egypt and "Al-Qaeda" organization escalates, Najih Ibrahim, the IG's second-in ...
Pakistani sentenced for trying to sell missiles to Al Qaeda
Daily News & Analysis - Mumbai,India
... A US court has sentenced a Pakistani man to more than 18 years in prison for conspiring to obtain and sell stinger missiles to the Taliban and the Al Qaeda. ...
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British troops kill al-Qaeda figure in Iraq
ABC Online - Australia
MARK COLVIN: British troops in Iraq have killed one of al-Qaeda's most senior operatives there. Omar al Faruq has been described ...
No al-Qaeda leader in Pakistan, says FO
Pakistan Times - Islamabad,Pakistan
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Monday said the al-Qaeda leadership was in Afghanistan and the country had no information on the whereabouts of Mullah Omar or Osama bin ...
See all stories on this topic
Letter Captured After Zarqawi Bombing Shows Friction Within Al ...
Jawa Report - Arlen,TX,USA
... published. The letter-writer, "Atiyah", a so far unidentified al Qaeda leader, promises Zarqawi that he will be brief. Eighteen ...
Al-Qaeda leader in Anbar killed in Tharthar -- state television
Kuwait News Agency - Kuwait
BAGHDAD, Sept 26 (KUNA) -- A joint Iraqi-US force killed Tuesday Al-Qaeda leader in Anbar and one of his aides in the western Iraqi area of Tharthar, said ...
Yes, Our Iraq Policy Has Helped al Qaeda Recruit …
National Review Online Blogs - New York,NY,USA
Another coincidence of Iraq and al Qaeda terrorism, another simplistic Democratic claim of causation between Iraq and al Qaeda terrorism (but, naturally, never ...
See all stories on this topic
Rice challenges Clinton statements on al-Qaeda fight
Globe and Mail - Canada
... made by former president Bill Clinton, saying in an interview published Tuesday that the Bush administration aggressively pursued al-Qaeda even before Sept. ...
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Escaped Al Qaeda chief dies in Iraq
Chicago Tribune - United States
BAGHDAD -- British forces shot and killed a leading Al Qaeda militant Monday, more than a year after he embarrassed the US military by making an unprecedented ...
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Putin urges against panic around Russia's claims on oil field
Source: Trend
Author: À.Mammadov
25.09.2006
(RIA Novosti) - President Vladimir Putin said Saturday that Russia's claims on the Kharyaga oil deposit in northern Russia should cause no panic, reports Trend.
"We have claims but there is nothing in them that should cause panic," he said.
Putin dismissed Friday talk that the license of France's Total oil company for developing the Kharyaga deposit had been revoked as an exaggeration.
In April, the Russian Natural Resources Ministry said Total failed to meet its targets under a production-sharing agreement on the development of the Kharyaga deposit in the north of European Russia.
"Rumors that the license was revoked are strongly exaggerated," Vladimir Putin said.
Total has been developing the Kharyaga deposit under a production-sharing agreement signed in 1995 that came into force on January 1, 1999.
The Russian ministry said in its statement on the company's performance, "Since the [production-sharing] agreement came into force, the investor has failed to fulfill its main aims of increasing production of crude and introducing new technologies and equipment to provide for effective oil and gas production."
Ministry experts warned that the situation could result in losses for Russia, as the country "will have to continue sending the entire deposit's output to the investor in compensation for his expenses."
Total owns a 50% stake in the project, alongside Norway's Hydro (40%) and Russia's Nenets Oil Company (10%).
http://www.trend.az/?mod=shownews&news=28256&lang=en
Russia turns up the heat on BP
ALEX NICHOLSON, Moscow September 26 2006
Russian prosecutors threatened yesterday to revoke the licence of BP's joint venture to develop a giant gas field in Russia's far east.
The move comes amid pressure on a number of foreign-controlled energy projects that observers say is an attempt to secure a bigger role for Russian companies.
The prosecutor general's office said in a statement that the head of RUSIA-Petroleum - a subsidiary of TNK-BP - had been warned that the company was violating the terms of its licence.
A request to revoke the licence would be sent to the Agency for Subsoil Use if the violation were not addressed, the statement said.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/business/70744.html
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1708774/posts
Kyrgyzstan Jet Grazes U.S. Tanker Plane ~ sets US plane on fire....crew of three got out safely
Las Vegas Sun ^ | September 26, 2006 at 13:25:15 PDT | ASSOCIATED PRESS
Posted on 09/26/2006 1:41:29 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan (AP) - A Kyrgyz passenger jet on Tuesday grazed a U.S. military tanker plane while taking off from an airport near the Kyrgyz capital, setting the American aircraft ablaze. Nobody was injured, officials said.
Kyrgyz Airlines' Tu-154 passenger jet carrying 52 passengers and nine crew en route to the southern city of Osh, then to Moscow hit the U.S. aircraft standing on the tarmac of the Manas airport that also houses a U.S. military air base, said airport spokeswoman Ainura Tentieva.
The U.S. base said in a brief statement that a KC-135 tanker plane caught fire at Manas, but its crew of three got out safely and nobody was injured. It gave no other details.
Kyrgyz authorities closed the airport for several hours, and an official investigation was under way.
The U.S. military has maintained the Manas air base since 2001 to back operations in nearby Afghanistan.
>>>There is in Colorado, with finance and one named WTC bldg.
I saw that - definitely an eye-opener.
If the addresses add up...hmmmm, now wouldn't that be interesting.
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