Posted on 08/02/2006 10:07:55 PM PDT by thackney
Tropical Storm Chris will likely cross the threshold into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane early next week, possibly developing into the first serious threat this year to U.S. oil and natural gas facilities. As of 2 p.m. EDT, the center of the storm was about 100 miles northeast of St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and moving west-northwest at about 10 miles per hour, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts.
"Chris could become a hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours," the NHC said. NHC forecasts place Chris in the Gulf Monday morning. The timing of Chris' arrival coincides with the start of the hurricane season's most intense period - the months of August and September. Although the storm is still several days away from the network of offshore wells and pipelines that feed the U.S. Gulf Coast refining hub, it's sparked fears of a possible repeat of the devastating 2005 season that culminated with the double-whammy of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
"At the expense of comparing Chris to a historical hurricane, it should be pointed out that Chris will be following closely in the path footsteps of Rita last year," private weather forecaster Weather 2000 said in a note.
Predictions for Chris' strengthening and trajectory pushed energy futures higher on Wednesday. The front-month crude oil contract rose almost $1 to settle at $75.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas futures, which had rallied all week on record heat across the U.S., settled 22.5 cents higher at $7.799 a million British thermal units.
Rita, which made landfall in September, knocked out the heart of the U.S. refining hub, home to the nation's largest crude oil processing plants.
Both Katrina and Rita wreaked extensive damage to facilities both on- and offshore.
Energy major Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) said Wednesday it's monitoring Tropical Storm Chris "closely," although the weather system hasn't yet had an impact on drilling or producing operations.
"No evacuations of personnel are taking place at this time," Shell said in a statement. "Plans are in place to begin evacuating personnel non-essential to drilling or producing operations, if warranted."
In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Shell produces 267,000 barrels a day of oil and 1.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas, 70% of the company's U.S. hydrocarbons volumes.
Whether or not Tropical Storm Chris intensifies - and by how much - will depend on how well it navigates through islands in the Caribbean. If there's no further intensification, the storm should move toward the south Texas Gulf Coast will landfall late next week, said Jim Rouiller, senior meteorologist with forecaster Planalytics.
"If sea surface temperatures result in intensification to a Category 2 or higher hurricane, then the winds are not in control of the steering, which opens the threat to the entire Gulf Coast and western Florida," Rouiller said in a note.
When I heard this on the news, I thought:
"Oh, Tropical Storm Chris Matthews is going to hit Florida? That's not surprising."
MOVE THE SCHOOL BUSES, NAGIN!
I just checked the NHC site. The track is shifted more to south and will go over Cuba. It's now forecast to remain a tropical storm and may not even hold together until it gets to the gulf.
It's Bush's fault...
Damn right it's Bush's fault. After 2008, we won't have any more hurricane seasons. Can't wait. /wink
Oh Lordy.
Nothing is happening in the Gulf, or here in the Great Lakes that intimates any sort of conspiracy (and neither is there anything that effect going on to that affect in the Mid-East either). So there.
Well, I hope there will be a live thread on this one in the next few days.
I made the mistake of correcting someone on the first Fidel "Gastro" thread who said Karl Rove needed to get the hurricane machine in place. I said it was already nearby and that Chris (who didn't quite exist at the moment I said it) might be headed that way, but could miss Cuba, if it stayed north or broke up over Hispaniola.
Then, I said that's if Rove doesn't change his mind in the next few days (which would be *today*).
Now I see that Rove has refocused that sucker towards my house and I want to put out my white flag of surrender and tell him I'm sorry I second-guessed his hurricane machine and to please spare my life this time around.
*Please, Karl? Send Chris somewhere else! Please?*
Doh.. you beat me. You RoveCraftian horror.
-- soon, we will control the Universe:
Bad news for the Weather Channel people, hoe. The storm weakend overnight and it's encountering shear. The weather freaks were gearing up for this one...
Whatever happened overnight, it looks like Chris may have lost some of it's integrity and it's dropped in wind speed from 65 to 45. That could change and it could reconstitute as the day continues and it warms up again, but the fact that it slowed down is a good sign. I also like the trajectory right over Cuba (God protect the innocents there.) It give it less travel over warm water so that's good for the mainland and it may not have time to build up too much speed before it hits Cuba. If it hits at a lower wind speed it could fall apart completely there, though. Then again, what do I know? I didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night or anything...
Here's to hoping it doesn't even make it that far.
As Rush says, the media is predicting "news" that they hope will happen.
I just saw a comment on Little Green Footballs by "Ed of the many names."
( His screen name is something like Ed Al Hoquar Martyrs Brigade and he's the resident amateur weatherman who is supposedly more accurate than the pros. )
He mentioned something about a Canadian cold front knocking the stuffing out of Chris.
Certainly hope so.
It's the curse of the "Chris" named storm. They rotate the names every six years. The "Chris" storms from 1988, 1994 and 2000 never amounted to anything more than a tropical storm. This "Chris" looks doomed as well.
Canadian cold front? We need one of those here in NC where the heat and humidity are combining to produce heat indexes in excess of 100 degrees.
That's no curse. That's a blessing. They should name them all Chris.
I think by the time it gets here, the term "cold" is kind of relative- it's hotter than the hinges of Hades in Georgia.
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