Waxman ....Congressional Committee for Stemcell and Nose Hair Research
Posted on 07/30/2006 2:06:41 PM PDT by rface
Rush Limbaugh announced on his show that the GOP house internal polling shows a circa 30 seat loss for 2006.
It is hard for me to write much on this subject, as internal polling is secretive and not generaly available to public scrutiny. But there are some thoughts for discussion here.
One, is Rush correct? I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever. I believe Rush has reported what he has gleaned from a GOP member of congress or a staffer.
Two, is the information correct? Is it a leak, or a misinformation campaign? I guess I don't see much value in leaking incorrect data to Rush exagerating a potential house loss. So I tend to believe the leaker was being accurate.
Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported. Once millions of Rush listeners have the info, it is already public and so I offer it here for your analysis.
Four, implications? Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.
Implications go beyond this too. With the recent failure of the GOP by raising the minimum wage and cutting (but enshrining) a major tax, and with no movement on issues like arctic and offshore drilling, the slow pace of federal court appointments, and unreal spending, the GOP is losing the base. Despite our war on terror and a robust economy, Americans see casualty numbers and gas prices.
Having just adjourned for a recess, I see little the house can do other than campaign localy in the near term. If we blow this election we have no one to blame other than ourselves (a moderate to liberal GOP senate and a spend happy house).
"Where have you gone Ronald Reagan, a nation turns it's lonely eyes to you".
Got a link/reference for Novak being a registered Rat?
Oh, susie .. my goodness. Could you .. would you seriously vote for the worse of the evils for this country?
Not at all. And remember, a lot of folks who say they hate Bush don't vote. I know many people in their mid thirties who are very opinionated and vocal against Bush. By son and a niece are two of them. But they don't vote.
We WON'T win both open seats. The one in NJ is Bob Menendez' old seat, heavily Dem and Hispanic. The seat in Texas is Delay's district, and we can't count on winning that one, either.
Right now, we have 231 seats in the House. We don't have the seat in NJ (a Dem is in it now, temporarily, and a Dem will win a 2-year term in November). Delay is not currently serving, and given the opprobium attached to him, we can't consider him the "incumbent" who will win if he remains on the ballot.
Again, we have 231 seats right now. IF WE LOSE 14 SEATS WE CURRENTLY HAVE, we will fall to 217, and lose the Hose, unless we win a seat we do NOT currently have (Delay's seat), which is unoccupied.
Delay won re-election in 2004 by 55-41 (38,000 vote margin over the Dem, out of 272,000 votes cast). Delay was running neck-and-neck in that District with all the media "scandal" attention in recent polls, which is why he retired and tried to get his name off the ballot.
People in Texas would know how the race is currently trending, but no one really knows if Delay will be on the ballot or not, to my knowledge.
So, if we win Delay's seat, we would have to lose 15 current seats to fall to 217. So a 14-15 seat loss could hand control to Pelosi and Co., depending on how Delay's seat ends up.
Wouldn't it be amazing if we lost 14 seats, but Delay (or his replacement) won?!? That would put us at 218-217, drive the liberals nuts, and defections, retirements, indictments and caucus votes would have us all on pins and needles for control of the House.
I'm referring to the posts you directed at me Sherlock.
"We going to seriously miss the RINOs when PELOSI, BARNEY FRANK, and JOHN CONYERS and other radicals and Liberals are running the House."
"No loyal American would let that happen willingly."
Really? I wish it were so!
Listen to this idiot, ready to hand Ted Kennedy the Justice Committee gavel, because of his unfounded view of executive branch "encroachments" and a bizarre belief that Reagan would go for a turncoat Democrat egotist:
The best candidate
Let me state that I am a Republican who has supported George Allen several times in the past, but I think that support has run out. This has nothing to do with the man himself. He has served well enough for many years, and I thank him for it, but his rival this November, James Webb, is simply the better candidate. Simply looking at the two men George Allen looks to for guidance, Thomas Jefferson and Ronald Reagan, we can find good reason to vote against him.
I believe these two obviously great men would choose James Webb in the upcoming election. Allen’s apparent support for the encroachment of executive powers onto other branches of the government would have Jefferson turning in his grave, whereas Webb has stated he wishes to bring strength and leadership to the legislative branch, far and away Jefferson’s preferred branch. Ronald Reagan has already shown his support for Webb by choosing him as his Secretary of the Navy. This November I’m going to side with Reagan and Jefferson like I always have.
Philip Schuyler
Alexandria
http://www.alextimes.com/article.asp?article=3834&paper=1&cat=142
"We have unemployment under 5% how low do you want it go???
What's so special about 5%? I want unemployment to go as low as the market will bear without government interference."
Demographics and the dynamics of the economy itself (non-zero time to go from one job to another in a fluid labor market) make an unemployment rate much lower than that nearly impossible. It's why even 5% unemployment is called "full employment" by economists.
WE HAVE A GREAT ECONOMY. It's the media's biggest and best-kept secret.
"Which it is happening.. I do see a lot of people driving SUV and living in big houses.. Yes there are some problems in some areas.. Mainly in states with high taxes.. Case in point in Illinois.. This state ranks 46th in job creation. I blame it on the fact that our num nut Gov keeps raising taxes and spending our money like it there is no tomorrow. What I'm doing is moving elsewhere.."
Michigan and New Jersey have the same problems ... that's what you get with Democrat governors. tax-and-spend: Do the people never learn???
Lets see now. CFR, Uncle Ted's education bill, Open orders and try to reward those that break our laws with citizenship. What would the conservative base have to be angry about?
GOOD POINT.
Rush is never one to panic or be a doom-and-gloomer. Folks, our positions are *RIGHT* and so the only thing we have to fear is the triumph of lies and stupidity. ... speaking of that, Luskin's website "The Conspiracy to Keep you Poor and Stupid" does a good job of tracking the anti-freedom goons:
http://www.poorandstupid.com/chronicle.asp
"Prices stay stable, salaries go up, and most people enjoy a higher standard of living."
Interesting, that describes what is happening today. US standard of living is going up, wages are up, employment is up, economy is strong. commodities are strong mainly because of the strong global economy.
you are being gulled by the socialists if you think doom-n-gloom.
http://www.poorandstupid.com/chronicle.asp
"The average man doesn't vote by THINKING about things. He votes based on what he FEELS. "
Republicans are THINKING party.
Democrats are FEELING party.
Anyone who votes based on emotions like you cite (based on witless half-truths like the lie that good jobs are not available) ... will vote for demagogues who play to base emotions.
"This is just a leak to stimulate donations and circle the wagons, IMHO."
Which needs to happen!!!
Folks, this is like seeing a prediction of a battle before it happens. The outcome is not cast in stone. It aint over until its over... but the terrain is hostile, our 'side' is fatigued and we face a lot of big challenges.
what we DO know is the issues the democrats have and the need to respond to them:
- on the economy and to defend the rightness of tax cuts
- on the Iraq war and to defend Bush's policies and the need to pursue victory instead of the Democrat 'cut and run' plan
- on social issues, to defend the family
- to refute the moonbat charges of Bush being a fascist who invented the war on terror to, well, spy on .. er, terrorists!?! (it makes no sense, but the nonsense needs to be debunked!)
And the need to get in trenches and help win the races that are out there. Better to be prepared for the battle royale than complacent in the brewing storm. It *will* be a tough year but we *wont* lose the House or senate if we pull together, stay focussed and positive, and work hard to defeat the leftists and gain a victory for Republicans.
The biggest problem with us is us."
Yes it is!!
"I am not excited about us right now because we doubled the size of the budget."
NO WE DIDNT. %age of GDP basis its lower than under Reagan!
discretionary spending this year is below the rate of inflation increase (admittedly after some big increases in 2001-2004, but its better controlled now).
" We have left the borders wide open."
not fully true. catch-and-release is (finally) being ended.
we could do better but dont say we are doing nothing and dont infer that Dems wouldnt be much worse, they want open borders and the pro-enforcement Reps are all republicans!
"We have made some huge mistakes in Iraq."
We have made huge PROGRESS in Iraq, too!
" We have failed to counter the liberal media onslaught."
And your solution is to repeat some of the MSM spin! LOL, yes we *are* our own worst enemy.
Congress could do better, but it is 100% because of not enough conservatives. More Democracts in there to fix above problems is like using gasoline to put out a fire.
The will - cut-n-run in Iraq; raise taxes hurting the economy; expand MSM lies and nonsense; and further increase spending.
No surprise there. Coulter only talks about what Rove wants her to discuss. Rove is right most of the time, but on the immigration crisis and usurping the Constitution simply because we have a bunch of lazy desk sailors running our intelligence network is what is POing the base.
It's sure POing me when the best thing a Georgia boy can do for his country in the voting booth is to cross over during a runoff to vote against some blathering anti American magpie like McKinney.
Don't worry. It's just the "J-E-W-S"!
Scary, ain't it?
No matter how you rationalize it, you've got a choice: them or us.
Waxman ....Congressional Committee for Stemcell and Nose Hair Research
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