We WON'T win both open seats. The one in NJ is Bob Menendez' old seat, heavily Dem and Hispanic. The seat in Texas is Delay's district, and we can't count on winning that one, either.
Right now, we have 231 seats in the House. We don't have the seat in NJ (a Dem is in it now, temporarily, and a Dem will win a 2-year term in November). Delay is not currently serving, and given the opprobium attached to him, we can't consider him the "incumbent" who will win if he remains on the ballot.
Again, we have 231 seats right now. IF WE LOSE 14 SEATS WE CURRENTLY HAVE, we will fall to 217, and lose the Hose, unless we win a seat we do NOT currently have (Delay's seat), which is unoccupied.
Delay won re-election in 2004 by 55-41 (38,000 vote margin over the Dem, out of 272,000 votes cast). Delay was running neck-and-neck in that District with all the media "scandal" attention in recent polls, which is why he retired and tried to get his name off the ballot.
People in Texas would know how the race is currently trending, but no one really knows if Delay will be on the ballot or not, to my knowledge.
So, if we win Delay's seat, we would have to lose 15 current seats to fall to 217. So a 14-15 seat loss could hand control to Pelosi and Co., depending on how Delay's seat ends up.
Wouldn't it be amazing if we lost 14 seats, but Delay (or his replacement) won?!? That would put us at 218-217, drive the liberals nuts, and defections, retirements, indictments and caucus votes would have us all on pins and needles for control of the House.