Posted on 07/30/2006 2:06:41 PM PDT by rface
Rush Limbaugh announced on his show that the GOP house internal polling shows a circa 30 seat loss for 2006.
It is hard for me to write much on this subject, as internal polling is secretive and not generaly available to public scrutiny. But there are some thoughts for discussion here.
One, is Rush correct? I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever. I believe Rush has reported what he has gleaned from a GOP member of congress or a staffer.
Two, is the information correct? Is it a leak, or a misinformation campaign? I guess I don't see much value in leaking incorrect data to Rush exagerating a potential house loss. So I tend to believe the leaker was being accurate.
Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported. Once millions of Rush listeners have the info, it is already public and so I offer it here for your analysis.
Four, implications? Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.
Implications go beyond this too. With the recent failure of the GOP by raising the minimum wage and cutting (but enshrining) a major tax, and with no movement on issues like arctic and offshore drilling, the slow pace of federal court appointments, and unreal spending, the GOP is losing the base. Despite our war on terror and a robust economy, Americans see casualty numbers and gas prices.
Having just adjourned for a recess, I see little the house can do other than campaign localy in the near term. If we blow this election we have no one to blame other than ourselves (a moderate to liberal GOP senate and a spend happy house).
"Where have you gone Ronald Reagan, a nation turns it's lonely eyes to you".
Conservatives get "hosed" far worse if the crew depicted above takes the reins. I agree that the Repub party needs to move to the right, but let's not forget the differences between the parties.
Good question. I have no idea of precise numbers/ratios.
If you don't vote for the GOP, you're giving this country over to the liberals.
And they will NEVER let go of that power once they get it back.
The first thing Hillary and some of her pals want to do is dismantle the Electoral College.
If you can live with that, go right ahead.
Let's see...Iraq, deficit, trade, immigration, social security, H1-B's, increasing interest rates, and increasing energy prices. All contribute to the perceptions of the incumbent party.
Please do not shoot the messenger. I merely state that I regard the above as the reasons for the polls. Yes, I realize that many of them are beyond the control of the Congress or the President. No, it isn't all Bush's fault. No, I don't want Hillary in. Standard disclaimers apply. Void where prohibited. Don't read before driving.
And there's a thunderstorm coming, so I'd better get my young'uns into the bunker!
Given that Novak admits to being a registered RAT I am always wary of what he reports. Some reporters may still report objectively but mostly I suspect ulterior motives to be lurking especially when it comes to President Bush and Republicans.
Apart from being unfunny, why vote for Kinky Friedman?
It is my understanding that in 1994 there were a number of open seats in play. I believe it was something like 50. This was due to the fact the election law was changed and incumbents could not any more take campaign money they had accumulated while in office with them after that date for personnel use after leaving office. The majority of those retiring were in the South and were Democrats. Political make up of the area had changed so when the Democratic incumbents were not running the GOP candidates won. That is the the reason the GOP picked up so many seats during that election. My exact facts may not be correct but the general idea is. May be somebody out there knows more about this than I do.
Most campaigns have not even done internal polling yet because it is a waste of time in the summer. Rush and others forget that Congressional seats are local elections and you cannot take nationwide numbers for them because the people on the coasts are not going to vote the same as flyover country.
Oklahoma will maintain its same 4-1 split. Might as well be 5-0 because Boren votes more with the GOP then the Dems. We just had our primary and it was rumored that Sullivan from Tulsa might go down but he clobbered the people that ran against him.
I think this is a bunch of Bravo Sierra and I cannot remember the last time Rush got polling right. IMO he has lost his edge completely. People also have to remember that not every Republican is a conservative which seems lost by so many on here. You cannot elect a conservative in some areas but the naysayers on here cannot seem to get it through their minds. Would bet they don't come from the Conservative Republican south and flyover country.
Since Coulter and Rush are talking about it at the same time...it makes one wonder if the Republican leadership want this information out there early so Conservative will think twice about sitting this election out. I mean, look who the messengers were.....Anyone agree with me on this one?
So the best you can do is hit and run personal attacks eh?
Trying to get the base out to vote?
Not even a possibility -- Neither Coulter nor Limbaugh are lackeys/messengers for the RNC.
You're joking right? You don't think that if asked by party leadership to do this, they would?
Hopefully you are absolutely correct.
You're both wrong. If we lose 16 or more, we lose the House.
Pucky?
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