Posted on 07/30/2006 2:06:41 PM PDT by rface
Rush Limbaugh announced on his show that the GOP house internal polling shows a circa 30 seat loss for 2006.
It is hard for me to write much on this subject, as internal polling is secretive and not generaly available to public scrutiny. But there are some thoughts for discussion here.
One, is Rush correct? I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever. I believe Rush has reported what he has gleaned from a GOP member of congress or a staffer.
Two, is the information correct? Is it a leak, or a misinformation campaign? I guess I don't see much value in leaking incorrect data to Rush exagerating a potential house loss. So I tend to believe the leaker was being accurate.
Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported. Once millions of Rush listeners have the info, it is already public and so I offer it here for your analysis.
Four, implications? Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.
Implications go beyond this too. With the recent failure of the GOP by raising the minimum wage and cutting (but enshrining) a major tax, and with no movement on issues like arctic and offshore drilling, the slow pace of federal court appointments, and unreal spending, the GOP is losing the base. Despite our war on terror and a robust economy, Americans see casualty numbers and gas prices.
Having just adjourned for a recess, I see little the house can do other than campaign localy in the near term. If we blow this election we have no one to blame other than ourselves (a moderate to liberal GOP senate and a spend happy house).
"Where have you gone Ronald Reagan, a nation turns it's lonely eyes to you".
So far you have not presented any facts. All I've see you do is flame and attack.
I want names. I want to know what Republicans are going to lose their seats. J.D. Hayworth? Gimme a break. The Portman seat is safe in OH (that was once thought "contested"). The only GOP losses I can even remotely discern are Ney in OH and Hostetler in IN.
Bzzzzzttt!! Wrong!! (Familiar territory for you, Rummy) I've presented more facts than probably any one on this thread.
Again, generics are worthless in House and even Senate races. Redistricting means you can have one party ahead generically by 10 and still lose 20 seats.
Worth thousands of words.
We both know for the Dems to net 30, they'd have to sweep every race.
This is just a leak to stimulate donations and circle the wagons, IMHO.
"Feelings, gotta have those feelings..."
Like it or not, that is the way the average Joe judges things.
He is not a politically aware creature, and doesn't follow politics the way many of us on this forum do.
It was "feelings" about things that put the GOP on top, and I'm afraid it will be "feelings" that takes them back down.
If it's not about feelings, tell me why John Kerry almost won with absolutely no coherent statements coming out of his mouth.
He had no plan at all, and he ALMOST won!
Anyone with half a brain and one eye open could see that, but he almost pulled it off.
Explain that as ANYTHING but feelings!
I'd like to know the specific seats ANY Dem thinks he or she can win. I can't come up with more than 10, and most of those are leaning Republican.
I'm more worried about the GOP in the Senate, and that's mostly because of the huge Dem fundraising advantage there (DSCC vs. NRSC). The House isn't even a mild concern at this point. If someone can produce real (not rumored) polls in mid to late October even approaching the rhetoric on this thread, then maybe I'll wring my hands once or twice.
Go ahead and be specific. There is no reason to be mysterious.
Sorry I'm not dope who votes on feelings, but I rather think on how I vote.. That is just me.......
"Stark? I thought you claimed there was NO difference?? Are you now admitting that you're engaged in the usual rhetorical garbage?"
I said there is no difference when it comes to the growth of government. That is the only important objective measure.
You seem to be moving from point to point, instead of engaging the issue at hand, and the subject of the thread. If that's all you have, what you call "rhetorical garbage", then I think our discussion is over. If you have something substantive to debate related to this matter, then by all means, this would be a good time to bring it up.
You must have loved the economy under Jimmy Carter. America is supposed to be great, not mediocre.
Not really.. One more thing, I heard the same BS about the economy when Reagan was President.. The economy is doing fine for chirst sake...
"Sorry I'm not dope who votes on feelings"
No. It's pretty obvious you aren't.
I'm just saying that there are many people who do, and things are pretty unsettling right now.
Like I said, the average Joe.....
I think we have good reason to be worried.
The spinlessrepublicans have brought this on to themselves. The GOP needs to get back to their base.
No loyal American would let that happen willingly.
Well, it appears we just misunderstood one another.
Bushmeister was under the impression that if we lost six seats, we "lose" the House. You responded, no, 30!
Technically I was right; if we lose 16 seats, the Dems gain control.
I don't think it's likely we'll lose anywhere near 30 seats, I think that's a "booga-booga!" worst case scenario. I don't think we'll lose control of the House, but I find the loss of a handful of seats possible.
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