Posted on 07/30/2006 2:06:41 PM PDT by rface
Rush Limbaugh announced on his show that the GOP house internal polling shows a circa 30 seat loss for 2006.
It is hard for me to write much on this subject, as internal polling is secretive and not generaly available to public scrutiny. But there are some thoughts for discussion here.
One, is Rush correct? I don't think Rush makes it up as he goes along. He is human, and can make errors (as can anybody talking solo for 15 hours a week). But I haven't known him to lie outright on a political matter ever. I believe Rush has reported what he has gleaned from a GOP member of congress or a staffer.
Two, is the information correct? Is it a leak, or a misinformation campaign? I guess I don't see much value in leaking incorrect data to Rush exagerating a potential house loss. So I tend to believe the leaker was being accurate.
Three, should Rush have reported this (and should I write about it)? No to the first part. Internal polling is not meant to be leaked or reported. Once millions of Rush listeners have the info, it is already public and so I offer it here for your analysis.
Four, implications? Internal polling isn't the "for public" polling that you get from groups like Zogby, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. Internal polling is the hard core, scientific, no spin accurate stuff that the candidates and the parties get and is held close to their vests. Only the best of the best work directly for the parties and candidates. My point is that if the information Rush reported is accurate, there are dark times ahead.
Implications go beyond this too. With the recent failure of the GOP by raising the minimum wage and cutting (but enshrining) a major tax, and with no movement on issues like arctic and offshore drilling, the slow pace of federal court appointments, and unreal spending, the GOP is losing the base. Despite our war on terror and a robust economy, Americans see casualty numbers and gas prices.
Having just adjourned for a recess, I see little the house can do other than campaign localy in the near term. If we blow this election we have no one to blame other than ourselves (a moderate to liberal GOP senate and a spend happy house).
"Where have you gone Ronald Reagan, a nation turns it's lonely eyes to you".
"When a voter can't tell the difference between these two parties, then the GOP has absolutely nothing to worry about because there's little it can do to correct such a woefully warped perception."
If the difference is so stark, why is the GOP worried about losing 30 seats?
Will the strategy for dealing with this concern be to move to the right or the left?
The answer should be clear that Republicans are demonstrably different than democrats, so a conservative turn would be the obvious answer. What isn't so obvious is that the GOP wants to be different when it comes to big government.
So time will tell. I simply don't know what they will do, and neither do you. That, my friend is the problem.
Do you mean back before we had a Republican big government president? And why would anyone apologize for a red hot economy with low inflation and low unemployment? Deflation worries were unfounded.
Excuse me. Do you want to speak up?
Which it is happening.. I do see a lot of people driving SUV and living in big houses.. Yes there are some problems in some areas.. Mainly in states with high taxes.. Case in point in Illinois.. This state ranks 46th in job creation. I blame it on the fact that our num nut Gov keeps raising taxes and spending our money like it there is no tomorrow. What I'm doing is moving elsewhere..
We have unemployment under 5% how low do you want it go???
"If no Republican utters the word "comprehensive" out loud for the next 100 days, everything will be fine."
LOL!
So true!
What's so special about 5%? I want unemployment to go as low as the market will bear without government interference.
Guess what pal it is not gonna happen..
When I heard it, my thought was well what are you maroons doing about it.
Isn't the plan to come up with a minimum wage bill then attach some hard core conservative poison pills to the bill so Dems vote against it?
When GWB took office he decided too push demand ahead of supply and to grow the government. When that happens prices go up, and more often than not wages don't keep pace. I live in a state where there is very low unemployment, and real estate prices and rents have skyrocketed, yet wages are still the same. I'm lucky because I own a home, but I know people who are having a tough time making ends meet.
Guess what pal.. Things are suppose to be tough not easy..
"the disconnect was always there, but the illegals issue really opened the eyes of some sheeple. support for agressive border control has been and remains HUGE and the government simply does not want to do it, and they drag their feet when it is mandated."
I agree. Look at the situation as many Americans see it:
1)People ARE losing good jobs and having to find whatever they can. Whether this is primarily due to illegal immigration or not is a moot point. People BELIEVE it is.
2)Because our government refuses to enforce the laws of this country, the "law and order party" comes across as disingenuous and uncaring and in the pockets of "big business". The Dems on the other hand are PERCEIVED to have the interest of the "little guy" at heart. Even though they don't.
3)We are at war, and the government is doing nothing to secure our borders. It doesn't matter why. People do not understand this. (neither do I)
4)Health care costs are way up and many people believe that they are paying for illegal immigrants.
The average man doesn't vote by THINKING about things. He votes based on what he FEELS.
And he ain't feeling too good right about now.
He's pissed and someone's gonna pay.
You're having a great deal of difficulty keeping up. Are you sure you wanna try that SecDef thing? It's a LOT of work.
Stark? I thought you claimed there was NO difference?? Are you now admitting that you're engaged in the usual rhetorical garbage?
Nope. You know exactly when I meant. Kinda sucks when people pay attention to your nonsense and then call you on it, huh?
GOP will lose the house 9 votes - 33 %
GOP will come close to losing the house 10 votes - 37 %
GOP will lose a very few seats 5 votes - 18 %
No change 0 votes - 0 %
GOP small gain 3 votes - 11 %
GOP moderate gain 0 votes - 0 %
GOP wave 0 votes - 0 %
Feelings, gotta have those feelings...
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