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Why Worry? (Oil Prices)
Forbes ^ | July 24, 2006 | Daniel Fisher

Posted on 07/10/2006 9:43:52 PM PDT by bruinbirdman

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1 posted on 07/10/2006 9:43:55 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
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To: bruinbirdman

In light of all of this I would like to know two things. #1, what has caused a seven fold incres in prices? And no, I am not stupid or ignorant, it is a legitimate question. and #2, when will the obviously overinflated price of oil drop?


2 posted on 07/10/2006 9:55:55 PM PDT by phoenix0468 (http://www.mylocalforum.com -- Go Speak Your Mind.)
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To: phoenix0468
Answer: Increased demand and fear of supply disruption are the main causes for the rise in prices. The price will go down if supply increases, fear subsides, and/or demand decreases. A drop of 7% in total use would drop prices significantly. People have slowed their use by very little so far, as the price doesn't bother them enough yet to change their behavior.

I have a Nissan Maxima, 265 horsepower, 0-60 mph in 6.3 seconds. I get 24 mpg in town and 32 on the highway if I keep my foot out of it, so to speak. Mostly I keep my foot out of it, allowing myself a little fun from time to time. Gas is cheap, and I'm driving as much as I want.

When gas prices get too high, consumption will decline, and so will prices. $3 a gallon will have no effect on my driving, maybe $4 will, we'll see.
3 posted on 07/10/2006 10:20:35 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Free Iran! WARNING! Forbidden Cartoon: .. . *-O)) :-{>. . . .)
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To: phoenix0468

It's not overinflated--it's finally up to normal.


4 posted on 07/10/2006 10:24:11 PM PDT by Rte66
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To: phoenix0468
Many factors have gone into the increase in the price of oil. The environmental ban premium has always been there. What's new is the 911 premium, GWB's weak dollar premium, GWB's demand side policy premium, the Iraq war premium, the unrest in Nigeria premium, the kook in Venezuela premium, the hurricane premium, the kook in Iran premium, and the kook in North Korea premium. I may have left out a couple, but you get the idea.

I posted the above on another thread earlier today. One must also remember that when oil was $12 a bbl it was artificially low due to an overly strong dollar and economic problems in Asia.

5 posted on 07/10/2006 10:34:39 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: phoenix0468
1) SPECULATORS

2) The Democrats/environmental wackos unwillingness to support USA drilling for oil

3) President Bush's (and the Republican senate and congress's) unwillingness to put a full court press on GENUINE ENERGY POLICY/REFORM.

Energy and the lack thereof is a direct threat to our national security, he should present an executive order to drill in Anwar and everywhere else we have proven oil reserves. He should also provide for new refineries and nuclear power plants in order to limit our dependence on oil being sold by people who hate our country, who openly support our enemies and who want to see us converted, enslaved to Islam or dead.

Why worry? Because this energy crisis is killing us as a nation and hurting millions of middle class and poor Americans and it is only going to get worse. Sure the rich and the speculators are not impacted, but EVERYONE ELSE in America is.

6 posted on 07/10/2006 10:39:20 PM PDT by Jmouse007 (Convert, Slavery or Death = "Islam the Religion of Peace tm" "It's time to play Cowboys and Muslims")
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To: phoenix0468
A very little-noted (at the time) fact from several years ago was a major reason for the rise in oil prices - when China changed from a net exporter to a net importer of oil. I bet you don't remember seeing that factoid on the front page of the paper. When I saw that, buried deep in the financial section, I knew things were going to change at the pump in a bad way.

If you expect oil prices to collapse any time soon, you are sadly mistaken. Some pin the blame on a supposed "Iraq war premium," but that would have faded out by now. It's all suppy and demand, and the Asian countries are behind the surging demand.

Incidentally, I don't really mind the high gasoline prices, though I probably have to use more than most folks who post here due to my job. The reason is that I know that the high prices are keeping that oil coming here instead of to China or some other place.

7 posted on 07/10/2006 10:42:33 PM PDT by KellyAdmirer
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To: Rte66

perhaps...but now lets get our paychecks up to normal to compensate!


8 posted on 07/10/2006 10:44:12 PM PDT by annelizly
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To: Jmouse007

" ... an executive order to drill in Anwar and everywhere else we have proven oil reserves. He should also provide for new refineries and nuclear power plants in order to limit our dependence on oil being sold by people who hate our country, who openly support our enemies and who want to see us converted, enslaved to Islam or dead. .."

All of which requires an even higher price for oil than we have now. The companies who do those things are just now recovering to profitability from the years of $12/bbl in the not-so-distant past.

They need profits for reinvestment in order to go forward.


9 posted on 07/10/2006 10:48:26 PM PDT by Rte66
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To: annelizly

Unfortunately, the equilibrium isn't disrupted. We're just all used to cheap oil & gasoline.

See this in the thread-starting article?

" ... Gas was at 7.2% of consumer spending 20 years ago--but it is at only half that rate today (3.7%). ..."


10 posted on 07/10/2006 10:51:13 PM PDT by Rte66
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To: Jmouse007

"this energy crisis is killing us"

No, it's not.

"Gas was at 7.2% of consumer spending 20 years ago--but it is at only half that rate today (3.7%). As a slice of the U.S. GDP, gasoline is down by a third, to 3%."

Try reading the article, gas is cheap in real terms. That's why the streets are still crowded with cars, or haven't you noticed?


11 posted on 07/10/2006 10:53:15 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Free Iran! WARNING! Forbidden Cartoon: .. . *-O)) :-{>. . . .)
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To: Rte66

Great minds, and all that!


12 posted on 07/10/2006 10:54:08 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Free Iran! WARNING! Forbidden Cartoon: .. . *-O)) :-{>. . . .)
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To: SaxxonWoods

and as long as the RINO's and Dems stop drilling in our own country the supply isn't likely to increase as the people doing the providing manipulate the supply.


13 posted on 07/10/2006 10:57:47 PM PDT by Arizona Carolyn
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To: SaxxonWoods

LOL, no kidding!


14 posted on 07/10/2006 11:18:55 PM PDT by Rte66
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To: Rte66

I agree


15 posted on 07/10/2006 11:21:31 PM PDT by woofie ("Romper, bomper, stomper, boo. Tell me, tell me, tell me do.Magic mirror, tell me today. Did all ...)
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To: SaxxonWoods
"The price will go down if supply increases,"

I understand that in Saudi Arabia there are only 300 producing wells and they haven't drilled in over 50 years. I don't know if they even have a refinery.

yitbos

16 posted on 07/10/2006 11:23:51 PM PDT by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds.")
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To: phoenix0468

spot market deals with options.


17 posted on 07/11/2006 1:44:59 AM PDT by Rummenigge
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To: Jmouse007
this energy crisis is killing us as a nation and hurting millions of middle class and poor Americans and it is only going to get worse.

Howard?
Howard Dean, is that you?

I don't believe your extremist rhetoric, mainly because I have seen NO decline in the number of gas-fueled vehicles on the roads.

18 posted on 07/11/2006 4:05:44 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: phoenix0468
what has caused a seven fold incres in prices

First ask what caused the drop to $10 /bbl in 1999, by far the lowest price in history, in real $?

The Asian economic slump. Oil is a volitile commodity, where supply and demand are fairly nicely balanced world-wide. A sharp drop or rise in demand creates a "glut" or "shortage" that causes a big price reaction.

As the world economy recovered, (Bush Tax Cuts didn't hurt, either), demand went up, and the jitters of the lat 4 years have meant that people also want to have their stocks fuller than usual.

World wide production actually continues to increase, setting new all-time records 8 of the last 11 years (including the last 4).

Oil will continue to fluctuate, but without actually cutting production sharply, "speculators" can't keep a price up (or down) forever -- see the Hunt Brothers and Silver in the 1980s.

Calm the jitters and keep increasing production, and we'll be fine.

19 posted on 07/11/2006 4:11:59 AM PDT by BohDaThone
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To: Rte66
" ... Gas was at 7.2% of consumer spending 20 years ago--but it is at only half that rate today (3.7%). As a slice of the U.S. GDP, gasoline is down by a third, to 3%."

I don't have access to our GDP. I only know that spending on gas and heating products has more than doubled in the last five years.

Posting those numbers is for analysts and people who have millions of dollars so they don't feel guilty about all the waste they create. I have seriously felt the crunch and I drive good mileage cars. Gasoline demand in the U.S. has gone up because people with lots of money don't care if they drive a car that only gets 12 mpg. Too bad for the little folks - they'll just have to suffer.

20 posted on 07/11/2006 4:23:41 AM PDT by raybbr (You think it's bad now - wait till the anchor babies start to vote.)
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