Israel At War
Godzilla thoughts
Things happen quickly. Major air mobile operation by Israel into Baalbek, IDF slugging their way into Lebanon, significant rumor from Yoni that IDF will strike Syria within 24 hours.
24-hour forecast
See above. Expect things to change very quickly as the situation will become very fluid.
Cease Fire Front
U.K., Czech Republic & Germany rejected an EU draft calling for immediate cease-fire in Lebanon conflict. This is remarkable that there is still tacit approval for Israel to go forward with its war on Hezbollah inspite of the Qana episode.
Syria Military
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told the Syrian military on Monday to raise its readiness, pledging not to abandon support for Lebanese resistance against Israel. However, it has already been pointed out that the increase in readiness has already been underway for over a week now.
It is also becoming clearer that Syria is directly assisting Hezbollah by smuggle weapons and rockets. An associated parallel is the RUMINT that an Israeli UAV was shot down over the weekend by Syria AAA, even though it was flying in Lebanese airspace. UAV’s have been used to identify and target these smuggling convoys for IAF and artillery.
Rocket Attacks
Hezbollah has resumed the bombardments. .
Group Identified
A group claiming to operate out of Syria took credit today for what it said was an attack against Israeli troops operating near the Syria-Israel border, according to a source in Syrian President Bashar Assad's Ba'ath party. However this attack failed.
IDF Ground Offensive – See earlier SITREP
Stratfor generally agrees with my initial SITREP
http://news.google.com/news?svnum=10&hl=en&ned=us&ie=ISO-8859-1&scoring=d&q=%22Special+Report%3A+The+Ground+Offensive%22+source%3Astratfor
Initial reports indicate that the ground offensive has kicked off at least in the eastern portions of Lebanon. News reports IDF soldiers have been fighting pitched battles with enemy forces in the eastern sector of southern Lebanon since the early hours of Tuesday. It is reported that up to 10 - 20,000 Israeli Troops have pushed into Lebanon.
Knesset Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee approves call-up of another 3 divisions. Foreign Minister Livni has stated that there is no time limit on IDF operation, though some officers have given a range of 2 to 6 weeks to accomplish the mission.
Helicopters reportedly landed Israeli soldiers on hills near the northeastern Lebanese town of Baalbek, a Hezbollah stronghold, on Tuesday, Lebanese security sources said. This is a very bold, daring move placing light infantry that far behind the lines. They can stir up a lot of trouble back there, especially with IAF dominance of the air to provide CAS as needed. Makes me rethink the plan of attack.
RUMINT
Yoni has stated that Syria will be hit soon
http://www.yonitheblogger.com/