WE LOST THE (IMMIGRATION)REFERENDUM

Lonsberry.com ^ | 6/28/06 | Bob Lonsberry

[Dane]

WE LOST THE REFERENDUM

It was a landslide.

They had that referendum on illegal immigration yesterday and the answer was clear.

People don’t care.

I’m not saying that as a criticism, or as accusation, but as an observation. If yesterday’s Republican Primary in Utah’s third congressional district was a test of the country’s sentiment on illegal immigration, it is unarguably clear that people aren’t that bothered by it.

At least they’re not in Utah.

Congressman Chris Cannon pounded the living snot out of challenger John Jacob. It wasn’t even close. John Jacob lost in every county, jurisdiction and precinct. At no point did he lead in any category and every new report of results was more bad news. As I sat last night at the computer with his staffers, watching the results post on the Internet, it was clear that by the time 10 percent of the precincts had posted that the race was lost.

So I’ve got egg on my face.

I attacked Chris Cannon ruthlessly. I was John Jacob’s loudest and most passionate defender. His loss is also my loss. His failure to represent the interests of the people is also my failure to read the interests of the people. What I thought was important was clearly unimportant to the voters. And in a republic, the voters are always right.

It turns out that Salt Lake City’s two daily newspapers, and Provo’s newspaper, the state’s other talk-show host, and most of the state’s politicians were all more in touch with the sentiments of the Republicans in the Third District than I was. It is clear that their general liberalism is a better reflection of voter sentiment than my rabid conservatism.

And I should have known that. Instead, I was blinded by my desire to evangelize the world to my view of freedom – a decidedly conservative and Constitution-based view. But Utah is not a politically conservative state. It is dominated by the Republican Party, but not by conservative Republicans. The governor is a moderate to liberal, one senator is a moderate and the other is arguably a liberal. The last two governors were moderate to liberal and the attorney general is moderate to liberal.

Those are not accusatory labels, they are merely demonstrations of the consistently expressed will of the people. When Utahns go to the polls, they often pick moral conservatives, but rarely pick political conservatives. More typically they go for social liberals.

And they rarely go for political challengers from the right.

So, logically, John Jacob’s campaign was doomed from the beginning. And I should have known that. I probably did know that, but chose to ignore it, caught up in the talking-head argument that this was the time and place the people would rise up against government neglect of the border and acceptance of illegal immigration.

That argument made sense. This was the chance. It was the chance for conservatives in the Republican Party to call to account the ruling liberal wing of the party. But that is not what the voters wanted.

And that can’t be ignored.

If this was a referendum on illegal immigration, it seems the people want Senate over House, Kennedy over Tancredo. It seems that Chris Cannon’s 10 years of being the open-borders guy in the House is something the Republicans in Utah’s Third District wanted to reward.

Again, that is not an accusation. It is not bitterness. It is an observation. The landslide re-election of an incumbent is not a call for change – in that incumbent’s conduct or in the direction of his party. It is a ratification and approval of what they both have stood for.

George Bush and Vicente Fox won last night. It was a fair fight, I made the issue as clear as I could, and people chose what I wasn’t selling. Which is their right and the great beauty of our republic.

We tried to make our stand, and we got steamrollered. We can take comfort in knowing that we did our best, and we can seethe in the bitterness of knowing that it didn’t do any good. It was duty done, but pointlessly.

And I apologize for that. For taking up so much of your time with this issue. For being so passionate about something for which there is not a public enthusiasm. For being clearly out of touch with what Republicans want. For misreading the potential of this election.

It is impossible to ignore the fact that Chris Cannon won this primary by a larger margin than he won the primary two years ago. Last time’s $50,000 campaign did better than this time’s $700,000 campaign. And even that second figure is uncertain. It is possible that John Jacob’s campaign ran out of money a month ago, that it was underfunded. It is possible that John Jacob was a poor candidate.

But it is also irrelevant.

In his concession remarks – he bypassed a prepared speech – John Jacob said that the results of the election showed that Chris Cannon has support in Washington.

Actually, that’s not right.

The results showed that Chris Cannon has support in the Third District.

His constituents have known him for a decade and they seem overwhelmingly to like him and what he does. The referendum failed. It’s business as usual – business with which the voters seem completely content.

If this primary was an opening battle in the war to bring the Republican Party back to its conservative roots, we got massacred. And that will be noticed and have consequences. We conservatives hoped to show momentum and strength and didn’t. And we may have hurt our cause substantially as a result. Opposition to illegal immigration has been hurt, and so has the attempt to chastise the party. We fell flat on our face, and to the winner go the spoils.

Politics is like baseball. When you lose, you congratulate the winner and walk off the field.

Chris Cannon won because he represented what people want. He won the election. He deserves congratulations.

[P-40]

Wasn't this the race where one of the candidates started talking about Satan?

[stinkerpot65]

This is a blog posting, not a legitimate news source.

[Dane]

Wasn't this the race where one of the candidates started talking about Satan?

Yes, John Jacob was the one who told the editorial board of the Salt Lake Tribune that satan was basically out to get him becuse he couldn't raise enough money, and then asked them not to print it.

Of course before the primary a score of people were telling me that it wouldn't make a difference in Utah and then today on another thread another Jacob supporter said it did(after the primary results came in).

I'll tell you one thing politics is a fascinating study of human behavior.

[tflabo]

"I saw Jacob on TV , he came across a bit strange. Sorry, but first impressions are everything."

It takes an outstanding candidate to unseat an incumbent and more so in a primary off season vote.

[Free Dominoes]

Definition of a moonbat: A guy who thinks someone who panders to illegals and La Raza is a conservative.

[daviddennis]

I'm really curious about this one.

I understand why in California or Texas, illegal aliens are a big issue. They are, after all, there.

I live in Pennsylvania, a cold weather state that's losing population. Right now, Republican incumbant Senator Rick Sanatorium is running radio ads discussing his opposition to illegal aliens.

From what I can see, quite bluntly, Pennsylvania could use illegal immigrants, even those that have children and user city services. We need young people. Our school taxes are absurd because huge buildings with few students are being maintained. A few extra students would not kill us and would probably help the vitality of our area. And I daresay the same is true of hospitals and other institutions that are overloaded elsewhere in the country.

My foggy impression is that Utah is a similar type of location - another cold weather place losing population to the South and West. Per Wikipedia, it would have lost population without migration from outside of the US.

I would think that the 60,000-odd people who immigrated into the state from a foreign country would be easily absorbed into a population of 2.5 million, and therefore illegal immigration would not be much of a concern, if not any at all.

So why on earth would someone run on an anti-illegal platform in a state where there are not enough illegals to matter?

I think illegals would be largely welcome in most states where populations are shrinking or treading water. The big problems with illegals in California are due to huge numbers that strain resources locally. I'll bet if we could encourage them to migrate more evenly throughout the country we would have little problem absorbing them.

But I think most Mexicans and other illegals would have a very hard time living in cold weather states.

Thoughts?

D

[Mike Darancette]

If yesterday’s Republican Primary in Utah’s third congressional district was a test of the country’s sentiment on illegal immigration, it is unarguably clear that people aren’t that bothered by it. At least they’re not in Utah.

I don't think the Mormons see illegal immigration in quite the same light as other folks.

[tennmountainman]

"I will give Lonsberry some credit, he noticed and admitted that there is a world outside his echo chmaber"

Maybe u can invite him up the the Great Blue State for a Philly Cheese Steak.

[tennmountainman]

Take out some of his Novice mistakes, The presidents phone calls
and you have a different ending.

[kingu]

Please Drier was being pummeled by John and Ken who have a microphone from a 50,000 watt station in Los Anglees. Then they also did bigtime cheerleading for Jim Gilchrist, both of the John and Ken candidates lost big.

Really? Hadn't noticed John and Ken doing much during the Sardo campaign, though I'm sure I'll be seeing Fire Dreier signs again this fall.

Pick any twenty people walking down the street in the 22nd, ask them who Sonny Sardo is, and virtually no one will know. Ask the same twenty who David Dreier is, and you'll see this was absolutely not based upon issues but on name recognition.

[P-40]

satan was basically out to get him

Playing the Satan Card was probably not a good option...

[Shermy]

""Right now, Republican incumbant Senator Rick Sanatorium is running radio ads discussing his opposition to illegal aliens.""

As far as I know Casey doesn't disagree with Santorum there so it seems senseless for that reason too.

[Wallace T.]

With regard to Mexicans and other Latin Americans living in cold weather climates, keep in mind that Chicago and Northern Indiana have had a substantial Mexican-American community for decades, as has Denver. New York City and environs have had a large Puerto Rican and Caribbean population for a long time as well. OTOH, there was a large settlement of Germans and other Central Europeans in Central and South Texas, including the Hill Country, in the 1800s. Most of their white neighbors were from the Southeastern states, whose forbears came from the British Isles in colonial times.

If the jobs are there, people will migrate, irrespective of the climate of the land of their origins.

[Richard-SIA]

"REFERENDUM"?

Nope, when one of the contestants loses his mind and starts blaming "the devil" for his slipping in the polls there is no referendum to be held.

Rational people will either hold their noses and vote for the SANE candidate, or stay home.

Looking at the turn out, most stayed home.

If the RNC, White House, or open border lobby think this is their new weather vane, they are also delusional.

Make illegal entry a felony, close the border, fine the employers, begin asset forfeiture, make the invaders deport themselves!

[JDB520]

Jacobs was weak. Chris cannon pretty much made himself out to be Tancredo in his adds. Utahns believed it. I also think the LDS church position on Illegals had alot to do with this. They think it is prophecy for the Mexicans to take Utah back. So with the Mormons on board it is like a self fulfilling prophecy.

[CWOJackson]

It's pretty evident that it's mostly "the base" that votes in primaries. DESPITE the out-of-state efforts by bay buchanan and the Tancredo PAC to energize this issue 20% of the voters bothered to vote and they gave Cannon a double digit victory. One of the problems with setting up and pushing a referendum...you might not like the results.

[JDB520]

I think what this election showed is that the voters of Utah don't care. It was a weak turnout. Cannon had the money and GW/Laura Bush making phone calls.

[Richard Axtell]

WAAAAY too much was made of this race in too short a time. This decides very little, so don't make the mistake of reading this as some kind of bell weather, and don't let Snow snow you on that either. I like Tony, and I like Bush, but the Senate bill is dead... if the American people actually find out what is in it. That's the House Conservative Republican's job this summer, making sure everyone is fully aware of just what a disastrous mistake it would be to allow its passing. Plenty to come, so keep yer powder dry.

[colorado tanker]

Once you guys get done throwing everybody out you don't think is a "real" conservative, you might have enough votes left to elect a mayor of Dogpatch.

[JustPiper]

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