Posted on 06/28/2006 1:45:44 PM PDT by Dane
WE LOST THE REFERENDUM
It was a landslide.
They had that referendum on illegal immigration yesterday and the answer was clear.
People don’t care.
I’m not saying that as a criticism, or as accusation, but as an observation. If yesterday’s Republican Primary in Utah’s third congressional district was a test of the country’s sentiment on illegal immigration, it is unarguably clear that people aren’t that bothered by it.
At least they’re not in Utah.
Congressman Chris Cannon pounded the living snot out of challenger John Jacob. It wasn’t even close. John Jacob lost in every county, jurisdiction and precinct. At no point did he lead in any category and every new report of results was more bad news. As I sat last night at the computer with his staffers, watching the results post on the Internet, it was clear that by the time 10 percent of the precincts had posted that the race was lost.
So I’ve got egg on my face.
I attacked Chris Cannon ruthlessly. I was John Jacob’s loudest and most passionate defender. His loss is also my loss. His failure to represent the interests of the people is also my failure to read the interests of the people. What I thought was important was clearly unimportant to the voters. And in a republic, the voters are always right.
It turns out that Salt Lake City’s two daily newspapers, and Provo’s newspaper, the state’s other talk-show host, and most of the state’s politicians were all more in touch with the sentiments of the Republicans in the Third District than I was. It is clear that their general liberalism is a better reflection of voter sentiment than my rabid conservatism.
And I should have known that. Instead, I was blinded by my desire to evangelize the world to my view of freedom – a decidedly conservative and Constitution-based view. But Utah is not a politically conservative state. It is dominated by the Republican Party, but not by conservative Republicans. The governor is a moderate to liberal, one senator is a moderate and the other is arguably a liberal. The last two governors were moderate to liberal and the attorney general is moderate to liberal.
Those are not accusatory labels, they are merely demonstrations of the consistently expressed will of the people. When Utahns go to the polls, they often pick moral conservatives, but rarely pick political conservatives. More typically they go for social liberals.
And they rarely go for political challengers from the right.
So, logically, John Jacob’s campaign was doomed from the beginning. And I should have known that. I probably did know that, but chose to ignore it, caught up in the talking-head argument that this was the time and place the people would rise up against government neglect of the border and acceptance of illegal immigration.
That argument made sense. This was the chance. It was the chance for conservatives in the Republican Party to call to account the ruling liberal wing of the party. But that is not what the voters wanted.
And that can’t be ignored.
If this was a referendum on illegal immigration, it seems the people want Senate over House, Kennedy over Tancredo. It seems that Chris Cannon’s 10 years of being the open-borders guy in the House is something the Republicans in Utah’s Third District wanted to reward.
Again, that is not an accusation. It is not bitterness. It is an observation. The landslide re-election of an incumbent is not a call for change – in that incumbent’s conduct or in the direction of his party. It is a ratification and approval of what they both have stood for.
George Bush and Vicente Fox won last night. It was a fair fight, I made the issue as clear as I could, and people chose what I wasn’t selling. Which is their right and the great beauty of our republic.
We tried to make our stand, and we got steamrollered. We can take comfort in knowing that we did our best, and we can seethe in the bitterness of knowing that it didn’t do any good. It was duty done, but pointlessly.
And I apologize for that. For taking up so much of your time with this issue. For being so passionate about something for which there is not a public enthusiasm. For being clearly out of touch with what Republicans want. For misreading the potential of this election.
It is impossible to ignore the fact that Chris Cannon won this primary by a larger margin than he won the primary two years ago. Last time’s $50,000 campaign did better than this time’s $700,000 campaign. And even that second figure is uncertain. It is possible that John Jacob’s campaign ran out of money a month ago, that it was underfunded. It is possible that John Jacob was a poor candidate.
But it is also irrelevant.
In his concession remarks – he bypassed a prepared speech – John Jacob said that the results of the election showed that Chris Cannon has support in Washington.
Actually, that’s not right.
The results showed that Chris Cannon has support in the Third District.
His constituents have known him for a decade and they seem overwhelmingly to like him and what he does. The referendum failed. It’s business as usual – business with which the voters seem completely content.
If this primary was an opening battle in the war to bring the Republican Party back to its conservative roots, we got massacred. And that will be noticed and have consequences. We conservatives hoped to show momentum and strength and didn’t. And we may have hurt our cause substantially as a result. Opposition to illegal immigration has been hurt, and so has the attempt to chastise the party. We fell flat on our face, and to the winner go the spoils.
Politics is like baseball. When you lose, you congratulate the winner and walk off the field.
Chris Cannon won because he represented what people want. He won the election. He deserves congratulations.
ONWARD TO THE HOUSE FIELD HEARINGS ON THE SENATE BILL
EXPOSE THE SHAM IN THE LIGHT OF DAY.
Senators Hatch and Bennett are a liberal and a moderate?
That's not what I've seen by looking at their voting records.
""You should have seen the thread last night, the pro-illegals were threatening death to Tancredo, his "ostracization", it was a regular Spanish Inquisition.""
"BS, and you know it. But you guys are prone to hyperbole, like tom tancredo."
________________________________
Gosh Dane, you're suffering from a bad case of projection-itis. Your obsession with Tancredo is unhealthy. I'd suggest taking some time off for you but I suspect you will see it a plot to silence your voice.
Like the last poster said BIL-BRAY!!
Its hard to judge just what is th edeciding factor in local elections.
Very often the incumbent is able to use his office to dispense favors and massage the electorate to the point that they are putty in his hands.
The fail to see the policy through the personality.
Were BOTH candidates Mormons? Utah is a heavily Mormon state and I doubt if any non-Mormon could ever get elected there. Has the Mormon Church gone the way of the Methodists and Episcopalians and Prebyterians in caving in to liberal political issues?
On the other hand, look at that brainless twit Orrin Hatch.
The fact that he gets constinually elected to office is nothing short of miraculous. The man is just a few neurons ahead of Frank Lautenberg. But he keeps running and keeps getting in.
Remmember BIL-BRAY.
This IS a bumb in the road - nothing more.
Microsoft gets hacked daily. The DOD gets hacked all the time. And you think an e-voting machine can't be hacked ? The only DUmmie I smell is you.
".........won a battle against a novice who made mistakes."
...and not by the predicted landslide like some were alluding too.
I saw Jacob on TV , he came across a bit strange. Sorry, but first impressions are everything.
people are reading into the election things that the election doesn't symbolize.
People chose an incumbant over a person who acted kind of nuts.
This is surprising?
All politics is local. Watch what happens to RINOs in districts where the issue matters more to its voters.
I believe the results are sent in over a modem.
Jacobs was a lousy (not to say borderline loony) candidate. It wasn't the (immigration) message. It was definitely the messenger. Whether it was really his fault or a hostile media and an effective negative campaign by the Cannon folks is moot. Jacobs was defeated, not the question of dealing effectively with the border.
The race in California a few weeks ago was much more indicative of the mood across the country. A serious candidate with a serious position won with addressing border security first as his primary message.
Agreed. Congressman Chris Cannon outspent his opponent 10-1 or better and made big news of the fact that he voted for the house immigration bill so he was, really, really, tough on border control.
Please Drier was being pummeled by John and Ken who have a microphone from a 50,000 watt station in Los Anglees. Then they also did bigtime cheerleading for Jim Gilchrist, both of the John and Ken candidates lost big.
Sometimes you have to face the fact that the issue isn't resonating with voters, and not blame the voters.
Uh it was more like 3-2.
I was a poll judge yesterday. The machines register each vote on a papeer tape as well as a memory card. The memory cards are gathered (as well as the tapes) and turned into a central tallying location. If numbers were hacked it would be there.
Fox puts people on such as Jim Gilchrist, Chris Simcox, Michelle Malkin, Tom Tancredo, etc.etc. and just because they are on Fox News or Hannity's show, some on FR think that the whole country agrees with them and then when elections like this happen, there is a big letdown.
But what does Fox, Hannity, or Rush care, they are just looking for viewers and listeners.
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