Posted on 06/28/2006 3:42:39 AM PDT by Dane
UT 3: Cannon's Win Blunts Immigration Foes' Momentum By Michael Teitelbaum | 3:34 AM; Jun. 28, 2006 | Email This Article
Five-term Rep. Chris Cannon won Tuesday’s Republican primary in Utah’s 3rd Congressional District by a comfortable margin, thwarting a determined effort by challenger John Jacob and some activist opponents of illegal immigration to cast him out because of his relatively moderate position on that hot-button issue.
Cannon’s win — by 56 percent to 44 percent, with all precincts reporting — also was a political pick-me-up for President Bush, with whom Cannon is allied in supporting a nuanced approach on immigration: They both support a plan, embodied in a bill passed by the Senate and backed by many in the business community, that combines tougher border security with a guest worker program that would legitimize employment and provide a path to citizenship for many of the estimated 11 million to 12 million illegal immigrants currently in the United States.
That measure stands in contrast to a House bill, passed mainly with support of Republican members, that focuses almost entirely on immigration law enforcement and border security and excludes any mention of a guest worker program. Jacob endorsed the House approach in his challenge to Cannon.
Bush recorded an endorsement statement for Cannon near the end of the primary campaign that was widely broadcast in Utah 3, a conservative Republican bastion where the president received a whopping 77 percent of the vote in his 2004 re-election contest. First lady Laura Bush also recorded a message on Cannon’s behalf.
It would be an exaggeration to say that the outcome was a clear-cut verdict on the immigration issue. The White House backing was just one of several major advantages enjoyed by Cannon, including his ability to tout legislative measures he had taken on behalf of the district as the incumbent, name ID that was far superior to Jacob’s, and a campaign treasury that was roughly double that of the challenger.
Jacob also exposed his political inexperience, and may have damaged his campaign, with a pair of late and ill-timed statements.
Jacob said a “force” had been working against him in the primary and in his business life and, when pressed, indicated that the force was Satan. He also said he once did some gambling, but stopped when the leader of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints — to which Jacob, Cannon and most 3rd District residents belong — condemned such activities.
But the outcome of the primary will be most analyzed for what it says about immigration, and will likely challenge some preconceived notions about how the issue is playing politically — particularly among those Republicans who contend that the party’s conservative base is fired up about the issue and demanding a hardline approach.
The contest was portrayed by those on both sides as a microcosm of the Republican schism over immigration, and its venue in an overwhelmingly conservative district made it a test case of the priority that the party base places on the issue.
Jacob constantly tested Cannon on this central campaign issue. He was supported by staunch activist opponents of illegal immigration who portrayed Cannon as too soft, likening his position to “amnesty” (a characterization to which the incumbent strongly objected).
Jacob was backed by a roughly $50,000 independent expenditure on ads, most of them blasting Cannon, run by Team America, a political action committee founded by Colorado Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo — Congress’ most vocal hardliner on immigration — and currently led by Bay Buchanan, a conservative media figure and sister of former presidential aspirant Pat Buchanan.
Buchanan was undeterred by Cannon’s victory. “With a very direct and simple message and little money, we have been able to take an incumbent Republican and put him on the ropes, forcing the establishment to circle the wagons,” Buchanan said. She noted that this was the first of many races in which the PAC will be an active participant, adding, “We have made this congressman pay for his amnesty votes.”
The conservative dissidents can legitimately claim to having chipped a bit into Cannon’s support base. Cannon’s vote percentage was down a couple of points from 2004, when he faced a primary challenge from former state Rep. Matt Throckmorton — also focused primarily on the immigration issue — and won by 58 percent to 42 percent.
Cannon secured his relatively easy victory by maintaining majority support in his home base of Utah County, which includes the city of Provo and provides roughly half of the district’s vote. Cannon won there with 55 percent — the same vote share he received in the 2004 primary — even though Jacob, a developer, also resides in Utah County.
Cannon did endure some slippage elsewhere: It was most pronounced in the suburbs of Salt Lake City, which provides roughly a third of the district’s vote. The district’s portion of Salt Lake County — where Cannon won by 19 percentage points two years ago — gave Cannon just a 3 percentage-point edge over Jacob.
Cannon nonetheless outran Jacob in all seven counties that are wholly or partially in the 3rd.
Despite an often vitriolic campaign, Jacob conceded with a unity statement in which he said, “Congressman Cannon and I were not opponents; we were two patriots with differing views for America’s future.” He added, “It is true that Congressman Cannon and I have had disagreements. There will be time enough to address those continuing concerns, but tonight we lay aside our differences in order to unite together as Republicans.”
Cannon now rates as a shoo-in for his general election contest against lawyer Christian Burridge, who was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Cannon was re-elected two years ago with 63 percent of the vote.
CQ rates the general election contest as Safe Republican. Please visit CQPolitics.com’s Election Forecaster for ratings on all rating
In all seriousness though the author left out that very small turnout, which I believe was something like 7% in Salt Lake County and that was probably the reason for Cannon's 19% decline. People it seems in Salt Lake County despite all the publicity did not care about the issue of immigration to come out and vote.
Will be waiting for the tancredoties to spin for them what was a very bad night.
I'd tell you to be real careful about gloating but that would fall under the heading of 'pearls before swine'.
L
This is a Dane Alert
Dane has nothing of value to contribute to the discussion of illegal immigration. His sole purpose for posting anything on the subject is to anger, confuse, and demoralize those who are sick and tired of US Immigration laws being broken by millions of criminal invaders.
His prized goal is to get Freepers angry enough to forget the rules of the forum and then see them banned.
Do not fall into this trap. You're best course of action is to ignore Dane and his ilk and work very hard to see that the Senate Amnesty Bill dies a slow, painful, public, and ignominious death.
THIS HAS BEEN A DANE ALERT
We now return you to your regularly scheduled forum activities.
L
However, the owner and the moderators can remove who they decide to remove
But despite all the publicity and money spent the voters of the UT-3 gave a big yawn to the tancredo/bay buchanan message.
By November, immigration will shrink to its usual second-tier spot in the minds of most voters. The squealers and screamers will still insist it is the primary issue to GOPers, but it won't be.
Wow. I've been here for 8 years and never knew that.
It's really lucky for me that you happened along to fill me in on those salient facts. How ever shall I repay your kindness?
I'll ponder that question for a while and get back to you.
L
You guys are 1 for 3.
L
William Griffith, endorsed by the Minutemen and San Diego Border Alert got less than 4% of the vote in Bilbray v. Busby.
Now Jacob has lost.
If you are looking for some consolation, you could say that if Jacob runs as an independent in the general election, he will syphon off enough votes to give the district to the dems.
And that's why YOU are also one of our enemies. YOU AND YOUR ILK rejoicing when the left, rats, and liberals win. How utterly pathetic! Your like some cancer that needs to cut out.
Tancredo and Bay fired the silver bullet and it hit THEM, squarely between the eyes. Cannon was never on the ropes, and Jacob, when under pressure, revealed himself to be a mental patient. The good people of the 3rd district of Utah don't want to be represented by a mental patient.
Tancredo, by hooking up with Bay Buchanan, is jeopardizing his own career. She is poison.
Huh?
You left out that part about how the devil was against Jacob.
"nuanced?" oh brother.
Excellent point. Even with that, 55.8% vs. 44.2%.
Go ahead and gloat all you want but the biggest LOSER are AMERICANS!!
LEGAL TAXPAYING Americans.
But we may have lost A battle but we didn't lose the WAR!!
We will not cut and run!!!
Wait a minute. Dane, aren't you even going to refute this? You're a woman, aren't you, not a man? I know the rest of it is correct but surely you won't let this egregious error of mistaking your gender stand.
Dane, can you even vote in American elections? I mean, is it legal for you to vote here or do you have to go back to Mexico?
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