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GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race [Of defeat in California 50th District (the Cunningham seat)]
U..S News and World Report ^ | May 29, 2006 | Washington Whispers

Posted on 05/29/2006 11:43:01 AM PDT by Torie

GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race

Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP's loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. "It is becoming more and more likely," says one GOP strategist, "that Bilbray will squeak out a victory." But another longtime Republican operative isn't so sure. "This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."

(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: 2006; 50th; bilbray; electionushouse; electionushousse; thewritingonthewall
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1 posted on 05/29/2006 11:43:04 AM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie

SHould anyone care at this point?


2 posted on 05/29/2006 11:47:26 AM PDT by zarf (Breaking free from the limpid tentacles of packed Mediterranean defense)
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To: zarf
<> As far as immigration goes, the GOP House is the only one doing anything right. So they are good for something. The Republicans in the House are considerably more conservative than those in the Senate, on the whole.
3 posted on 05/29/2006 11:49:29 AM PDT by WatchYourself
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To: Torie

I'm afraid that the now toss-up between Angelides and Westly will inflate Democratic turnout and tip the race for Busby.


4 posted on 05/29/2006 11:49:36 AM PDT by LdSentinal
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To: Torie

This establishment moderate will lose..and the response by establishment moderates like yourself will be that the party needs to be more establishment and moderate.


5 posted on 05/29/2006 11:50:53 AM PDT by Rodney King (No, we can't all just get along.)
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To: AntiGuv; crasher; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; calcowgirl; Kuksool
Ping. The House GOP dike is springing leaks everywhere.


6 posted on 05/29/2006 11:52:46 AM PDT by Torie
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To: Rodney King; zarf

LOL. And Bilbray is taking a hard line on immigration, as his signature issue to boot. Why isn't it working?


7 posted on 05/29/2006 11:54:22 AM PDT by Torie
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To: LdSentinal; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; Kuksool; AuH2ORepublican; HostileTerritory

Here are my Memorial Day House ratings, fwiw. Critiques are welcome as always!

Lean Democratic

1 (IA-01) Nussle*
2 (CO-07) Beauprez*
3 (PA-06) Gerlach
4 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
5 (OH-18) Ney

Toss Up

6 (NM-01) Wilson
7 (NY-24) Boehlert*
8 (IN-09) Sodrel
9 (CT-02) Simmons
10 (IN-08) Hostettler
11 (CT-04) Shays
12 (WI-08) Green*
13 (NC-11) Taylor
14 (CA-50) Cunningham*

Lean Republican

15 (WA-08) Reichert
16 (FL-22) Shaw
17 (MN-06) Kennedy*
18 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
19 (OH-15) Pryce
20 (IL-06) Hyde*
21 (AZ-05) Hayworth
22 (KY-04) Davis
23 (OH-01) Chabot
24 (PA-07) Weldon
25 (IN-02) Chocola
26 (NY-20) Sweeney
27 (WY-AL) Cubin
28 (PA-10) Sherwood
29 (CA-11) Pombo
30 (TX-22) DeLay*
31 (NH-02) Bass
32 (VA-02) Drake

Likely Republican

33 (CO-04) Musgrave
34 (FL-13) Harris*
35 (NY-25) Walsh
36 (FL-09) Bilirakis*
37 (CT-05) Johnson
38 (NY-26) Reynolds
39 (FL-08) Keller
40 (NY-29) Kuhl
41 (NH-01) Bradley
42 (NJ-07) Ferguson
43 (NV-03) Porter
44 (MN-01) Gutknecht
45 (KY-03) Northup
46 (NV-02) Gibbons*
47 (NY-19) Kelly
48 (MN-02) Kline
49 (WV-02) Capito
50 (KY-02) Lewis
51 (IA-02) Leach

Watch List

52 (FL-16) Foley
53 (PA-04) Hart
54 (IL-10) Kirk
55 (IL-11) Weller
56 (MT-AL) Rehberg
57 (NE-01) Fortenberry
58 (CA-04) Doolittle
59 (ID-01) Otter*
60 (NC-08) Hayes




Toss Up

1 (IL-08) Bean
2 (GA-08) Marshall

Lean Democratic

3 (WV-01) Mollohan
4 (OH-06) Strickland*
5 (TX-17) Edwards
6 (LA-03) Melancon
7 (IA-03) Boswell

Likely Democratic

8 (VT-AL) Sanders (I)*
9 (SC-05) Spratt
10 (GA-12) Barrow
11 (IL-17) Evans*
12 (CO-03) Salazar
13 (WA-02) Larsen
14 (OH-13) Brown*
15 (UT-02) Matheson
16 (KS-03) Moore

Watch List

17 (HI-02) Case*
18 (ND-AL) Pomeroy
19 (OR-05) Hooley
20 (MN-08) Oberstar
21 (MD-03) Cardin*
22 (LA-02) Jefferson


8 posted on 05/29/2006 11:54:50 AM PDT by AntiGuv ("..I do things for political expediency.." - Sen. John McCain on FOX News)
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To: zarf

I wonder also.


9 posted on 05/29/2006 11:54:59 AM PDT by Paul Ross (We cannot be for lawful ordinances and for an alien conspiracy at one and the same moment.-Cicero)
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To: Torie

The district can't be "heavily Republican" if a DemocRAT is about to get elected. A true Republican would NEVER vote for a DemocRAT. Now RINOS on the other hand....


10 posted on 05/29/2006 11:57:11 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Freedom or a baloney sandwich? A DemocRAT will ALWAYS choose the baloney sandwich.)
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To: Torie
"This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."

More likely, it's the stink of a liberal Republican being pushed in a conservative district. His anti-gun, pro-GLBT, pro-abortion, soft-on-taxes stances hardly motivate conservatives. The saving grace is his position on immigration.

11 posted on 05/29/2006 11:57:59 AM PDT by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
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To: AntiGuv

Pretty decent list, though IMHO, I would put the VT-At large seat in the leans Democratic column based on the last poll conducted.


12 posted on 05/29/2006 11:58:25 AM PDT by LdSentinal
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To: FlingWingFlyer

It must by annoying to realize just how much we are "needed," isn't it? We need to be cared for and fed.


13 posted on 05/29/2006 11:59:24 AM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
We have house guests from this district that are convinced the Bilbray will pull out a narrow victory. My wife and I will be doing some phone work this week for Bilbray.
14 posted on 05/29/2006 12:01:10 PM PDT by ncountylee (Dead terrorists smell like victory)
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To: AntiGuv
I would move the below all into toss up at the moment. The tide is moving a bit faster than you are riding it. What made you move Taylor into toss-up by the way?

15 (WA-08) Reichert 
16 (FL-22) Shaw 
17 (MN-06) Kennedy* 
18 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick 
19 (OH-15) Pryce 
20 (IL-06) Hyde* 
21 (AZ-05) Hayworth 
22 (KY-04) Davis 
23 (OH-01) Chabot 
24 (PA-07) Weldon 
25 (IN-02) Chocola 

15 posted on 05/29/2006 12:03:13 PM PDT by Torie
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To: ncountylee

And a last minute campaign stop by McCain later this week to attract independent voters for Bilbray.


16 posted on 05/29/2006 12:04:03 PM PDT by LdSentinal
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To: calcowgirl

Who are YOU voting for, you right winger you?


17 posted on 05/29/2006 12:04:14 PM PDT by Torie
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To: FlingWingFlyer
The district can't be "heavily Republican" if a DemocRAT is about to get elected. A true Republican would NEVER vote for a DemocRAT. Now RINOS on the other hand....

and self-styled conservatives who help even more liberal and dangerous Democrats ascend to power ...

18 posted on 05/29/2006 12:05:25 PM PDT by af_vet_1981
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To: Torie

If the GOP loses the special in the 50th, the party is probably looking at a loss of 40 seats and the House. The Senate is less certain because so few Senators are running and the corrupt Congress has made it as hard as possible for incumbents to be dislodged from their "entitled" positions.

If they manage to squeak out the 50th they might only be looking at losing 20 seats.

It's ironic, but what's killing fundraising and the volunteer base is Bush's idea that criminal-alien amnesty has to be the top legislative priority, and general disaffection with Congressional corruption as evidenced by pork and Cunningham-Jefferson-Hastert-etc. That's why the Committee has to put in so much money, because the usual small local donors have dried up.

And the result of this is probably going to be the loss mostly of conservative seats... the very guys who fought against this madness.

I see it coming but can't very well change it. The party lords are petulantly demanding that the electorate stop expecting responsible government, get back in harness and keep pulling the beer wagon. Someone needs to spin Denny Hastert up on where the public is on "the divine right of kings." He's pathetically out of touch.

But that's what happens when you're tied up all day wrapping bribe money in tinfoil, or defending those who are.

d.o.l.

Criminal Number 18F


19 posted on 05/29/2006 12:06:05 PM PDT by Criminal Number 18F (America has no native criminal class, apart from Congress -- Mark Twain)
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To: Torie
Who are YOU voting for, you right winger you?

I don't vote in the district. As to my friends and family who do, some say they will bite the bullet and vote for him. Others I asked just shake their head in disgust of the whole thing (and I didn't press it).

20 posted on 05/29/2006 12:07:18 PM PDT by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
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