Posted on 05/29/2006 11:43:01 AM PDT by Torie
GOP Fears in a Bellwether Race
Staffers from the National Republican Congressional Committee are quietly telling GOP House members to prepare for a possible loss in the June 6 special election to fill the seat of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison for taking bribes. The Southern California district is heavily Republican, but some GOP insiders believe that Democrat Francine Busby will defeat former GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray and go on to win a full term in November. More alarming some worry that a Bilbray defeat could signal the GOP's loss of control of the House. The NRCC has already pumped $3.1 million into the race. "It is becoming more and more likely," says one GOP strategist, "that Bilbray will squeak out a victory." But another longtime Republican operative isn't so sure. "This is a district we should never lose," he says. "It's the stink of Cunningham, and the Bush problem."
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
SHould anyone care at this point?
I'm afraid that the now toss-up between Angelides and Westly will inflate Democratic turnout and tip the race for Busby.
This establishment moderate will lose..and the response by establishment moderates like yourself will be that the party needs to be more establishment and moderate.
LOL. And Bilbray is taking a hard line on immigration, as his signature issue to boot. Why isn't it working?
Here are my Memorial Day House ratings, fwiw. Critiques are welcome as always!
Lean Democratic
1 (IA-01) Nussle*
2 (CO-07) Beauprez*
3 (PA-06) Gerlach
4 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
5 (OH-18) Ney
Toss Up
6 (NM-01) Wilson
7 (NY-24) Boehlert*
8 (IN-09) Sodrel
9 (CT-02) Simmons
10 (IN-08) Hostettler
11 (CT-04) Shays
12 (WI-08) Green*
13 (NC-11) Taylor
14 (CA-50) Cunningham*
Lean Republican
15 (WA-08) Reichert
16 (FL-22) Shaw
17 (MN-06) Kennedy*
18 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
19 (OH-15) Pryce
20 (IL-06) Hyde*
21 (AZ-05) Hayworth
22 (KY-04) Davis
23 (OH-01) Chabot
24 (PA-07) Weldon
25 (IN-02) Chocola
26 (NY-20) Sweeney
27 (WY-AL) Cubin
28 (PA-10) Sherwood
29 (CA-11) Pombo
30 (TX-22) DeLay*
31 (NH-02) Bass
32 (VA-02) Drake
Likely Republican
33 (CO-04) Musgrave
34 (FL-13) Harris*
35 (NY-25) Walsh
36 (FL-09) Bilirakis*
37 (CT-05) Johnson
38 (NY-26) Reynolds
39 (FL-08) Keller
40 (NY-29) Kuhl
41 (NH-01) Bradley
42 (NJ-07) Ferguson
43 (NV-03) Porter
44 (MN-01) Gutknecht
45 (KY-03) Northup
46 (NV-02) Gibbons*
47 (NY-19) Kelly
48 (MN-02) Kline
49 (WV-02) Capito
50 (KY-02) Lewis
51 (IA-02) Leach
Watch List
52 (FL-16) Foley
53 (PA-04) Hart
54 (IL-10) Kirk
55 (IL-11) Weller
56 (MT-AL) Rehberg
57 (NE-01) Fortenberry
58 (CA-04) Doolittle
59 (ID-01) Otter*
60 (NC-08) Hayes
I wonder also.
The district can't be "heavily Republican" if a DemocRAT is about to get elected. A true Republican would NEVER vote for a DemocRAT. Now RINOS on the other hand....
More likely, it's the stink of a liberal Republican being pushed in a conservative district. His anti-gun, pro-GLBT, pro-abortion, soft-on-taxes stances hardly motivate conservatives. The saving grace is his position on immigration.
Pretty decent list, though IMHO, I would put the VT-At large seat in the leans Democratic column based on the last poll conducted.
It must by annoying to realize just how much we are "needed," isn't it? We need to be cared for and fed.
15 (WA-08) Reichert 16 (FL-22) Shaw 17 (MN-06) Kennedy* 18 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick 19 (OH-15) Pryce 20 (IL-06) Hyde* 21 (AZ-05) Hayworth 22 (KY-04) Davis 23 (OH-01) Chabot 24 (PA-07) Weldon 25 (IN-02) Chocola
And a last minute campaign stop by McCain later this week to attract independent voters for Bilbray.
Who are YOU voting for, you right winger you?
and self-styled conservatives who help even more liberal and dangerous Democrats ascend to power ...
If the GOP loses the special in the 50th, the party is probably looking at a loss of 40 seats and the House. The Senate is less certain because so few Senators are running and the corrupt Congress has made it as hard as possible for incumbents to be dislodged from their "entitled" positions.
If they manage to squeak out the 50th they might only be looking at losing 20 seats.
It's ironic, but what's killing fundraising and the volunteer base is Bush's idea that criminal-alien amnesty has to be the top legislative priority, and general disaffection with Congressional corruption as evidenced by pork and Cunningham-Jefferson-Hastert-etc. That's why the Committee has to put in so much money, because the usual small local donors have dried up.
And the result of this is probably going to be the loss mostly of conservative seats... the very guys who fought against this madness.
I see it coming but can't very well change it. The party lords are petulantly demanding that the electorate stop expecting responsible government, get back in harness and keep pulling the beer wagon. Someone needs to spin Denny Hastert up on where the public is on "the divine right of kings." He's pathetically out of touch.
But that's what happens when you're tied up all day wrapping bribe money in tinfoil, or defending those who are.
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
I don't vote in the district. As to my friends and family who do, some say they will bite the bullet and vote for him. Others I asked just shake their head in disgust of the whole thing (and I didn't press it).
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