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SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- May 2006
self | May 22, 2006 | RobFromGa

Posted on 05/22/2006 5:59:20 PM PDT by RobFromGa

Here are my predictions as of today for the 2006 Senate races. I don't profess to be an expert on each of these races, and there could be some mistakes here. But the way I see it, the GOP currently has 48 safe seats and the Dems/Socialists have 41.

SAFE SEATS (GOP)

AZ- R- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum

SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)

VT- I- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders likely
CA- D- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman safe (faces Dem challenger Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
MI- D- Stabenow safe? (GOP Primary Aug 8)
NE- D- Nelson safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WV- D- Byrd safe (health?)
WI- D- Kohl safe
14 safe + 27 carryovers = 41 minimum

I see eleven "Contests" at present, ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. With TN, VA, and MO we still have a 51 seat majority. With OH and RI, we are at 53, for a net loss of two. (I think -2 Seats is our worst case scenario barring catastrophe)

The tossups I see are MN, MT, and NJ-- with two of three we are at no change, with all three we are at +1. (I think +1 seats is our best case likely scenario)

The CONTESTS according to RobFromGa :

LIKELY GOP
TN- R- open(Frist seat) ? vs. Ford(D) (90% chance GOP)
VA- R- Allen vs. ? (90% chance GOP)
MO- R- Talent vs. McCaskill (80% chance GOP)

PROBABLE GOP
OH- R- DeWine(I) vs. Brown (60% chance GOP)
RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative)

TOSSUPS
MN- D- open (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy (50% chance GOP)
MT- R- Keenan needs to beat Burns(I) in primary (50% chance GOP)
NJ- D- Menendez(I) vs. Kean (50% chance RINO)

DOUBTFUL GOP
PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)
WA- D- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick (30% chance GOP)


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 109th; 2006; 60in06; predictions; senate
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To: AntiGuv

I think our biggest recruiting missteps were in FL, NE and ND-- the GOP should have all those states with the right candidates...


41 posted on 05/22/2006 7:54:12 PM PDT by RobFromGa (In decline, the Driveby Media is thrashing about like dinosaurs caught in the tar pits.)
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To: RobFromGa
Good analysis. The Senate has proved worthless except for approving judicial nominations after every member has spent hours on C-SPAN bloviating. Still, a RINO Senate is at least marginally better than one run by the Dims. I do hope Santorum makes it. He's one of the few with real integrity.

My real hopes lie with the House. That's where real damage can be done if the Dims take over.

42 posted on 05/22/2006 7:57:01 PM PDT by Malesherbes
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To: RobFromGa
It's only May. Nelson is "up 19 points" but only at 54%, that is pretty shaky in a Republican state.

When the issue becomes "do you want Ted Kennedy, Harry Reid, et al to run the Senate, the "likeable" Ben Nelson will be kicked to the curb. Nebraskans will have no stomach for that.

Also, for a guy who is supposedly aided by "Bush's low poll numbers", Ben Nelson sure is sucking up to him.

43 posted on 05/22/2006 8:05:00 PM PDT by UNGN (I've been here since '98 but had nothing to say until now)
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To: george76

While Menendez is one of the most mediocre candidates on the scene today and is running as a half-@ssed incumbent, I don't see Kean winning NJ at all. Pardon my French, but New Jersey is one of the most f#cked up states in the U.S. -- and it will probably be decades before it elects anything remotely close to a normal, well-adjusted human being to public office on a statewide level.


44 posted on 05/22/2006 8:20:19 PM PDT by Alberta's Child (Can money pay for all the days I lived awake but half asleep?)
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To: RobFromGa

89 safe seats out of 100? The senate is either doing a great job or the elections are a farce.


45 posted on 05/22/2006 8:25:41 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: RobFromGa

"If they can clean up the fraud in Philly, that will help a lot."


See my tagline...


46 posted on 05/22/2006 8:26:22 PM PDT by Ike (My idea of election reform - blue fingers in Philadelphia!)
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To: RobFromGa
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)

I think Steele has a good chance, especially if Mfume makes a mess of the Dem primary.

47 posted on 05/22/2006 8:27:01 PM PDT by Rummyfan
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To: RobFromGa

Yogi: "90% of this game is half mental"!


48 posted on 05/22/2006 8:30:02 PM PDT by TRY ONE (NUKE the unborn gay whales!)
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To: RobFromGa

Yogi: "90% of this game is half mental"!


49 posted on 05/22/2006 8:30:06 PM PDT by TRY ONE (NUKE the unborn gay whales!)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Senator Allen from VA will most likely be re-elected, but I think the election will be closer than some predict.

Senator Warner is up for re-election in 2008, but I have a feeling he won't run if Tom Delay gets in the mix. Warner is not as well-liked as he once was. Myself, I have been very disppointed in him, except for his votes on SCOTUS.


50 posted on 05/22/2006 8:31:29 PM PDT by old_sage_says ("Man does not live by his words alone, despite the fact that he sometimes has to eat them" A S)
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To: paul51

Only 1/3 are up each cycle.


51 posted on 05/22/2006 8:41:34 PM PDT by Young Scholar
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To: Young Scholar
Yes, I realize tthat. How many do you suppose will change over? It's a joke
52 posted on 05/22/2006 8:46:21 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: RobFromGa
I think our biggest recruiting missteps were in FL, NE and ND-- the GOP should have all those states with the right candidates...

Yeah, I remember us waiting around for someone strong to emerge to take on the Democrats in those states, particularly in North Dakota, and it never happened, and in the case of Harris, her candidacy just went down the tubes.
53 posted on 05/22/2006 9:00:28 PM PDT by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
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To: All; RobFromGa; Alamo-Girl; Mia T; JLO; Calpernia; kristinn

.

Today BRUCE HERSHENSON stated at the Nixon Presidential Library that till now the most important American Election was the after-Watergate 1974 Election, after President NIXON had been forced to resign for Watergate.

It was immediately after this Democrat Victory that Senator FRANK CHURCH's Investigating Committee started depleting our intelligence community and exposing secret agents and those who cooperated with them abroad ..leading to many deaths.

This Democratic Congress then cut off all funding for the Free South Vietnamese to fight for their own Freedom with, 2 1/2 years before the Vietnam War's end. This as the Communist Soviet Union gave $6 Billion in Military aid to the Communist North for its final solution in the South. Resulting in millions of S.E. Asian deaths afterwards.

The Democrats are now doing all they can to duplicate that devasting 1974 Election Victory in Election year 2006 ..with the death of millions again in their cards.

The Enemy is now Within...
...and always has been.

They must be STOPPED this time, or else...

http://www.Freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1308949/posts



.


54 posted on 05/22/2006 9:14:27 PM PDT by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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To: GOPsterinMA

Kyl would be a good choice.


55 posted on 05/22/2006 9:39:18 PM PDT by ShuShu
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To: Tall_Texan

The DUmmies will find enough dead voters to vote several times to steal another election.

What was the final on the Washington law suits against the DUmmie tricks ?


56 posted on 05/22/2006 9:43:28 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: Alberta's Child

The last New Jersey Senate race was amazing. The twists and turns was better than the Sopranos.

If Kean's numbers stay high, the dog and pony show will start again.


57 posted on 05/22/2006 9:45:56 PM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: ALOHA RONNIE

Thanks for the ping!


58 posted on 05/22/2006 11:36:10 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: Russ

The ploy of running a pro-life Democrat (Casey) is going to backfire because the liberal base will not be energized to bring out the huge Phila aree majority necessary for the Democrats to win the state. Casey's lead shrinking,


59 posted on 05/23/2006 1:48:09 AM PDT by Bushbacker (f---)
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To: UNGN

I'll move NEBRASKA into the Contests the next time I update the list. At this point, is DOUBTFUL GOP (30% chance) reasonable?


60 posted on 05/23/2006 3:20:00 AM PDT by RobFromGa (In decline, the Driveby Media is thrashing about like dinosaurs caught in the tar pits.)
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