SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- May 2006

self | May 22, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

Here are my predictions as of today for the 2006 Senate races. I don't profess to be an expert on each of these races, and there could be some mistakes here. But the way I see it, the GOP currently has 48 safe seats and the Dems/Socialists have 41.

SAFE SEATS (GOP)

AZ- R- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum

SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)

VT- I- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders likely
CA- D- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman safe (faces Dem challenger Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
MI- D- Stabenow safe? (GOP Primary Aug 8)
NE- D- Nelson safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WV- D- Byrd safe (health?)
WI- D- Kohl safe
14 safe + 27 carryovers = 41 minimum

I see eleven "Contests" at present, ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. With TN, VA, and MO we still have a 51 seat majority. With OH and RI, we are at 53, for a net loss of two. (I think -2 Seats is our worst case scenario barring catastrophe)

The tossups I see are MN, MT, and NJ-- with two of three we are at no change, with all three we are at +1. (I think +1 seats is our best case likely scenario)

The CONTESTS according to RobFromGa :

LIKELY GOP
TN- R- open(Frist seat) ? vs. Ford(D) (90% chance GOP)
VA- R- Allen vs. ? (90% chance GOP)
MO- R- Talent vs. McCaskill (80% chance GOP)

PROBABLE GOP
OH- R- DeWine(I) vs. Brown (60% chance GOP)
RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative)

TOSSUPS
MN- D- open (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy (50% chance GOP)
MT- R- Keenan needs to beat Burns(I) in primary (50% chance GOP)
NJ- D- Menendez(I) vs. Kean (50% chance RINO)

DOUBTFUL GOP
PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)
WA- D- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick (30% chance GOP)

[RobFromGa]

I think our biggest recruiting missteps were in FL, NE and ND-- the GOP should have all those states with the right candidates...

[Malesherbes]

Good analysis. The Senate has proved worthless except for approving judicial nominations after every member has spent hours on C-SPAN bloviating. Still, a RINO Senate is at least marginally better than one run by the Dims. I do hope Santorum makes it. He's one of the few with real integrity.

My real hopes lie with the House. That's where real damage can be done if the Dims take over.

[UNGN]

It's only May. Nelson is "up 19 points" but only at 54%, that is pretty shaky in a Republican state.

When the issue becomes "do you want Ted Kennedy, Harry Reid, et al to run the Senate, the "likeable" Ben Nelson will be kicked to the curb. Nebraskans will have no stomach for that.

Also, for a guy who is supposedly aided by "Bush's low poll numbers", Ben Nelson sure is sucking up to him.

[Alberta's Child]

While Menendez is one of the most mediocre candidates on the scene today and is running as a half-@ssed incumbent, I don't see Kean winning NJ at all. Pardon my French, but New Jersey is one of the most f#cked up states in the U.S. -- and it will probably be decades before it elects anything remotely close to a normal, well-adjusted human being to public office on a statewide level.

[paul51]

89 safe seats out of 100? The senate is either doing a great job or the elections are a farce.

[Ike]

"If they can clean up the fraud in Philly, that will help a lot."


See my tagline...

[Rummyfan]

MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)

I think Steele has a good chance, especially if Mfume makes a mess of the Dem primary.

[TRY ONE]

Yogi: "90% of this game is half mental"!

[TRY ONE]

Yogi: "90% of this game is half mental"!

[old_sage_says]

Senator Allen from VA will most likely be re-elected, but I think the election will be closer than some predict.

Senator Warner is up for re-election in 2008, but I have a feeling he won't run if Tom Delay gets in the mix. Warner is not as well-liked as he once was. Myself, I have been very disppointed in him, except for his votes on SCOTUS.

[Young Scholar]

Only 1/3 are up each cycle.

[paul51]

Yes, I realize tthat. How many do you suppose will change over? It's a joke

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I think our biggest recruiting missteps were in FL, NE and ND-- the GOP should have all those states with the right candidates...

Yeah, I remember us waiting around for someone strong to emerge to take on the Democrats in those states, particularly in North Dakota, and it never happened, and in the case of Harris, her candidacy just went down the tubes.

[ALOHA RONNIE]

.

Today BRUCE HERSHENSON stated at the Nixon Presidential Library that till now the most important American Election was the after-Watergate 1974 Election, after President NIXON had been forced to resign for Watergate.

It was immediately after this Democrat Victory that Senator FRANK CHURCH's Investigating Committee started depleting our intelligence community and exposing secret agents and those who cooperated with them abroad ..leading to many deaths.

This Democratic Congress then cut off all funding for the Free South Vietnamese to fight for their own Freedom with, 2 1/2 years before the Vietnam War's end. This as the Communist Soviet Union gave $6 Billion in Military aid to the Communist North for its final solution in the South. Resulting in millions of S.E. Asian deaths afterwards.

The Democrats are now doing all they can to duplicate that devasting 1974 Election Victory in Election year 2006 ..with the death of millions again in their cards.

The Enemy is now Within...
...and always has been.

They must be STOPPED this time, or else...

http://www.Freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1308949/posts



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[ShuShu]

Kyl would be a good choice.

[george76]

The DUmmies will find enough dead voters to vote several times to steal another election.

What was the final on the Washington law suits against the DUmmie tricks ?

[george76]

The last New Jersey Senate race was amazing. The twists and turns was better than the Sopranos.

If Kean's numbers stay high, the dog and pony show will start again.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Bushbacker]

The ploy of running a pro-life Democrat (Casey) is going to backfire because the liberal base will not be energized to bring out the huge Phila aree majority necessary for the Democrats to win the state. Casey's lead shrinking,

[RobFromGa]

I'll move NEBRASKA into the Contests the next time I update the list. At this point, is DOUBTFUL GOP (30% chance) reasonable?