When the issue becomes "do you want Ted Kennedy, Harry Reid, et al to run the Senate, the "likeable" Ben Nelson will be kicked to the curb. Nebraskans will have no stomach for that.
Also, for a guy who is supposedly aided by "Bush's low poll numbers", Ben Nelson sure is sucking up to him.
I'll move NEBRASKA into the Contests the next time I update the list. At this point, is DOUBTFUL GOP (30% chance) reasonable?