You are correct, proper values were instilled in the household and by decent teachers, unlike most today.
Posted on 04/17/2006 1:32:48 PM PDT by SLB
CBN.com – (CBN News) - Some believe that the world as we have known it is about to change.
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) is talking about what he thinks could be the biggest challenge in our nation's history.
"The world has never faced a problem like this," Bartlett said.
A huge and sustained increase in the price of oil that would devastate our economy and the world economy, and would force all of us to change the way we live. Why?
It is a phenomenon known as "peak oil." The idea is that oil is a finite resource. There is only so much of it in the ground, and eventually we will start to run out.
One of the leading advocates of this theory is oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons. In his book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, Simmons uses reams of hard geological data to argue that the oil fields of Saudi Arabia -- the world's largest producer -- are in serious decline, and prices for oil at some point will skyrocket.
The quantity and price of oil follows a bell curve. When Saudi oil was first discovered and oil production was growing, the amount of Saudi oil on the market kept increasing, assuring low prices. But at the point when Saudi oil production falls and can no longer meet demand, prices go up.
And because energy-hungry nations like China and India are in the midst of economic booms, the demand for energy is increasing daily, while the supply of oil, if it is shrinking, will make oil scarcer, and much more expensive.
Some of us remember gasoline prices of 29 cents a gallon or less. Today, we have gotten used to gas prices that were once unthinkable. But what if gas prices were $7 a gallon, or more?
Bartlett said, "The peaking may have already occurred. If not now, then very soon. So I think we are probably beyond the point where we can avoid the consequences of peaking. I think what we need to do now is to simply minimize the consequences of peaking. I don't think we have a prayer of avoiding the consequences of peaking."
What is the absolute worst-case scenario from peak oil? A world war over oil supplies. But the less dire economic scenarios are not much better. It would most certainly lead to a deep worldwide recession, or even a depression.
Our economy and way of life has been built around affordable oil. Many of us live in the suburbs. We have to drive to work, to grocery stores, to just about everywhere. We enjoy a high standard of living, thanks to affordable goods and services made possible because of cheap energy.
An oil price spike to perhaps $200 dollars a barrel or more could wreck whole sectors of our economy, like the airline industry, which is already hurting from oil at $70 a barrel. Just think what would happen if airline ticket prices tripled from today's levels!
Peak oil prices would also pour a lot more money into the coffers of some regimes around the world who do not like the United States.
But if there is a plus side to peak oil, it is that unaffordable oil would finally force businesses to invest seriously in developing alternative fuel technologies.
Simmons' book has created such a stir in the energy industry that the world's largest oil company, ExxonMobil, created an ad to dispute it. It says that the Earth still has plenty of untapped oil to meet demand for decades to come.
Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a free-market think-tank, said, “At some point, oil production will peak. I think that is a long ways away…In the early 1930s, the Department of Interior estimated that we'd run out of oil by 1940. So there's a long history of predicting these things, and most of the predictions turn out not to be true.”
There is plenty of oil in the ground right here in America, but environmental protection laws prevent us from drilling for it.
Ebell also observed, “There are political obstacles to oil production in many places in the world -- most seriously in the United States.”
But if Simmons is right, America is facing a serious problem that Bartlett warns may now be too late to prepare for. He says we must begin to conserve, and to develop other sources of energy.
“I think this is going to be the overarching problem for the next decade,” Bartlett said. “We will transition from fossil fuels to renewables (renewable energy). Geology will insist on that. It will be a really bumpy ride or a less bumpy ride, depending on how we relate ourselves to it and what we do now.”
And everyone -- from President Bush on down -- knows how much America depends on oil. Bush has said that "America is addicted to oil."
And if the prediction of peak oil is true, America needs to start moving away from oil as an energy source as soon as possible.
The corn in your example has $5 value. If you feed the cow with it, it cost you 5 dollars.
Meanwhile, fifty percent of the vehicles in Brazil are running on ethanol.
They saw the problem coming, and dared to defy the oil companies years ago. Our illustrious leaders had to have seen the problem coming; but liked the campaign contributions(and their own stock portfolio) more than their country, apparently.
Incidently, I heard today that soy biodiesel is reportedly getting BETTER mileage than regular diesel fuel...a test is being planned. Yet another new plant was just announced here today...they (and the ethanol plants) are springing up like tulips.
I used to get 5 cent Cokes at the boat marina- a nickel unlocked the gate, and you could take as many as you wanted- but we were raised better than to try.
Because demand is increasing, even if the supply of oil stays the same, oil is going to be scarcer and much more expensive.
We might as well get used to that idea.
I never thought I'd own an SUV- not due to any idealogical quarrel, but a pickup truck ( moving things ) or a van ( moving people ) would have served my needs better.
Three years ago, my wife's Mom started deteriorating in health, but she stubbornly refused to move from her house 'way out in the country.
And her old dog started falling apart, too.
The car I had was at the "honk if parts fall off" stage ( old story- when I had time to fix it, no money, got the money, ran out of time... ) and it was too low for old critters to get in & out easily.
In the middle of all this, my MIL's neighbor put a gold Isuzu up for sale next to his borrow pit, and the tall, wide doors looked a lot better for ad hoc medical transporting. Immaculate condition, too. And her neighbor gave me $200 to take the old junker off my hands.
Until recently, we also had a lot of "county-improved" roads ( graded red clay, ie, a skid pan when wet ) that were better traversed with a 4x4 or at least a big truck.
Not to criticize you specifically, but all you SUV / pickup (otherwise known as tough guy costumes) owners, what were you thinking when you bought them. It’s been know for YEARS that gas prices were only going up.
http://www.platts.com/Oil/News/8377179.xml
Please note this paragraph: " "This maintain potential drilling in mature fields combined with a multitude of remedial actions and the development of new fields, with long plateau lives, lowers the composite decline rate of producing fields to around 2%," the spokesman said."
Now, when you consider the Saudi's are broke, where are they going to get the money for the new drilling, expected to cost in the billions?
would you like to discuss this offline?
Please read this report from a couple months ago.
Brazil Sugar Ethanol Update – February 2006, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service">
It reports that ethanol accounts for approximately 15% of the fuel used in Brazil.
What Brazil has done that made the biggest difference in the last decade was start producing much more of its petroleum resouces. If you will look at the following link, you will see how they quit needing foreign oil.
You are correct, proper values were instilled in the household and by decent teachers, unlike most today.
Several things come into play: A large family that is many miles from relatives. Try driving 1300 miles each way with five kids in a Chevy Impala and see what I mean. Safety - six years ago a 18 YO decided to rear end us as we were going home after church. Score - GMC Suburban 1, Mitsubishi 3000GT 0. On top of all, if I could not afford to keep the tank filled I would not own it. (If you promise not to go into cardiac arrest I will let you in on a secret, I have TWO Suburbans)
Maybe four wheel drive isn't too useful in Maryland... but if you want to get where you're going when you want to get there, in winter in North Dakota, it can be nearly a necessity. Cars are pretty poor off-road if you're into that, too (my fleet's a Kawasaki KLR650 dual-sport bike, a Dodge Dakota 4x4, and a Ford T-bird... guess which one stays home when it's time for fun in the dirt?)
I always liked the way my Dad put it:
1) - I was taught stealing was wrong...
2) - It's in the Good Book, Thou shalt not steal...
3) -If I stole something, several of my neighbors would have beaten the $%^! out of me...
The old system may offend ethereal types, but it worked quite well in practice.
Well, I can't speak to other cars, but I get about 9 mpg over the EPA rating for my car for highway driving. My car is rated a 26 and I pretty consistently get around 35 on the highway.
Again, I think a big part of it is that I drive the speed limit (or within 5 mph) and I don't accelerate hard. I keep my distance from other cars so when I'm on the highway I'm not constantly braking and accelerating.
Sure you're not looking at the kilometer scale? (just joking)
You know not what you say.............
Heh heh. :-)
The EPA notes that heavy braking and quick acceleration can reduce fuel economy by up to 1/3 at highway speeds--that's a lot.
I don't know your driving habits, but I'd encourage you, if you don't already, to drive the speed limit and don't tailgate other cars on the expressway for one tank of gas and see how much it changes your fuel economy. I think you might be surprised.
You know not what you say.............
----
Well, maybe not, but I can read a balance sheet, and understand the implications of very large increases in profits and the disclosures of where they came from.
Some people call it gouging. Some call it just wanting to raise their income. I call it greed. A rose by any other name...
Your father was more then right.
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