Posted on 04/04/2006 1:33:44 PM PDT by Mikey_1962
There are ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production -- with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas -- parts ofIndia,Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia -- where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon. The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree -- a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars' worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
And they are now?
Ping to #1
Yes. Not for accurate predictions, mind you*, but for actual evaluation of current climate influences and trends, they can (and are) used to evaluate Earth's climate
* partly due to unresolvable uncertainty regarding societal, technological, and economic changes in the future
Fortunately, computation power is increasing and adequate models should arrive in the next decade or so.
The short answer is, the current state of the models is sufficient to determine Earth's climate state and discern the primary effects of changing climate "drivers" There is still uncertainty in the size of some climate influences and feedbacks, clouds notably being one of the larger uncertainties. For this reason, every model output is always associated with some uncertainty, so that model output will not provide exact replication of events and trends. For example, while coupled-ocean atmosphere models generally reproduce ENSO frequency, they have yet to capture a good reproduction of individual event intensity or actual event timing. But they still characterize the ENSO contribution to global climate over decades well.
I think they were good science fiction.
The lenticular clouds I see outside my window right now are from the MCS and are blocking the sun. Is it ok if we just subsitute the insolation from Richmond instead? I don't think so.
So the question is; should I have my Crown Royal at room temperature or on the rocks? If the heat or the cold don't kill me, the Crown will make the choice of what to believe easier at least. Another Crown will kill the pain from the quivering fear that something may kill me. But I bet it isn't the weather.
Brief reply: the question regarding the current state of climate models is one of spatial and temporal resolution. The current state of the GCMs is that they have sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to ascertain the primary factors driving global climate with reasonable accuracy. They don't have sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to accurately reproduce annual meteorological variability. Does that make sense?
The leftover lenticular clouds from my MCS yesterday either had no effect on climate or they had an effect that a model can average over space and time by adding a parameter. Will there be fewer or more MCS's with increased water vapor? How will their cooling affect larger scale weather and climate? We don't get the answer from the model since they aren't modeled. We don't know how THE primary factor driving global climate leads to a mixture of cooling and warming over what areas. That does not lead to a global climate prediction of "reasonable" accuracy at all.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.