[palmer]

I am aware that models don't need to recreate real events, just a reasonable facsimile of them. The problem is that the smaller scale events matter because they effect the larger scale weather. The medium scale vortex that happened here can't exist in any 200 mile climate model. OTOH, ENSO requires no small or medium scale modelling to reproduce accurately. Modelling ENSO relies on large scale inputs like overall reflectivity of clouds, reradiation of enery, etc. Those can be derived from fine weather models, but they are not in the GCM models used to model ENSO.

The lenticular clouds I see outside my window right now are from the MCS and are blocking the sun. Is it ok if we just subsitute the insolation from Richmond instead? I don't think so.

[cogitator]

Brief reply: the question regarding the current state of climate models is one of spatial and temporal resolution. The current state of the GCMs is that they have sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to ascertain the primary factors driving global climate with reasonable accuracy. They don't have sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to accurately reproduce annual meteorological variability. Does that make sense?