Posted on 02/27/2006 10:08:01 AM PST by mathprof
Most polls say a majority of registered voters would vote Democrat if the congressional elections were held today, but a new independent polling analysis now finds that Republicans could lead among people who actually vote.
The CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll reported last week that the Democrats led Republicans among registered voters in the generic congressional survey by 50 percent to 43 percent, a seven-point margin that could give Democrats enough victories to take control of the House, if their supporters participate in November's elections.
But a deeper analysis of these numbers by David W. Moore for the Gallup Poll said, "It is likely many voters will not do so" because turnout among registered voters tends to be lower than that among "likely voters" who say they plan to vote and usually do.
In his analysis, Mr. Moore writes that Gallup's "experience over the past two midterm elections, in 1998 and 2002, suggests that the [registered voters] numbers tend to overstate the Democratic margin by about 10? percentage points."
"Given that Democrats currently lead by seven points, that could mean that among people who will definitely vote, Republicans actually lead by three to four points," he said.
Republican election strategists long have maintained the so-called generic numbers, in which voters are asked which party they will support in the elections, without mentioning a specific candidate, skew in favor of the Democrats.
Mr. Moore's admission about past generic polls of registered voters is rare, coming from a major polling organization, Republican campaign strategists said last week.
"It's an amazing, very rare admission. Republican pollsters have argued for the last couple of decades that the generic congressional polls always overstate the Democrats' participation," said Wes Anderson, a pollster with OnMessage Inc, a Republican polling and media firm.
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
Now if we could only get rid of our governor, Janet Napolitano.......................
Great, Repubs stand a good chance.
Now if we could just get some conservatives elected.
She will still be the Senator from New York, she just won't be President of the United States of America.
1/3 of Dem "voters" never get turn-off the soaps, close the bag of chips, get up off their asses, and actually go to the polls to vote. A poll of "the public" is always useless because of this.
Which is really all that matters.
And yet most pollsters still use "registered voters" as their sample.
Well, for starters there could be a choice. Running unopposed is a joke.
Here we go again... The only numbers that matter are those taken within a given political race, such as a Congressional District or state, in che case of Senators. Most people say they would favor their party, but when it comes down to electing someone, it's almost always the incumbent -- regardless of their political party. This poll is completely meaningless.
And the talking heads, and many here on FR, sight them as valid proof of whatever point they are pushing that day.
Finally somebody digs deep enough to see the truth. The best example is "Rock the Vote"...aren't they just about to close up shop...didn't vote...huummmm, even though that was to be non partisian, just get out the vote, what happened...they went to free concerts, registered but couldn't remember what day to go to the polls...to busy listening to their lovely hate music.
It's all in the boundary lines. Most Dem or GOP districts are *entrenched*. The Dems are still wishing for a seachange and they aren't going to get one. If anything, the redistricting in Texas, Georgia and elsewhere will make the GOP stronger than they were in 2000.
Well .. according to our own DrDeb - most of the polsters are misusing their polling models so we should not be relying on any polls unless we know the stats they are using. If you check out DrDeb's posts - you will see some guidelines for what polls are accurate and what polls are not.
Remember .. polsters can ask questions to get whatever result they want .. and the dems are good at skewing the questions.
First good news I've heard in awhile.
Thanks for posting this. It is interesting.
That is why Oregon, Washington state and several others are going to all mail-in voting in lots of elections. Then these dead beats can vote from home while watching Opra.
This is shocking! (not)
Third party Freepers are deeply saddened.
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