Posted on 02/18/2006 4:34:05 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)
He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldn’t be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalwire.com ...
This is idiotic. The world and the country is better under Republican leadership, I know I am. The economy is growing, employment is up and terrorism is under control.
There is noting to this survey, everyone knows how much better things are now.
Both those birds take $$$ from Soros.
True, but in 2004 Shaw's original opponent was a gay from Wilton Manors (Jim Stork) who withdrew late in the race for some mysterious reason. The local RATs replaced Stork with some sacrificial lamb party aparatchik who Shaw destroyed. It probably won't be as easy this time, and Shaw's health is an issue now too.
Oddly, Alcee Hastings has endorsed Shaw.
Biased is a fair description of the list. Where the hell are such Democrat incumbents occupying GOP-leaning (or are just generally troubled) in districts such as:
Vic Snyder (AR-3), far too liberal for his Little Rock seat.
John Salazar (CO-3), brother of liberal Sen. Ken, sitting in a GOP district because of a internecine GOP primary battle in '04 and poor showing of the party overall.
Allen Boyd (FL-2), now a GOP-leaning panhandle district.
Jim Marshall (GA-8), whom most reasonable individuals expect to lose former Rep. Mac Collins in a reconfigured heavily GOP district.
John Barrow (GA-12), expected to face a tight rematch against ex-Rep. Max Burns in a reconfigured GOP-leaning district.
Dennis Moore (KS-3), always in jeopardy due to it being a GOP district.
Ben Chandler (KY-6), sits in a GOP district that he won in a special over a weak GOP candidate.
Bill Jefferson (LA-2), yes, I'm putting him on there because with the current demographics of New Orleans and a potential criminal conviction, we could make a play for the seat.
Charlie Melancon (LA-3), sits in a GOP district that he won because of a brutal GOP battle. His GOP opponent, Craig Romero, has unified support.
Bennie Thompson (MS-2), a bit iffy, but he faces an ugly primary challenge, and if he emerges, and if our party ponies up the $$, Yvonne Brown could provide a potential upset.
Tim Bishop (NY-1), Steve Israel (NY-2), Carolyn McCarthy (NY-4), despite erosion of the Long Island GOP, a strong well-funded challenge to any of the 3 could put the seats back in our column where they were prior to the '90s.
Bob Etheridge (NC-2), sitting in a seat far too GOP for a liberal, but has faced no strong challenges since he upset the incumbent one-term GOPer in '96.
Brad Miller (NC-13), a gerrymandered seat for the 'Rats, but one still carried by Dubya. The GOP should find a decent candidate to take him on.
Earl Pomeroy (ND-At Large), a perennial target in a state that is heavily GOP but hasn't elected one in 26 years.
Darlene Hooley (OR-5), also a perennial target in a GOP district. Oregon remains overrepresented by Democrats at the federal House level.
John Murtha (PA-12), yes, THAT guy. His district may lean 'Rat, but it ain't of the pinko anti-American kind. Surely SOME well-funded GOP challenger can step up and take this disgusting terrorist-loving pig out of his seat. After all, this seat WAS GOP before he won it.
Tim Holden (PA-17), not a nut like Murtha, but a Republican should be occupying this seat.
John Spratt (SC-5), too liberal for his seat and has escaped strong challengers for a dozen years. No Democrat should still be holding any office in SC but the 6th (and hopefully we'll do something about that in the next 10 years, too).
Stephanie Herseth (SD-At Large), she's cute, but she's too liberal for the state and a Republican belongs here (thanks a lot, Bill Janklow).
Lincoln Davis (TN-4), more like Holden of PA, but this Republican district needs to send one (we're overrepresented with 'Rats due to gerrymandering in TN). Van Hilleary should be challenging him.
Bart Gordon (TN-6), the 'Rats protected him with gerrymandering, but he is a relic in an area that becomes more and more GOP by the day in the suburban counties around Nashville.
Chet Edwards (TX-17), a slick liberal 'Rat who needs to be bounced from this heavily GOP district.
Jim Matheson (UT-2), a Democrat -- in UTAH ? C'mon, guys !
Rick Boucher (VA-9), this district should be sending a Republican, and Boucher has been in office nearly a quarter-century, he needs to go.
Rick Larsen (WA-2), should be a district we can strongly challenge in a margin area with a well-funded candidate. It's been 12 years since we snatched back a seat for the GOP in WA state.
Alan Mollohan (WV-1), WV continues to move more and more towards the GOP, and a growing farm team for the party in the legislature spells trouble for long-term incumbents like Mollohan. State Del. Chris Wakim is challenging him this time, the first viable GOP challenger he has faced since his first election in 1982.
Nick Rahall (WV-3), although still historically 'Rat, he has been in for 30 years, and faces the same trouble at the grass roots that Mollohan does. He is likely facing the Cabell County (Huntington) Sheriff and Vietnam War Veteran Kim Wolfe.
David Obey (WI-7), in the name of Melvin Laird, this district ought be brought back after 37 years of this despicable turd to the GOP.
I would think Spratt in SC would be on the list... just to balance things out a bit with one more Democrat.
Shays, Shaw, and Simmons have been on the endangered list since they were first elected. I remember when Gwen Margolis was going to "trounce" Clay Shaw in 1992. He's still there and Gwen Margolis is merely another upset Jewish mother with a gay son. ;-)
As much as I despise Nancy Jonhson (R-CT) I think she has a tough battle against pro-abort Christopher Murphy (D). He's been running and getting landslides in CT state elections. He'll only cause more damage if he gets into the federal office.
Both Mollohan and Rahall are safe in WV while GOP Congresswoman Capito could well be vunerable.
The GOP has little in the way of an effective statewide orginization to go after Mollohan or Rahall.
Capito will go the way the economy goes, and right now the economy sucks in WV.
I think Ney's safe. He still enjoys considerable support from the base, and the local Dems can't seem to find a legitimate challenger...
Oy vey ! No wonder she's so meshugana.
In the late '60s, the GOP was on its way to majority status in WV, but was absolutely obliterated by Watergate. It's almost getting back up to those early '70s numbers again, and it's looking very hopeful for the state party for the long run (the Democrats there were never of the social left and the voters are very uncomfortable with the national party). I think Capito has established herself in her seat. I do believe both Rahall and Mollohan to be potentially vulnerable (emphasis on "potentially"). Our best shots are likely when the seats come open, and strong and well-funded challenges will likely urge them into retirement.
Hey stuie try this: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1567820/posts
Here's 25 reaswons why you don't know your ash from your elbow!
But w/ the possible exception of protecting out borders, the WOD is blatantly unconstitutional. There is noting in the Constitution that gives the federal government the authority to make the use of recreational drugs illegal. The 9th & 10th Amendments leave those powers to the states.
Ney, Delay, and Gerlach will lose, I predict. Simmons and Shays are tossups, but if I had to guess, will lose. I doubt Wilson will lose, but maybe. Shaw and Sodrel I doubt will lose. I don't have a clue about Bean and Hostettler, particularly the latter. Marshall of Georgia should be on the list for the Dems. It is a tossup.
Some other Pubbie incumbents are in trouble, but some other time.
Wrong year for all of them to be in trouble, except Marshall, who has a strong opponent and a hostile redone district now.
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