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To: Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; Kuksool

Biased is a fair description of the list. Where the hell are such Democrat incumbents occupying GOP-leaning (or are just generally troubled) in districts such as:

Vic Snyder (AR-3), far too liberal for his Little Rock seat.

John Salazar (CO-3), brother of liberal Sen. Ken, sitting in a GOP district because of a internecine GOP primary battle in '04 and poor showing of the party overall.

Allen Boyd (FL-2), now a GOP-leaning panhandle district.

Jim Marshall (GA-8), whom most reasonable individuals expect to lose former Rep. Mac Collins in a reconfigured heavily GOP district.

John Barrow (GA-12), expected to face a tight rematch against ex-Rep. Max Burns in a reconfigured GOP-leaning district.

Dennis Moore (KS-3), always in jeopardy due to it being a GOP district.

Ben Chandler (KY-6), sits in a GOP district that he won in a special over a weak GOP candidate.

Bill Jefferson (LA-2), yes, I'm putting him on there because with the current demographics of New Orleans and a potential criminal conviction, we could make a play for the seat.

Charlie Melancon (LA-3), sits in a GOP district that he won because of a brutal GOP battle. His GOP opponent, Craig Romero, has unified support.

Bennie Thompson (MS-2), a bit iffy, but he faces an ugly primary challenge, and if he emerges, and if our party ponies up the $$, Yvonne Brown could provide a potential upset.

Tim Bishop (NY-1), Steve Israel (NY-2), Carolyn McCarthy (NY-4), despite erosion of the Long Island GOP, a strong well-funded challenge to any of the 3 could put the seats back in our column where they were prior to the '90s.

Bob Etheridge (NC-2), sitting in a seat far too GOP for a liberal, but has faced no strong challenges since he upset the incumbent one-term GOPer in '96.

Brad Miller (NC-13), a gerrymandered seat for the 'Rats, but one still carried by Dubya. The GOP should find a decent candidate to take him on.

Earl Pomeroy (ND-At Large), a perennial target in a state that is heavily GOP but hasn't elected one in 26 years.

Darlene Hooley (OR-5), also a perennial target in a GOP district. Oregon remains overrepresented by Democrats at the federal House level.

John Murtha (PA-12), yes, THAT guy. His district may lean 'Rat, but it ain't of the pinko anti-American kind. Surely SOME well-funded GOP challenger can step up and take this disgusting terrorist-loving pig out of his seat. After all, this seat WAS GOP before he won it.

Tim Holden (PA-17), not a nut like Murtha, but a Republican should be occupying this seat.

John Spratt (SC-5), too liberal for his seat and has escaped strong challengers for a dozen years. No Democrat should still be holding any office in SC but the 6th (and hopefully we'll do something about that in the next 10 years, too).

Stephanie Herseth (SD-At Large), she's cute, but she's too liberal for the state and a Republican belongs here (thanks a lot, Bill Janklow).

Lincoln Davis (TN-4), more like Holden of PA, but this Republican district needs to send one (we're overrepresented with 'Rats due to gerrymandering in TN). Van Hilleary should be challenging him.

Bart Gordon (TN-6), the 'Rats protected him with gerrymandering, but he is a relic in an area that becomes more and more GOP by the day in the suburban counties around Nashville.

Chet Edwards (TX-17), a slick liberal 'Rat who needs to be bounced from this heavily GOP district.

Jim Matheson (UT-2), a Democrat -- in UTAH ? C'mon, guys !

Rick Boucher (VA-9), this district should be sending a Republican, and Boucher has been in office nearly a quarter-century, he needs to go.

Rick Larsen (WA-2), should be a district we can strongly challenge in a margin area with a well-funded candidate. It's been 12 years since we snatched back a seat for the GOP in WA state.

Alan Mollohan (WV-1), WV continues to move more and more towards the GOP, and a growing farm team for the party in the legislature spells trouble for long-term incumbents like Mollohan. State Del. Chris Wakim is challenging him this time, the first viable GOP challenger he has faced since his first election in 1982.

Nick Rahall (WV-3), although still historically 'Rat, he has been in for 30 years, and faces the same trouble at the grass roots that Mollohan does. He is likely facing the Cabell County (Huntington) Sheriff and Vietnam War Veteran Kim Wolfe.

David Obey (WI-7), in the name of Melvin Laird, this district ought be brought back after 37 years of this despicable turd to the GOP.


46 posted on 02/18/2006 6:20:29 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (Cheney X -- Destroying the Liberal Democrat Traitors By Any Means Necessary -- Ya Dig ? Sho 'Nuff.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Both Mollohan and Rahall are safe in WV while GOP Congresswoman Capito could well be vunerable.

The GOP has little in the way of an effective statewide orginization to go after Mollohan or Rahall.

Capito will go the way the economy goes, and right now the economy sucks in WV.


51 posted on 02/18/2006 6:59:19 PM PST by buckalfa
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Wrong year for all of them to be in trouble, except Marshall, who has a strong opponent and a hostile redone district now.


60 posted on 02/18/2006 7:33:06 PM PST by Torie
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To: fieldmarshaldj
Bill Jefferson (LA-2), yes, I'm putting him on there because with the current demographics of New Orleans and a potential criminal conviction, we could make a play for the seat.

The Mayor's race is going to occupy New Orleans attention for the time being. In Orleans Parish, the GOP has always been screwed up. I agree this is a winnable seat but the Pubbies may be asleep at the switch on this one.

I also agree with you about Chet Edwards. How the hell he gets re-elected is beyond me.

94 posted on 02/18/2006 9:51:24 PM PST by bigeasy_70118
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To: fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican
Sorry to say, but Carolyn McCarthy will have NY-4 (my childhood congressional district) until she retires. Its a shame the RINOs in the State Senate didn't fight to give the western and central portions of her district (Valley Stream, Elmont, Hempstead, etc.) to Gregory Meeks's neighboring district.

Steve Israel represents a districy (NY-2) that was represented from the 1970s-1990s by ultra-liberal Thomas "Not that there's anything wrong with it!" Downey. Lots of union members and Jewish Americans in that district make it lean Democratic. True, Lazio held it back in the mid-90s, but that was more of a fluke than anything else.

Tim Bishop (NY-1) would be the most vulnerable were we to get a strong candidate with good financial backing. The limo liberals in the Hamptons vote in Manhattan, and the "hired help" in Riverhead don't vote at all. Granted, this was the district of conservative Democrat Otis Pike back in the 1960s, but otherwise should be a GOP district. While it is true that Brookhaven Town (largest town in the district) is now controlled by the Dems, that is due more to local issues than any demographic changes.

In Washington (from where I am typing) Larsen and Inslee would be vulnerable had the State Senate in Washington (under Republican control from 2000-2002) hadn't been rolled over by Gary Locke in the redistricting process. This effectively split Snohomish County, which is the fastest growing county in the state, and one which is finally turning Republican (lots of middle to high income families with kids from out of state). If Snohomish had been combined with Skagit into a single district, it would be at least 55% GOP, with the numbers climbing every year.

Instead, we have a situation where the GOP vote in north Snohomish and Skagit are outvoted by the aging Hippies in Whatcom County/Bellingham City, allowing Larsen to hold the seat. Likewise, Inslee gets enough votes from the liberals in North King County, Bainbridge Island, and Everett to negate the Republican votes in southern and central Snohomish.

135 posted on 02/19/2006 12:48:14 PM PST by Clemenza (I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by madness, starving hysterical naked...)
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To: fieldmarshaldj
Bob Etheridge (NC-2), sitting in a seat far too GOP for a liberal, but has faced no strong challenges since he upset the incumbent one-term GOPer in '96.

Long past time for him to go. I had dealings with this joker back in the early 80s when he was just in the state house. He had voted for some bill that enabled schools in his district to buy computers from my employer.

He then came to the door of our computer store and demanded his free computer. I wish my boss had had the balls to call the SBI right then.

(FWIW, he had enough balls to refuse him his freebie.)

146 posted on 02/19/2006 2:31:54 PM PST by TC Rider (The United States Constitution © 1791. All Rights Reserved.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj
Dennis Moore (KS-3), always in jeopardy due to it being a GOP district.

I live in Kansas 3rd and I'm here to tell you that I've not heard of a single GOP challenger for Moore in this election. His last opponent, Kris Kobach, lost by 11 and a half points in 2004, such a horrendous margin that he can't be considered a serious challenger anymore. The moderate Republican from 2002, Adam Taff, just got sent to jail for 15 months for messing with his campaign money. Nobody is stepping up yet, nobody has been seriously mentioned, and with Moore's campaign chest time is running short. Look for Kansas Third to remain solidly in the Democrat camp.

152 posted on 02/19/2006 3:23:25 PM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Kuksool; Clintonfatigued

"Vic Snyder (AR-3), far too liberal for his Little Rock seat."



Amen. He's probably the third most liberal white Democrat congressman in the South (after Doggett of Austin and Price of Chapel Hill, NC), and his district gave President Bush 51%. The Republican running against him is currently unknown but he has an outstanding name (Andy Mayberry; makes me think of Sheriff Andy Taylor of Mayberry in The Andy Griffith Show), a gorgeous family (especially little Katie, born with spina bifida) a business background, and the right issue positions for the district. See http://www.andymayberryforcongress.com/
This is a race to watch.

"John Salazar (CO-3), brother of liberal Sen. Ken, sitting in a GOP district because of a internecine GOP primary battle in '04 and poor showing of the party overall."


President Bush got 55% in the district in 2004, and unless the GOP again nominates a candidate who had pissed off the entire western half of the district due to the water issue it will be a very close race in 2006, with an excellent chance of getting the seat back to the GOP column.

"Allen Boyd (FL-2), now a GOP-leaning panhandle district."


Boyd has a moderate voting record and cast some conservative votes once in a while, so he'll be hard to dislodge even though President Bush got 54% in 2004. If House Speaker Allen Bense ran against Boyd I think we'd have a good chance, but barring a top-tier candidate Boyd will win handily.

"Jim Marshall (GA-8), whom most reasonable individuals expect to lose former Rep. Mac Collins in a reconfigured heavily GOP district."


IF the GOP re-redistricting is upheld in court and is used in 2006 (which I don't think will be the case, since the GA case is different from TX in that the TX legislature had not approved new maps after the 2000 Census while the GA legislature already had their chance), then Marshall is meat. But under the current lines, Marshall has a fighting chance against a top-tier candidate and would be favored against a second-tier candidate. What ex-Congressman Mac Collins should do is move to Monroe County just south of his home in Butts County so that he will be living in the district whether or not the new lines are upheld in court---my money is on Mac even if the election is held with the old lines, since President Bush got 55% in the district in 2004 and Governor Perdue ran extremely strong in the district in 2002 and will probably run even stronger in 2006.

"John Barrow (GA-12), expected to face a tight rematch against ex-Rep. Max Burns in a reconfigured GOP-leaning district."


With the new lines (which removes Barrow's home base of Athens and all of those liberal students and professors), the race will lean slightly to Burns, but if the current lines are used I think that Barrow will win again.

"Dennis Moore (KS-3), always in jeopardy due to it being a GOP district."


Yes, hopefully the 4th time will be the charm. With socially liberal GOP candidate Taff going to prison for stealing campaign funds, maybe the RINO wing of the party will support the conservative nominee for once and allow us to finally beat the liberal Moore.

"Ben Chandler (KY-6), sits in a GOP district that he won in a special over a weak GOP candidate."


True, but he'll win again unless we get a top-tier candidate to run.

"Bill Jefferson (LA-2), yes, I'm putting him on there because with the current demographics of New Orleans and a potential criminal conviction, we could make a play for the seat."


Unless we can get a black Republican to run and make the run-off, I don't see how we could possibly win.

"Charlie Melancon (LA-3), sits in a GOP district that he won because of a brutal GOP battle. His GOP opponent, Craig Romero, has unified support."


If Romero has unified support this time, I agree that he has an excellent chance of winning. Melançon is not as socially conservative as he claimed when he ran last time.

"Bennie Thompson (MS-2), a bit iffy, but he faces an ugly primary challenge, and if he emerges, and if our party ponies up the $$, Yvonne Brown could provide a potential upset."


Lots of ifs there, but I agree we should keep this race in our radar screen.

"Tim Bishop (NY-1), Steve Israel (NY-2), Carolyn McCarthy (NY-4), despite erosion of the Long Island GOP, a strong well-funded challenge to any of the 3 could put the seats back in our column where they were prior to the '90s."


If we can get a good candidate to take on Bishop, we can beat him (President Bush carried the NY-01 in 2004). But unfortunately the other two incumbents appear to be safe for now.

"Bob Etheridge (NC-2), sitting in a seat far too GOP for a liberal, but has faced no strong challenges since he upset the incumbent one-term GOPer in '96."


I agree, but we need a candidate.

"Brad Miller (NC-13), a gerrymandered seat for the 'Rats, but one still carried by Dubya. The GOP should find a decent candidate to take him on."


Miller is very liberal, far more so than his constituents, but the district is trending RAT and I don't see any top-tier GOP candidates stepping up.

"Earl Pomeroy (ND-At Large), a perennial target in a state that is heavily GOP but hasn't elected one in 26 years."


This guy we can beat. Hopefully we will have better recruiting than we've had against Senator Conrad.

"Darlene Hooley (OR-5), also a perennial target in a GOP district. Oregon remains overrepresented by Democrats at the federal House level."


Again, we need a candidate. A pro-abortion nobody like last time won't do the trick.

"John Murtha (PA-12), yes, THAT guy. His district may lean 'Rat, but it ain't of the pinko anti-American kind. Surely SOME well-funded GOP challenger can step up and take this disgusting terrorist-loving pig out of his seat. After all, this seat WAS GOP before he won it."


The district was drawn to be heavily RAT, but President Bush got 49% in 2004. Murtha must have pissed off a good number of Democrats in the district, but voting out a powerful Appropriations Committee stalwart will not be easy.

"Tim Holden (PA-17), not a nut like Murtha, but a Republican should be occupying this seat."


If we can't beat him in 2006, we should offer him a chairmanship to switch parties; he's conservative enough to fit in with the GOP caucus.

"John Spratt (SC-5), too liberal for his seat and has escaped strong challengers for a dozen years. No Democrat should still be holding any office in SC but the 6th (and hopefully we'll do something about that in the next 10 years, too). "


As I've written before, we have a good chance of winning here.

"Stephanie Herseth (SD-At Large), she's cute, but she's too liberal for the state and a Republican belongs here (thanks a lot, Bill Janklow). "


So who is going to run?

"Lincoln Davis (TN-4), more like Holden of PA, but this Republican district needs to send one (we're overrepresented with 'Rats due to gerrymandering in TN). Van Hilleary should be challenging him. "


If Van runs, we can get the seat back, if not, forget it.

"Bart Gordon (TN-6), the 'Rats protected him with gerrymandering, but he is a relic in an area that becomes more and more GOP by the day in the suburban counties around Nashville. "


Another district we could pick up if Van Hilleray runs for it. And President Bush got 60% here in 2004, so any top-tier guy would do.

"Chet Edwards (TX-17), a slick liberal 'Rat who needs to be bounced from this heavily GOP district."


This could be the year when we finally get rid of Edwards.

"Jim Matheson (UT-2), a Democrat -- in UTAH ? C'mon, guys ! "


This one should not even be an issue. But we need a candidate.


"Rick Boucher (VA-9), this district should be sending a Republican, and Boucher has been in office nearly a quarter-century, he needs to go."


Again, it all boils down to recruiting. With a well-known candidate, we should win this district in which President Bush got 60% in 2004.

"Rick Larsen (WA-2), should be a district we can strongly challenge in a margin area with a well-funded candidate. It's been 12 years since we snatched back a seat for the GOP in WA state."


This one will be tougher going; we may have to wait until post-2010 redistricting.

"Alan Mollohan (WV-1), WV continues to move more and more towards the GOP, and a growing farm team for the party in the legislature spells trouble for long-term incumbents like Mollohan. State Del. Chris Wakim is challenging him this time, the first viable GOP challenger he has faced since his first election in 1982. "


Mollohan is socially conservative and a good fit for the district, so I'm not holding my breath on this one. Still, it's good that we're not giving him a free ride---it may help us in our race against Byrd.

"Nick Rahall (WV-3), although still historically 'Rat, he has been in for 30 years, and faces the same trouble at the grass roots that Mollohan does. He is likely facing the Cabell County (Huntington) Sheriff and Vietnam War Veteran Kim Wolfe."


Rahall is a bit more liberal than Mollohan, but his district is less conservative. The only way to beat him is to hit him hard on the War on Terror, where Rahall's pro-Muslim sentiments have gotten him to vote the wrong way many times.

"David Obey (WI-7), in the name of Melvin Laird, this district ought be brought back after 37 years of this despicable turd to the GOP."


Not until Obey retires. This guy brings home the bacon.


205 posted on 02/19/2006 7:11:01 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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