Steve Israel represents a districy (NY-2) that was represented from the 1970s-1990s by ultra-liberal Thomas "Not that there's anything wrong with it!" Downey. Lots of union members and Jewish Americans in that district make it lean Democratic. True, Lazio held it back in the mid-90s, but that was more of a fluke than anything else.
Tim Bishop (NY-1) would be the most vulnerable were we to get a strong candidate with good financial backing. The limo liberals in the Hamptons vote in Manhattan, and the "hired help" in Riverhead don't vote at all. Granted, this was the district of conservative Democrat Otis Pike back in the 1960s, but otherwise should be a GOP district. While it is true that Brookhaven Town (largest town in the district) is now controlled by the Dems, that is due more to local issues than any demographic changes.
In Washington (from where I am typing) Larsen and Inslee would be vulnerable had the State Senate in Washington (under Republican control from 2000-2002) hadn't been rolled over by Gary Locke in the redistricting process. This effectively split Snohomish County, which is the fastest growing county in the state, and one which is finally turning Republican (lots of middle to high income families with kids from out of state). If Snohomish had been combined with Skagit into a single district, it would be at least 55% GOP, with the numbers climbing every year.
Instead, we have a situation where the GOP vote in north Snohomish and Skagit are outvoted by the aging Hippies in Whatcom County/Bellingham City, allowing Larsen to hold the seat. Likewise, Inslee gets enough votes from the liberals in North King County, Bainbridge Island, and Everett to negate the Republican votes in southern and central Snohomish.
There's no denying that the 'Rats have benefitted from the costly mistakes of the GOP on L.I. Had Felix Grucci not flamed out in his reelection, he'd still be holding the 1st. The embarrassment of the race in '00 to get a decent successor to Lazio, and the subsequent multi-candidate split in the general enabled Israel's rise. The GOP's problem with the 4th and not fully-funding any challenger to McCarthy is outrageous. If Peter King retires, I worry the GOP similarly screws up with getting a successor.
I also share your frustration with Washington state. What happened to that tidal-wave of sanity that gripped the state in '94 ?
What Clemenza wrote is correct, but I would add that Lazio's CD wasn't as Democrat as Israel's current CD; the incumbency-protection plan adopted by the NY legislature made Israel's CD more Republican and made the 1st (then Grucci, now Bishop) and 3rd (King) CDs more Republican.