Top Ten Most Endangered House Incumbents

Teagan Goddard's Political Wire ^ | February 16, 2006 | Stuart Rothenberg

[Clintonfatigued]

Writing in Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg gives us his top ten list of most endangered House incumbents. All but one are Republicans.

Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT) Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN) Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL) Rep. Melissa Bean (D-IL)

He says it was a tough list to compile. "Many of the incumbents on this list have proven their political mettle before, and in normal circumstances, they wouldn’t be in all that much trouble. Others find themselves in the sort of hot water that should automatically sink them, but because of unique circumstances, they might somehow survive."

[Torie]

Oh geez, I forgot Burns was running. :( Yet another senior moment, so I agree with your placement.

[fieldmarshaldj]

OpenSecrets confirms that Burns is financially competitive with Barrow. If I were Barrow, I would be very uncomfortable (as a White guy) holding a seat that Black without attracting a credible Black primary challenger (and as we all know, in districts with those demographics, Black voters are clearly going to be a considerable majority of Dem primary voters).

[NeoCaveman]

I'd add OH-13 to the watch list.

Sherrod Brown is retiring and while this seat has a strong Democrat lean, the GOP is running the mayor of Lorain which is a Democrat stronghold.

[Torie]

Yep, and DC political lists a lot of presumably black Dem opponents for Burns (someone with the first name of "Regina" is presumably black no?). Whether they are real, or potential, and whether they have financial resources, I don't know.

[AntiGuv]

Souder has been floating on the edges of my radar screen because of those fundraising numbers. But that is about a 65% Bush district that Souder won with 69% in 2004 (against a nonentity, to be sure). So, although I give great deference to the money figures, and by that have routinely over the years predicted competitive races long before anyone else is talking about them, I just don't see how IN-03 becomes at all competitive.

For the record, here is my full GOP list in one pop:

Lean Democratic

1 (IA-01) Nussle*
2 (OH-18) Ney
3 (CO-07) Beauprez*
4 (PA-06) Gerlach
5 (TX-22) DeLay

Toss Up

6 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
7 (NM-01) Wilson
8 (IN-08) Hostettler
9 (IN-09) Sodrel
10 (WI-08) Green*
11 (WA-08) Reichert
12 (CT-04) Shays

Lean Republican

13 (MN-06) Kennedy*
14 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
15 (IL-06) Hyde*
16 (CT-02) Simmons
17 (FL-22) Shaw
18 (OH-15) Pryce
19 (CA-50) Cunningham*
20 (KY-04) Davis
21 (NC-11) Taylor
22 (CA-11) Pombo
23 (FL-09) Bilirakis*

Likely Republican

24 (OH-01) Chabot
25 (CO-04) Musgrave
26 (NC-08) Hayes
27 (PA-07) Weldon
28 (FL-13) Harris*
29 (IN-02) Chocola
30 (AZ-01) Renzi
31 (PA-10) Sherwood
32 (NY-20) Sweeney
33 (CT-05) Johnson
34 (KY-03) Northup
35 (CA-26) Dreier
36 (FL-08) Keller
37 (NV-03) Porter
38 (KY-02) Lewis
39 (MT-AL) Rehberg
40 (NY-29) Kuhl
41 (NH-02) Bass
42 (NY-19) Kelly
43 (WY-AL) Cubin

Watch List

44 (NY-25) Walsh
45 (MN-01) Gutknecht
46 (NJ-07) Ferguson
47 (WV-02) Capito
48 (NH-01) Bradley
49 (IA-02) Leach
50 (NV-02) Gibbons*
51 (MN-02) Kline
52 (VA-02) Drake
53 (OH-02) Schmidt
54 (LA-07) Boustany
55 (CA-45) Bono
56 (FL-16) Foley

A number of the ones now in Likely were ones I flagged months ago on the Watch List due to fundraising by challengers, and that have no been noted on the various pundit lists. Several of the ones now on the Watch List are there for that reason, combined with the partisan makeup of the various districts.

IN-03 just doesn't make the cut, even though it's way in the back of my mind.

[fieldmarshaldj]

As I observed above, I'd add Alan Mollohan (WV-1) to the endangered list. He currently trails his GOP challenger with cash-on-hand (and his opponent isn't a gadfly, but a sitting member of the legislature, which was a successful route of ascension for Shelley Moore Capito).

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?cycle=2006&id=WV01

[Owen]

This is all pretty good analysis, but I suggest another level of depth is called for.

There is no reason for us to believe the RNC will send out money efficiently. FR should identify those GOP candidates with a solid chance to win AND who are marginally funded.

It is to them that money and volunteer efforts should be sent, regardless of where the FR member lives.

BTW, given the analysis as it stands, we need two things. 1) the above requested list of where money and volunteerism yields the biggest bang for the buck and 2) some probability curves for overall House results in November.

[fieldmarshaldj]

The district, under the old lines, was drawn to elect the son of the then-Senate Majority Leader Charles Walker, who is Black (and currently serving a stint in a Georgia prison for corruption). I'd have to think Black Democrats view the seat as theirs to take. I would say all those challengers listed on the DC political report are Black.

[AntiGuv]

I considered adding OH-13 when I did a major revision of my lists a couple weeks ago, but I decided to wait until the race took shape. I haven't had time to look at it since the OH filing deadline and see what's up there. The OH-13 district was 55.23% Kerry in 2004 which certainly isn't impossible for the GOP in an ordinary year with the right candidate, but is certainly daunting.

However, in a year that looks to favor Dems come November, and moreover in which Ohio is caught up in a major GOP scandal with a profoundly unpopular GOP governor and dismal approval ratings for the GOP president, I don't see much justification to expect a competitive race there.

If in the next couple weeks the buzz picks up for the prospective GOP nominee, and especially if viable fundraising gets reported, then I'll move OH-13 on the list.

To be very clear, just because a race isn't on my Watch List doesn't mean I'm not watching it. LOL The Watch List is for races where I think there's a good argument to be made that they are or will become competitive, but that if I had to rate where they stand 'if the election were today' I would rate them as Safe for one or the other party.

It's all subjective of course, but hey, it's my list!

[fieldmarshaldj]

I'm just a bit worried, because those boys need to get on the ball. It's one thing with Jim Leach to win on a dime or two, but our other fellas need to have a wee bit more, just to play it safe. BTW, it's not impossible for the Souder seat to go 'Rat, Indiana was notoriously overrepresented by Democrats in the '80s and '90s, and the seat was held by Jill Long after Dan Coats vacated it for the Senate.

[Torie]

How so very, very diplomatic of you. OH-13 ain't happening for the Pubbies. :)

[Torie]

The RNC in the past has poured lots of bucks into the Hostettler district to bail him out of his impecunious ways. But with so many leaks to plug in the dam in 2006, the $$$$$ for Hostettler might not be there in the way he was used to, particularly since some of recent votes have been off team Bush.

[deport]

Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX). The lamestream media has unfairly but successfully turned DeLay into a symbol of all that is wrong with politics. Maybe they're exaggerating his vulnerability at home. He'd comfortably win a two-man race, but with a former GOP Congressman running as an Independent, the conservative vote could be split, which could enable the Democrat to win with a minority.

---

TX 22nd.... Tom DeLay

If Stockman does get on the ballot then that would make the race, assuming DeLay wins the GOP primary, a race between three people who were Representatives at one time or the other.... [DeLay the current incumbent, Lampson who beat Stockman in the old 9th in '96, and Stockman who defeated Jack Brooks in the old 9th during the '94 House cleaning].

[Uncle Jaque]

Re your #69 -

"...how much money does Collins have in the bank right now?"

Senator Susan Collins (I assume that's who your are referring to) is not up for re-election this year.

That would be RINO Olympia Snowe, who the last time I checked had over $2 million in her war chest and is expected to have over $5 mil before the election.

She is a virtual shoe-in, and is very popular in Maine, which overwhelmingly went for Kerry in the last Presidential.

Only one contender - C. Tamboia - with little money, no political experience, and no chance has offered to oppose her in a primary (and it is unlikely that he will even collect enough signatures to get on the ballot) and as best I know the Dems have not yet nominated a Candidate for her seat.

If they do, it will likely be that they will only be a "token" adversary.

Said Dem contender would only have the ghost of a chance of prevailing if our esteemed Q of I keels over dead an hour after the polls close allowing Dem Gov. Baldacci to appoint a commie successor... which is highly unlikely, as Sen. Snowe is as healthy as a horse.

Come to think of it.... (awww; never mind...).

It is generally understood among Conservative circles here in Maine that not one Republican needs to vote for the "Queen of Infanticide" in order for her to maintain her incumbancy for life.

Any yet a lot of (most, actually) 'Pubbies will.

I fully expect her to beat KKK Byrd's record for oldest surviving Senator when she's about 110 and being wheeled into the Senate Chamber in a gurney hooked up to a respirator.

They may end up burying her underneath the podium after she finally quits championing and voting for abortion and taxes and assumes room temprature.

---

As an aside, 'Pubbies seem to have a knack for consistantly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The way that our President is facilitating the Mexican takeover of our Southwest and lucrative drug trade while ceding port insecurity over to the Chicoms and Wahabbi Arabs, plus the Abramov scandals and total lack of leadership and competence demonstrated by clueless waste-of-space political rumpswabs like M. Scherkoff and his fellow hacks during the Katrina debacle, we very well may let the congressional majority slip back into the claws of the commiocrats by next December.


Really makes me want to write out a check to the GOP...

{B^{P~

[LdSentinal]

Wouldn't have the Democrats recruited better challengers than those they have now to beat Ney? Perhaps you're assuming that Ney would be indicted to put OH-18 into leading Dem category.

[LdSentinal]

There was no "Katrina debacle."

[AntiGuv]

There are two races where for now I'm ignoring strong fundraising on the part of challengers. One is Souder (IN-03) and the other is Democrat Carolyn Maloney's NY-14 district. I just think the incumbent-favoring partisan advantage of each district is too overwhelming for the challenges to be viable based on fundraising alone, and I've not seen further reason to expect competitive races in either.

[DoNotDivide]

Anyone that voted for CAFTA should be in dire straits.

[Torie]

We were speaking about Mac Collins of Georgia (you know the place nearer to where the gators are (I think Georgia has some gators itself actually down in that swamp near Florida but I could be wrong), than Maine is)). This thread is about House races. Predicting senate races is not much fun. There are simply too many variables in high profile races that are up in the air, and one needs to watch the debates close to election time, to get a handle of the tough calls, along of course with the polls.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I wouldn't be so quick to write it off... at least until we see who emerges from what may be a VERY ugly Democrat primary. We do have a top-tier candidate with Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin. If the 'Rats put up someone like Capri Cafaro (who is rather flaky and is district-shopping), this becomes toss-up.