Wouldn't have the Democrats recruited better challengers than those they have now to beat Ney? Perhaps you're assuming that Ney would be indicted to put OH-18 into leading Dem category.
Yes, I am assuming that Ney will be indicted or that his situation will otherwise get worse in terms of the scandal, because that appears the most likely development at this time. If the Abramoff tempest blows over with Ney exonerated then I'll have no problem moving the race back down.
All signs in the Abramoff filings are pointing toward prospective indictments, and Ney is the #1 target for indictment. My only pause is that this is ordinarily a strong GOP district (57% Bush) but the inherent partisan lean is getting undermined by far too many factors to ignore (Ney's role in the Abramoff scandal; the toxic environment for the OH GOP; the plunging approval ratings for Bush; and a conservative Dem challenger who'll be fully funded).
PS. When I mention the Bush approval ratings I mean specific to Ohio.
The Democrats have no bench in that district. Joe Sulzer is what passes for a good challenger.