Yes, I am assuming that Ney will be indicted or that his situation will otherwise get worse in terms of the scandal, because that appears the most likely development at this time. If the Abramoff tempest blows over with Ney exonerated then I'll have no problem moving the race back down.
All signs in the Abramoff filings are pointing toward prospective indictments, and Ney is the #1 target for indictment. My only pause is that this is ordinarily a strong GOP district (57% Bush) but the inherent partisan lean is getting undermined by far too many factors to ignore (Ney's role in the Abramoff scandal; the toxic environment for the OH GOP; the plunging approval ratings for Bush; and a conservative Dem challenger who'll be fully funded).
I don't buy those "plunging" approval ratings for Bush. I think the polls are clearly overpolling anti-Bush partisans by at least 10%. The media pushes those disingenuous polls for the sole purpose of making them come true, it's disgusting. My take is that he is at or around 50% nationwide (varying from state to state, of course), not the ludicrous 40%.