Souder has been floating on the edges of my radar screen because of those fundraising numbers. But that is about a 65% Bush district that Souder won with 69% in 2004 (against a nonentity, to be sure). So, although I give great deference to the money figures, and by that have routinely over the years predicted competitive races long before anyone else is talking about them, I just don't see how IN-03 becomes at all competitive.
For the record, here is my full GOP list in one pop:
Lean Democratic
1 (IA-01) Nussle*
2 (OH-18) Ney
3 (CO-07) Beauprez*
4 (PA-06) Gerlach
5 (TX-22) DeLay
Toss Up
6 (AZ-08) Kolbe*
7 (NM-01) Wilson
8 (IN-08) Hostettler
9 (IN-09) Sodrel
10 (WI-08) Green*
11 (WA-08) Reichert
12 (CT-04) Shays
Lean Republican
13 (MN-06) Kennedy*
14 (PA-08) Fitzpatrick
15 (IL-06) Hyde*
16 (CT-02) Simmons
17 (FL-22) Shaw
18 (OH-15) Pryce
19 (CA-50) Cunningham*
20 (KY-04) Davis
21 (NC-11) Taylor
22 (CA-11) Pombo
23 (FL-09) Bilirakis*
Likely Republican
24 (OH-01) Chabot
25 (CO-04) Musgrave
26 (NC-08) Hayes
27 (PA-07) Weldon
28 (FL-13) Harris*
29 (IN-02) Chocola
30 (AZ-01) Renzi
31 (PA-10) Sherwood
32 (NY-20) Sweeney
33 (CT-05) Johnson
34 (KY-03) Northup
35 (CA-26) Dreier
36 (FL-08) Keller
37 (NV-03) Porter
38 (KY-02) Lewis
39 (MT-AL) Rehberg
40 (NY-29) Kuhl
41 (NH-02) Bass
42 (NY-19) Kelly
43 (WY-AL) Cubin
Watch List
44 (NY-25) Walsh
45 (MN-01) Gutknecht
46 (NJ-07) Ferguson
47 (WV-02) Capito
48 (NH-01) Bradley
49 (IA-02) Leach
50 (NV-02) Gibbons*
51 (MN-02) Kline
52 (VA-02) Drake
53 (OH-02) Schmidt
54 (LA-07) Boustany
55 (CA-45) Bono
56 (FL-16) Foley
A number of the ones now in Likely were ones I flagged months ago on the Watch List due to fundraising by challengers, and that have no been noted on the various pundit lists. Several of the ones now on the Watch List are there for that reason, combined with the partisan makeup of the various districts.
IN-03 just doesn't make the cut, even though it's way in the back of my mind.
I'm just a bit worried, because those boys need to get on the ball. It's one thing with Jim Leach to win on a dime or two, but our other fellas need to have a wee bit more, just to play it safe. BTW, it's not impossible for the Souder seat to go 'Rat, Indiana was notoriously overrepresented by Democrats in the '80s and '90s, and the seat was held by Jill Long after Dan Coats vacated it for the Senate.
Wouldn't have the Democrats recruited better challengers than those they have now to beat Ney? Perhaps you're assuming that Ney would be indicted to put OH-18 into leading Dem category.