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'Assad may attack if pressure escalates'
Jerusalem Post ^ | 2/9/2006 | YAAKOV KATZ

Posted on 02/10/2006 10:58:54 AM PST by Rutles4Ever

If Syrian President Bashar Assad continues to feel threatened by the United States and the rest of the international community, he may be pushed into a corner and decide to fire missiles at Israel, senior IDF officers from Northern Command warned this week.

According to a report released late last year by the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Syria had an estimated 45 missile launchers and had probably assembled a few Scud D rockets with a range of nearly 700 kilometers - a major threat to Israel because they can be armed with chemical warheads. Last June, Israeli military sources confirmed that Syria had test-fired three Scud missiles, despite Damascus's denials.

While Israel's border with Syria has been quiet since 1973, the military's working assumption is that Israel's next war will be on the northern front against Syria and Lebanon.

Israel, the IDF officers said, did not foresee a war with Syria in the near future and had not noticed any changes in Syrian military deployment along the northern border. But Assad's handling of diplomatic affairs has the IDF worried.

Syria has been facing numerous pressures in recent months, including the UN investigation into the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri that implicated Syrian Intelligence, and the criticism voiced against the regime by former top Syrian officials.

"We are watching and following Syria very closely, since the missile possibility exists," a senior officer told The Jerusalem Post. "Assad might decide to copy Saddam Hussein and attack Israel if the pressure on him escalates." Saddam fired missiles at Israel during the Gulf War in 1991.

For now, the officer said, the IDF did not see a reason to change its military deployment along the Syrian border. "We haven't changed anything," the officer said. "But we are staying alert and using our intelligence services to stay on top of anything that might happen in Syria that could have an impact on Israel."

While the Syrian border is quiet, Damascus has been behind attacks against Israel carried out by its proxy - Hizbullah - on Israeli military outposts in the North. According to intelligence assessments, the Hizbullah attack on an IDF position in the northern village of Ghajar in November was per Damascus's request. The IDF has put its forces along the Lebanese border on heightened alert to offset any attempts by Hizbullah to stir up tensions.

In December, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz publicly declared, "Syrian attempts to divert attention away from the country may result in heightened Hizbullah activity in the North."

"Assad is trying to relieve the pressure," one officer said this week. "Hizbullah carries out the attack, steals the world's attention, and the pressure is relieved."

Analysts cast doubt on the possibility that Assad would launch a missile strike against Israel, saying that if he did, it would definitely serve a death blow to his regime.

"Getting into a shooting match with Israel would not help his situation," said Dr. Mark Heller, a senior research associate at the Jaffee Center.

Yiftah Shapir, a former IDF Intelligence officer and a senior researcher at the Jaffee Center, backed up Heller and claimed that while Syria was armed with Scud missiles, they were not meant to be used in an attack on Israel but to serve as a deterrent to an Israeli attack and to balance the military powers in the region.

"No one can accurately predict what Assad has in his head and what he will do," Shapir said. "Technically, he has the power to launch missiles if he wants to, but the possibility is slim."

But if Assad were to make such a "mistake," Shapir said, "he knows Israel's capabilities, and if a Scud falls here, Israel will respond fiercely."


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: assad; iran; israel; middleeast; missiles; syria; terror; wot
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To: Paul Ross
Paul,

See if Glenn Beck has a post of this on his website, or you may have to join his 24/7 thing like all of them have now to hear the replay.

I have heard about the Ambassador here on the Freep, but don't take my word for it, I may have missed something in the translation from Mr. Beck, but I think I am pretty accurate.

61 posted on 02/10/2006 2:33:11 PM PST by taildragger (They call themselves Liberal Democrats, I call them Collaborators.)
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To: SJackson
Good afternoon (EST).

If Syrian President Bashar Assad continues to feel threatened by the United States and the rest of the international community, he may be pushed into a corner and decide to fire missiles at Israel, senior IDF officers from Northern Command warned this week.

No such luck.

5.56mm

62 posted on 02/10/2006 2:45:45 PM PST by M Kehoe
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To: Semper Paratus
Is the Israeli security fence finished yet? If not, how long before completion?
63 posted on 02/10/2006 2:55:47 PM PST by Blue State Insurgent (Shatter the CIA into a thousand pieces and scatter the remnants to the wind. Avenge JFK.)
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To: taildragger
Just beginning to check out the situation, and I am going to more direct resources. This one lead looks interesting:

[ Note the Danish priorities! All the more inimical to Syria and Iran's interests! ]

Denmark.dk

Denmark.dk
The Official window

Denmark on United Nations Security Council

21 December 2004
Denmark on United Nations Security Council

Denmark’s ambassador to the United Nations, Ellen Løj, talks about Denmarks plans for the coming membership on the United Nation’s Security Council, and how Denmark will try to make a difference

When Denmark becomes a member of the United Nations Security Council on 1 January, it is with the stated intention of trying to make a difference within four important areas: the war on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction; conflict resolution; the problems of Africa; and reform of the UN system.

Membership in the Security Council means there will be attention paid to Denmark's positions on and responsibility towards questions of life and death at the world's hot spots.

The goal is that over the next two years we can make progress in the areas we've made a priority, and that the Security Council has the responsibility to solve conflicts and create peace and security in the world."

"The hope is that Danish political strategy regarding these areas of concern will become UN political strategy, but, of course, it's a big order to fill in two years," Denmark's ambassador to the UN, Ellen Løj said to Ritzau news bureau.

Denmark joins the Security Council at a time when the UN and the UN's general secretary, Kofi Annan, are under increasing pressure because of fraud in connection with the now defunct oil-for-peace program in Iraq.

It is also a time when the UN is planning to reform itself so the world organisation continues to be a relevant and modern player on the international scene in light of the threat from terrorism, a long list of armed conflicts, hiv/aids and poverty.

According to Løj, Denmark's priorities for work in the Security Council are "a logical consequence of Danish evolutionary foreign policy."

"The war on terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destructions are an essential priority the way the world looks today, and we on the Security Council must be active in finding a solution," said Løj.

Part of the reason 40% of all conflicts flare up again is that not enough is done to create a lasting peace once the conflict falls out of the public view after a political solution.

  EXTERNAL LINKS
Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs

"We chose Africa out of recognition that a large number of the conflicts that are dealt with by the Security Council are in Africa. Because of our involvement in Africa's development, it is important that we place special emphasis on solving the conflicts in Africa," said Løj.

Denmarks place in reform at the UN

Reform of the UN focuses on making work in the Security Council more effective, which will also contribute to increasing respect for the Council's work.

"It's not just about openness regarding what takes place, but also the methods by which the Council's works are linked to respect for the international justice system," said Løj, who emphasised that Denmark's choice of priorities has special relevance because of eight ongoing conflicts: Sudan, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Somalia, northern Uganda, Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo and the middle east.

"It doesn't mean that we should not take part in resolving other conflicts. In principle, all conflicts have equal importance, and members of the Security Council have the obligation to represent all members of the UN. On the other hand, we've determined that some conflicts have greater importance to Danish foreign policy than others.

Among these conflicts is the war in Iraq. Even though there has been agreement in the Security Council on Iraq since May 2003, it is still a conflict that has split the world, created a scar on transatlantic cooperation and plagued Danish internal politics.

But Løj denies that Denmark's support for the US-led invasion of Iraq will have negative consequences for Denmark's possibility of gaining confidence on the Security Council.

"Danish foreign policy is well known, also at the UN. My experience has been that there is respect for a country that has a position--whether one agrees with that position or not, you then have something to work with. I haven't experienced disrespect with regards to our position-we dare to take a position and we do take a position," said Løj.

Denmark's position between the UN, the EU, and Scandinavia

In answer to the question on how Denmark will position itself while being an allie of the US and member of the European Union, and at the same time a Nordic land with a long tradition for far-sighted development cooperation with a long list of poorer countries, said Løj:

"As a member of the Security Council, one has a duty to become involved with peace and security problems around the world, in spite of national priorities. But the view one takes on individual conflicts is certainly influenced by ones national view."

Denmark is bound by treaties as a member of the European Union's common security and foreign policy bound to remain within the framework of EU policy.

"But it is clear that as a member of the Security Council, one often must deal with real questions and situations regarding a conflict which the EU hasn't taken a position on. Take Sudan and The Democratic Republic of Congo. The EU has a clear policy, but the situation is changing all the time," said Løj, who, on Denmark's behalf, will sit at the table when the Security Council sets a mandate for a peace-keeping force in Sudan, when and if the parties agree on peace. But in the last case, it is Denmark's own responsibility to form a foreign policy based on as much information as possible.

"We can't avoid that responsibility," said Løj, who emphasises that "relations with other countries and regions are, for the most part, a question of both listening and negotiating."

/ritzau/

64 posted on 02/10/2006 3:30:56 PM PST by Paul Ross (Hitting bullets with bullets successfully for 35 years!)
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To: taildragger
This also ties together...

17/01/2006
Security Council
SC/8609

Department of Public Information • News and Media Division • New York

SECURITY COUNCIL PRESS STATEMENT ON WORK OF COMMISSION INVESTIGATING

KILLING OF FORMER LEBANESE PRIME MINISTER HARIRI

(Delayed in transmission.)

The following statement to the press was delivered on 13 January by Security Council President Augustine P. Mahiga (United Republic of Tanzania):

The members of the Security Council welcome the Secretary-General's decision to appoint Mr. Serge Brammertz as the Commissioner of the United Nations International Independent Investigation Commission into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

They commend his predecessor, Mr. Detlev Mehlis, for his outstanding work as the head of the Commission.

The members of the Security Council also took note with satisfaction of the Secretary-GeneralÂ’s decision to dispatch rapidly a mission to Lebanon in order to fully implement resolution 1644.

They reiterate their full support for the work of the Commission and its mandate to assist the Lebanese authorities to bring the perpetrators of this crime to justice.

They reaffirm the need for all parties concerned to cooperate fully and unconditionally with the Commission, in accordance with resolutions 1595, 1636 and 1644.

* *** *


For information media • not an official record

65 posted on 02/10/2006 3:34:53 PM PST by Paul Ross (Hitting bullets with bullets successfully for 35 years!)
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To: taildragger
If the Danish Ambassador is going to be the President of the United Nations Security Council in March,...he, unfortunately, will hold it for only one month. Note Rule 18.
66 posted on 02/10/2006 3:40:49 PM PST by Paul Ross (Hitting bullets with bullets successfully for 35 years!)
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To: Rutles4Ever

Ohfercryinoutloud...........let 'em attack Israel and see JUST how long they exist as a country.

The Israeli military does NOT f**k around. God bless 'em.


67 posted on 02/10/2006 3:42:42 PM PST by RightOnline
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To: My2Cents

No. Jerusalem Post is very reliable.


68 posted on 02/10/2006 4:18:21 PM PST by Paul_Denton (Every single troll is now an enemy of the Republic!)
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To: sono

Hehe I was thinking the same thought. Syria got its ass kicked FOUR TIMES by the IDF since 1948. As Clint Eastwood also said "feelin lucky? Well do ya PUNK!?"


69 posted on 02/10/2006 4:21:32 PM PST by Paul_Denton (Every single troll is now an enemy of the Republic!)
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To: Paul_Denton

I was joking, but the suggestion appears so fanciful, even if reliable, that it seems to veer into "DEBKA terrority."


70 posted on 02/10/2006 4:31:30 PM PST by My2Cents (In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. -- George Orwell)
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To: Rutles4Ever
I don't really see how getting his Hizbollah clients (ex-clients is more like it) to shoot missiles at Israel is going to relieve any pressure from anyone. Should that happen it will be because the Iranians want it to, not Assad.

Assad declaring a shooting war on Israeli territory is an open invitation to the 4th Infantry division to set their tents up in his palace grounds. Ain't gonna happen.

71 posted on 02/10/2006 4:38:49 PM PST by Billthedrill
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To: dmz

--- Nah, Syria will attack the only country it has a chance to defeat.

France.

Provided Damascus has a fax machine to send the surrender terms to France.---

I disagree - Asswad would never attack the country that's most likely to offer him asylum after he's ousted (as France has aleady done with the likes of Khomeini and Duvalier).


72 posted on 02/10/2006 4:42:33 PM PST by rfp1234 (I've had it up to my keyster with these leaks!!! - - - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Paul Ross
Paul,

Thank you for your research. I have found a ton of info on websites. I will post the links later, (family time) In brief, it looks like Demark is up for a permanent seat on the the Security Council, this is what the hub bub may be about since they were pro-USA on Iraq and are also involved in a Counter-Terrorism Committee as well!

I'll post links later.....

73 posted on 02/10/2006 4:55:09 PM PST by taildragger (They call themselves Liberal Democrats, I call them Collaborators.)
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To: Coop

I knew that was you even before I checked the name! LOL


74 posted on 02/10/2006 4:59:10 PM PST by Straight Vermonter (John 6: 31-69)
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To: El Gato

" Why then is Putin hosting the Chief Terrorist of Hamas?"

Cuz the Chechnyan Head Terrorist couldn't make it?


75 posted on 02/10/2006 5:08:55 PM PST by Let's Roll ( "Congressmen who ... undermine the military ... should be arrested, exiled or hanged" - A. Lincoln)
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To: redgolum

Daniel Ortega is expected to win the election in Nicaragua, and Yushenko is expected to lose his parlment in the Ukraine, subjecting Ukraine to Russian rule again.


76 posted on 02/10/2006 8:51:01 PM PST by Thunder90
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To: veronica

The Arabs also always lose wars to the US.


77 posted on 02/10/2006 8:52:46 PM PST by Thunder90
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To: El Gato

Pootie poot is a communist, and communists will do stuff like that.


78 posted on 02/10/2006 8:53:31 PM PST by Thunder90
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To: Thunder90
Pootie poot is a communist, and communists will do stuff like that.

While that may be, in this case I think he's more of an anti Semitic Russian nationalist. If the Muslims are killing Russians, then are terrorists, if they are killing Jews, especially Israeli Jews, why they're Freedom Fighters, at least according to Putin.

79 posted on 02/10/2006 9:43:54 PM PST by El Gato
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To: taildragger
All in about a month when a Danish Ambassador who be be elevated to the head of the Security Council!

I checked the UN Security Council website. The Danes are not in line to be the head of the Security Council until June. This month it's the US. :). Check the link for this year's lineup, as well as a full list of Security Council membership, and when each member's term expires. (US, Russia, UK, France, China are permanent members, with Veto power)

Because of that Veto, don't expect much of the UN SC on this issue. And don't let taking it to them be used to avoid taking necessary action, since they aren't likely to do so.

80 posted on 02/10/2006 9:52:11 PM PST by El Gato
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