Will Israel Strike Iran?

Newsweek ^ | Feb. 13, 2006 issue | Kevin Peraino and John Barry

[West Coast Conservative]

As scary as the idea may sound, the Israelis may not be bluffing. Their defense experts display no doubt whatsoever that Israel's Air Force can cripple Iran's nuclear program if necessary. The trick, they say, is to go after the system's weak spots. "You need to identify the bottlenecks," says a senior Israeli military source, asking not to be named for security reasons. "There are not very many. If you take them out, then you really undermine the project." Shlomo Brom, a former Israeli armed forces chief of strategic planning, says the destruction of two or three key facilities would probably suffice. He singles out the Natanz uranium-enrichment complex and the conversion plant at Esfahan as critical.

It wouldn't be as easy as it sounds. Tehran, taking obvious lessons from Israel's successful 1981 bombing of Saddam Hussein's reactor at Osirak, has done its best to shield potential targets like Natanz. "They are dispersed, underground, hardened," says the senior Israeli military source. U.S. analysts say each facility would require multiple hits before serious damage was done. Still, the Israelis—who have an undeclared nuclear arsenal of their own, and refuse international inspections or oversight—insist they have all the firepower they need: more than 100 U.S.-made BLU-109 "bunker buster" earth-penetrating bombs. "I think they could do the job," says the senior Israeli source.

Logistics is a bigger hurdle. Each separate target would require a small fleet of aircraft. Israel's F-15s and F-16s would need advance escorts of "electronic countermeasures" aircraft to jam Iran's air-defense radars, and every one of those planes would need an entourage of fighter aircraft. At short range, Tehran's newly upgraded MiG-29 interceptors are a match for just about anything in the air. "To get there and bomb the facilities, that's the easy part," says Brom.

[Paul_Denton]

MiG-29s are also gas-guzzlers. By the time the mullahs launched their MiG-29s, the Israelis will already be in striking distance for some of their weapons like the Popeye cruise missile or the nuclear-tipped Harpoon they are belived to have.

[MaDeuce]

Is it me or does anyone else think that being a foreign dignitary in Iran is a BAD idea these days. I figure that the embassy staffs are just itching to get the heck out of "Dodge" before something happens.

It would be nice to see a 1000+ bomber raid with B52s, B1s, B2s, etc... kinda like the old days when B17, B25, Lancaster's and such went off over Germany.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

With Iran's air defense you need stealth aircraft (USA). Also, F-15's can deliver bunker busters, but you would need a lot of them. Israel would need to provide tactical air protection for the bombers.
I think it will be the US, not Israel.

[gotribe]

The question is what then.>The question is what then.

The answer is we just lob missles and bombers at them for the next 2-3 years until nothing is left of any military or government installation. Firestorms for them, zero casualties for us.

[nopardons]

bttt

[Paul_Denton]

The US has had linear geometry implosion for years but not for the munroe effect (linear implosion cannot do it to my knwledge). Linear implosion is designed to make the warheard diameter small enough to fit inside 155mm artillery shells.

[TheSpottedOwl]

Oh sure they will. With Olmert running the show, it's a certainty that Israel will finally take measures to protect herself. /sarc

It is hard not to be pessimistic given the latest news : (

[Paul_Denton]

Agree 100%

[Paul_Denton]

With Israel's very existance at stake, they will do what is necessary.

[Paul_Denton]

Economic damage is a prce worth paying to prevent that nutcase from vaporizing Israel.

[TheSpottedOwl]

The US trained Iranian pilots back in the '70's. Pathetic isn't it?

[hinckley buzzard]

Experts say, Israel couldn't get the job done alone. Maybe Israel with help from the US.

I remember vividly in 1967 when the "experts" said Israel, surrounded by arab armies, was history.

The bottleneck theory makes eminent sense-- since I posted a comment on it several weeks ago... maybe that makes ME an expert!(/sarc)

[SmithL]

...the MSM is itching for another war to cover and critcize.

[US_MilitaryRules]

I hope so!

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

I bet the Israeli intelligence on the capabilities of Iranian pilots is quite thorough

[Coleus]

With Israel's very existence at stake, they will do what is necessary. >>

I'm not too sure, with the billions we give to Israel every year, the USA has a lot to say.

[Rocky Mountain High]

Or US aircraft painted to look like IAF. Of course, in today's world that would stay secret for all of about 10 minutes.

[grey_whiskers]

The US trained Iranian pilots back in the '70's. Pathetic isn't it?

Those pilots--and their planes--would now be how old?

[dk/coro]

IMO, it is only a question of time. Not if, but when.

I suspect we will be forced to do the diplomatic soft shoe for a credible amount of time.

Then, using whatever pretext necessary, Iran will be struck -- repeatedly and with awesome intensity...to give the rugheads a definitive signal that there is in fact a limit to their reckless behavior on the world stage.

We are, indeed, in a protracted religious/cultural war with Islam for the survival of Western Democracy. Make no mistake about that!

[billorites]

Be kinda cool if Denmark led the attack, huh?