Will Israel Strike Iran?

Newsweek ^ | Feb. 13, 2006 issue | Kevin Peraino and John Barry

[West Coast Conservative]

As scary as the idea may sound, the Israelis may not be bluffing. Their defense experts display no doubt whatsoever that Israel's Air Force can cripple Iran's nuclear program if necessary. The trick, they say, is to go after the system's weak spots. "You need to identify the bottlenecks," says a senior Israeli military source, asking not to be named for security reasons. "There are not very many. If you take them out, then you really undermine the project." Shlomo Brom, a former Israeli armed forces chief of strategic planning, says the destruction of two or three key facilities would probably suffice. He singles out the Natanz uranium-enrichment complex and the conversion plant at Esfahan as critical.

It wouldn't be as easy as it sounds. Tehran, taking obvious lessons from Israel's successful 1981 bombing of Saddam Hussein's reactor at Osirak, has done its best to shield potential targets like Natanz. "They are dispersed, underground, hardened," says the senior Israeli military source. U.S. analysts say each facility would require multiple hits before serious damage was done. Still, the Israelis—who have an undeclared nuclear arsenal of their own, and refuse international inspections or oversight—insist they have all the firepower they need: more than 100 U.S.-made BLU-109 "bunker buster" earth-penetrating bombs. "I think they could do the job," says the senior Israeli source.

Logistics is a bigger hurdle. Each separate target would require a small fleet of aircraft. Israel's F-15s and F-16s would need advance escorts of "electronic countermeasures" aircraft to jam Iran's air-defense radars, and every one of those planes would need an entourage of fighter aircraft. At short range, Tehran's newly upgraded MiG-29 interceptors are a match for just about anything in the air. "To get there and bomb the facilities, that's the easy part," says Brom.

[grey_whiskers]

At short range, Tehran's newly upgraded MiG-29 interceptors are a match for just about anything in the air.

...ummm, how much *training* do Iran's current pilots have on these platforms?

[thelastvirgil]

Never underestimate the power of a high-altitude EMP; the ultimate radar-jamming weapon. Just one, and the IAF has free reign over Iranian airspace.

[BookaT]

The Migs may be a match but I really doubt the Iranian pilots are a match for the Israeli pilots.

[Reagan Man]

Experts say, Israel couldn't get the job done alone. Maybe Israel with help from the US.

Better yet, make it a NATO operation.

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

Yes and sooner rather than later. The Mig 29 while an impressive aircraft. Is no match for an israeli pilot

[Babsig]

Count Denmark and Norway in. Actually, After seeing this headline in Newsweek tells me the MSM is itching for another war to cover.

[dinok]

Its pathetic for us and the Europeans to wait for a little country like Israel to do the job we should all do together.

Iran is a rogue nation that has to be defeated on land as well as the air.

The inability of western leaders to even say this shows how effeminate we have become as a people and culture. Maybe Oprah can figure it out.

[dinok]

No matter how good the pilot is, in this case the range of his or aircraft is the main factor. Some Iranian sites are just too far from Israel for the IAF to reach and bomb.

[lawnguy]

Should they speculate about targets in Newsweek?

[GSlob]

And how deep underground are these facilities? A bunker buster could destroy the entrance, or hit a ventilation shaft, but how much damage would it do to the body of a facility 200-300ft below the surface?
Here is a theoretical question: normally the nukes go supercritical in a spherical configuration, if only for the reasons of materials economy. What would happen if the supercriticality is achieved in a shaped charge geometry [yes, it would take more uranium]? Would it be possible to have a directed nuclear explosion for enhanced penetration?

[Ronin]

As scary as the idea may sound, the Israelis may not be bluffing.

Here's a tip, Newsweak. The IDF has NEVER been very big on bluffing.

[NickFlooding]

The questions are not if they can cripple the Iranian effort. The question is what then. Iran will surely want to rebuild and will learn from their mistakes. Also they will make even more mischief world wide. This needs to be done and concluded, no Micky Mouse half steps.

[Domangart]

The newsweak add seller is guessing. He is taking objects and playing Stratego. If you take these facilities out how do you get the ducks in the pond to stay still? There is still a government in place with 1,000,000 true believers. The short term benefit in this case is useless. This real need is long term change of government with control of Friday mob incitement.

[ExcursionGuy84]

So, do we know how good the Iranian pilots are as Fighter-jet drivers?

[manwiththehands]

"Its pathetic for us and the Europeans to wait for a little country like Israel to do the job we should all do together."

Nailed it. Iran should be defecating in their undergarments and kissing the collective butts of the entire civilized world by now.

It's pathetic how lazy and clueless the UN can be.

[Coleus]

Will Israel Strike Iran? >>

only if the USA permits them.

[epow]

Tehran's newly upgraded MiG-29 interceptors are a match for just about anything in the air.

Maybe. But the $64 question is, are the Iranian pilots a match for the Israeli pilots? If I was a betting man I would put my money on the Israelis.

[elcid1970]

Jeez, I've been a preacher in the wilderness for years about EMP and US vulnerability. But now that the E-bomb is non-nuclear, it's a perfect way to derange not only Iranian C&C, but the regime's ability to maintain civil control, as well.

Pop 'em and go, Israel!

[capitalist229]

What would an Israeli strike do to the price of crude oil if the Iranians react by stopping all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ?

If it happens how long will it take for us to respond and restore the flow of crude ?

Would the SPR save us during this time ?

BUMP