Posted on 01/30/2006 5:26:09 AM PST by jmaroneps37
Every even year since 1996, the political “experts” tell us the Democrats will win back the House. While these people are both boring and annoying they do have to be answered. Here’s a formidable list of problems the minority party will have to overcome to win in November.
1Corinthians Ch 7: 29, 31.
"I tell you, brothers, the time is running out........... For the world in its present form is passing away."
1) America self identifies 35% to 18% conservative over liberal. Voters see the Democrats as socialists and reject their ideas.
2) Florida’s demographics
The Florida State Republican Party’s report for 2005 included these points: the party collected $12 million last year - almost three times as much money as the Florida Democratic Party.
Of much more importance, it said more than 50,000 voters registered as Republicans, compared with a gain of only 3,640 new Democrats.
This is what happens when 1100 new people a day come to Florida. They are not going to Florida to vote Democrat, and by November there will be another 300,000 new people in the Sunshine State. That would mean another 50,000 new Republican voters. People don’t move to a new area, take the time and effort to register, and then stay home on Election Day. This will get us even more seats in Florida including the Senate seat. This is a peek into the future of other growing Red states.
3) The war in Iraq is not the quagmire the black table -phone media and the Democrats have spent the last three years telling us it is. Americans know this and have stop responding to these lies half truths and distortions.
4) Big Labor’s pull back from the Democrats will hurt them. In some races it will be the difference, no matter how the old media will try to spin it.
5) Howard Dean has crossed the line from “not helpful” to hurtful.
His antics will continue to drive people away. This is why we ended 2005 up 2 to 1 in money raised so far this year.
6) No voter fraud means trouble in many locations for Democrats
7) The loss of Louisiana after the investigation
8) The conservative blogosphere: 527 times stronger
The black table- phone media’s rathered evidence doesn’t go unchallenged any longer.
9) Blacks are slowly leaving the Democrats
The Democrats have no margin for shrinkage of the Black vote. If Republicans start to regularly get only 15% of Blacks, Democrats can’t win in many places. Already 1/3 of Blacks under 35 self identify as Republicans. In 2004 President Bush got 17% of the Black vote in Ohio. That means Blacks actually reelected Bush.
10) Democrats have come to rely on liars who give them phony poll information.
Zogby on Election Day 2004, comes to mind, so does Pew.
11) Redistricting make the numbers impossible
The effects of Republican controlled re-districting has resulted in a condition where only 20 or so House seats can be called "competitive" By any measure, however, there are 2 Democrats at a disadvantage for every Republican at a disadvantage. Current conditions put some Congressional Democrats in clear inescapable danger. John Barrow 12th Georgia, Charlie Melancon 3rd Louisiana, Chet Edwards 17th Texas Melissa Bean 8th Ill., come to mind.
12) Doom and gloom, rooting for the terrorists, doesn’t sell very well
With no escape strategy in hand, Democrats are rumbling toward the November elections as the American Al Qaeda Party. The things Democrats have said are very toxic to good politics. Even if they shut up this very day, their words would still be burning coals destroying the minority party’s chances for victory in 2006.
13) Scandals can carry you just so far
There is a theory in Behavioral Science that holds that “When the stimulus is constant, it disappears.” We saw this in the Clinton years. Scandal after true and real scandal tumbled out of the Whitehouse, but nothing much came from them. He beat impeachment and gave us the finger by selling pardons as he walked out the door, still in office.
14) America knows and understands the Democrats stand for:
Your 13year old daughter can have an abortion without telling you;
Two queers (their word not mine) “marrying” is a healthy alternate lifestyle;
America is a force for evil in the world;
An American defeat in Iraq would be a good thing;
America is always wrong. Europe is superior to America;
We should cut and run in a quick surrender in Iraq;
Hollywood values are American values;
Voters are stupid and liberal activist judges know better;
Patriotism is child like and corny;
School prayer was the cause of problems in our government schools;
All money belongs to Washington;
15) Evangelicals are in the game to stay
Another problem for the Democrats is the Christian mega church movement. The Evangelical Christian has become the GOP’s Black voter. They were a very powerful force in 2004. They will be again in November.
16) Banning guns still won’t win elections
The Democrat’s anti gun positions have helped the Republicans gain and hold seats and states. Their gun grabbing intentions gave us West Virginia, and helped us keep Arkansas and Tennessee. The tilt of West Virginia went from Bush +5 in 2000 to Bush +14 in 2004. No matter what the “experts” say this threatens Sen. Robert Byrd’s seat. Democrats will still be forced to lie about their real positions on guns or face defeat. The joke here is that the Democrats will have to put up genuine 2nd Amendment supporters in some places, then if they elect him, they’ll have to worry that he might flip parties. It happens.
17) Cindy Sheehan is the crazy cat woman from the Simpson’s
Cindy Sheehan has become a real embarrassment to the Democrats. Nevertheless, they won’t disavow her because they hate Bush as much as she does. She is saying what they think. That it hurts them with voters is secondary.
18) Queers (that’s their word not mine) marrying? No thanks.
In 2004, all eleven state level efforts to further the cause of queer (their word not mine) “marriage” went down to defeat. The Democrats are “married” to gay marriage. It hurt them last time, and it will continue to hurt them as long as they hold on to this destructive idea.
19) The candidate Gap
America’s continued roll to the right has brought the GOP to a position of dominance in the pool of potential candidates. Our bench is deeper.
Because of this advantage, Republican “down ballot” candidates are defeating Democrats, sometimes in surprising places. These defeats add up. They mean fewer new Democrat faces ready to step up to run for higher office.
This shallow bench problem has lead the Democrats to run people like Paul Hackett, a fraud who called President Bush an S.O.B. in Washington and ran commercials at home featuring Mr. Bush as if he were a Hackett supporter. Not once in his campaign, did Hackett mention he was a Democrat.
In a recent special election in Virginia, a state known as friendly territory for the military, the Democrats tried their “Democrats in uniform” strategy again. Again they had a candidate that wanted to talk only about his being an Army Ranger who served in Desert Storm. Again he avoided mentioning that he was a Democrat. Again the minority party lost.
20) The message Gap
After every losing campaign one thing is sure: The Democrats will lament their “not being able to get our message across.” Most honest observers know that when they do “get their message across” they lose.
This cycle they have made a very lame attempt to define what they stand for. The minority party has put together a vague seven point list of mays and shoulds. They probably tired very hard to get to ten items but couldn’t. They don’t stand for enough substance. Getting to ten was apparently too difficult. They have to lie to win.
21) The money Gap
The Republican National Committee received better than $102 million in 2005 and now has the largest cash-on-hand lead over the Democrats in over ten years. The RNC has $34 million in the bank. The minority party raised only $51 million and has just $5.5 million cash on hand.
22) The Economy is now in the best shape it has been in our lifetime
There are more Americans working and more Americans living in their own homes than ever before. There is less unemployment than there has been in decades. The “Tax Freedom Day” for America has moved up from May 3rd in 2000 to April 17th because of Republican tax policies. Americans feel the difference and will vote their back pockets.
23) The meaning of Bush’s improved voter numbers
In 2004, George W. Bush increased the number of votes he received in forty seven states. Why so many “experts” think nothing of this fact is a curiosity. Nevertheless, none of the issues of 2004 that got him those votes has turned against him by any honest observation.
As always, President Bush will be a great asset campaigning for GOP candidates.
24) The Clinton magic is over
“Most American voters now say there's no way they'd vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton if she runs for president in 2008 — while just 16 percent are firmly in her camp, a stunning new poll shows. The Gallup/CNN poll found that 51 percent say they definitely won't vote for Clinton (D-N.Y.) in 2008, another 32 percent might consider it, and only 16 percent vow to back her. That means committed anti-Hillary voters outnumber pro-Hillary voters by 3-1.” Gallup Poll results.
Mrs. Bill Clinton will be of little value campaigning for other Democrats.
25) Bungling the Alito hearings
The question for the minority party in respect to its disgraceful conduct during the Alito Hearing, is not IF it has hurt the Democrats, but how deeply it hurt them.
26) The never ending millstones around their neck
After seventy five years of drawing power from a conglomeration of special interest groups, the weight of these groups has now turned on them and is collapsing the minority party.
The Democrats have become indistinguishable from America’s fringe groups. Identifying with these groups has now become a millstone pulling down the Democrats
The Feminists are now a millstone pulling them down.
The NARAL is a millstone pulling them down.
The Big Labor is a millstone pulling them down.
The anti war crazies of moveon.org are a millstone pulling them down.
Gay “marriage” supporters are a millstone pulling them down.
The affirmative action lobby is a millstone pulling them down.
Hollywood is a millstone pulling them down. When “Brokeback Mountain” wins all the Oscars, it will have the same effect that “The Passion of the Christ” had, but for the exact opposite reason.
The National Educational Association is a millstone pulling them down.
The lying black table phone media has become a millstone pulling them down.
The left wing blogs are turned on them and are pulling them down.
The anti second amendment “Brady” groups are pulling them down.
And we have to be afraid of the Democrats?
Yes there are 26 but twenty five sounds better.
most people may not switch parties in one election cycle. They may sit out a few times first.
I don't know whether you are German or not, but your understanding of our Constitution is nothing short of abysmal. It is only the bar owner who has the right and the power as to whether smoking should or should not be allowed on his property. It is not government's or his customers' perogatives to make this decision. The customer only has the preogative to decide whether or not to patronize this business.
The beauty of our Constitution is that it doesn't matter what anybody believes or wants, the language of the Constitution is unambiguous and it means what it says until it is amended. The Court's duty is not to interpret the Constituion, but rather to enforce it.
Thanks for this and all your other pings. I have not thanked you individually for each one, but I do appreciate each and every one and hope that you will keeping bumping these threads. Better yet add your own thoughts and comments.
Good list - worth bookmarking!
[The beauty of our Constitution is that it doesn't matter what anybody believes or wants, the language of the Constitution is unambiguous and it means what it says until it is amended. The Court's duty is not to interpret the Constituion, but rather to enforce it.]
So you think the Supreme Court will strike down Washington State's new law? And New Jersey's new law? And Utah's new law? And Chicago's? If Alito tries something like this, the Republican Party won't know what hit it.
I am not German but American (profile is there). Sadly, Germany will be the last place on Earth with anti-smoking laws (except the Middle East-arabs and persians smoke way too much). In Germany, the liberals smoke because they consider it a "human right" to be "tolerant" about. Hitler was anti-smoking, so the German liberals can't be against it. The Catholic conservatives are the most likely to be anti-smoking in Germany...but every other European country will go no-smoking before Germany does.
Outside of Germany and the Middle East, the pro-smoking attitude is so obnoxious to most non-smokers...that we are enacting total bans around the world as the only measure to stop it.
The American Supreme Court will not overturn any of the state and municipal laws unless it wants to openly advertise how Republicans can get defeated in the next election. And by not overturning the laws, the ground for a federal law becomes more solid.
The overwhelming majority of Americans agree with me on this.
I really have to stress:
Just as there is no constitutional right to an abortion, there is no constitutional right to a cigarette.
Republican employers can and do fire people for smoking even in their own homes. The trend is increasing.
Waiters, waitresses, hosts and bartenders all have an OSHA right to a healthy work environment. You cannot say that such people are usually OK with smoking or they can chose whether or not to work for employers that ban smoking...because many such people need whatever work they can get. Without a total ban...such workers find themselves forced to work in smoky environments...while customers who are hungry often have no choice but to eat in a smoky restaurant or bar they happen to be near to.
But there is no need to argue anymore. The game is over. A Supreme Court decision that goes against the majority on this will only cause a major backlash.
The President has to deal with Iran and the WOT before November 2008. So we cannot count on the elections at that time to have to much to do with national security.
Very well done. All of what you say is true, and indeed the Dems have many problems going forward. That said, our side has one HUGE problem, and it has to do with how most of our citizens get the their bread buttered. More on this here.......http://axiomattic.blogspot.com/2006/01/two-americas.html
If that's the only solution, then we're probably doomed.
The only hope of avoiding this scenario is to elect enough conservatives to restore the Constitution before confidence in the full faith and credit of the US is lost. There is a small group of Freepers that believe they know how to do this.
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Without any doubt. Good luck!!!
I already agreed it *may* work in some states, but will fail once it gets to the Supremes. Unless they find a new way to extend the commerce clause.
Remember the old saying...all elections are local. Making a smoking ban a national issue won't fly. But making it a democrat issue at the local level may work in many localities.
I think we'll have to disagree on what's best for the party of the RAT.
millstones = constituents. That's how they win.
Mr. German,
I don't think you're grasping the concept of federalism. The states have rights to do what they will (as long as it's within the Federal consitution) and the Feds can ONLY do what the constitution says is legal.
Now having said that our consitution has become a b@stard child and politician freely ignore it or pass the buck for the supreme court to decied (ala Bush signing campaign finance reform in hopes that the supremes would rule it unconstitutional). The fact that we have Alito replacing O'Conner on the bench will help stop some of this, but we still need 1 or 2 more heads off the court to really get back to the constitution being properly enforced.
[Remember the old saying...all elections are local. Making a smoking ban a national issue won't fly.]
I guess we have differing opinions. I believe the Dems could win with a pro-defence, anti-smoking campaign in 2008.
Their main Supreme Court angle would be:
OSHA rights of workers. In all honesty, OSHA needs to get stricter about work environment health in the USA. It is a no-brainer that waitresses and bartenders have protection against smoke. Nobody could argue for 2 seconds in front of the Supreme Court that these are professions where the workers actually *want* the smoke, or could easily find jobs with employers that don't provide the smoke.
You didn't read the SmokeFreeSeattle.org website did you?
1) Evidence is piling up that bar employees are grateful for the worldwide bans that have gone into effect in the past 2 years. They are reporting less colds and sore throats.
2) Bar owners are reporting higher revenues because the cigarette smoke was repressing appetites. Smoking in bars is generally something cheapskates do to give themselves the feeling of consuming something. With smoking banned, the cheapskates have to pony up to buy food to put in their mouths. More importantly: non-smokers are walking into bars and not running away because of the smoke anymore. So they stick around to eat something.
3) Smokers are enjoying not having to deal with other's smoke (especially when they eat) which doesn't provide the nicotine fix that they smoke for themselves. If you smoke, why breathe the second hand stuff when 100% of your enjoyment comes from the puff that you yourself want to take. Also, smokers enjoy the comradery of going with others outside for a smoke.
The Supreme Court can uphold an OSHA Federal Law against smoking in all workplaces (including bars) and, therein, skirt the nonsense about property owners being allowed to do what they want (like washing dishes with dirty Aids needles nearby).
That is how it goes down in most countries and American states: it is about employee health.
Of course, we all know it is about customer health as well.
Did I read smokefreeseattle.com? Do you really believe al the tripe an advocacy group publishes? If so, do you read dailyKOS and agree?
I'd be surprised if smokefreeseattle reported on all the bar owners that went out of business. IF smokefree environments are good for profits then why are bars willingly going smoke free? Why does a law have to be passed? You do know bars have gone out of business because you don't want them to have smokers there, right?
But like I said it's a state issue and that's why I won't live in many states (the left coast being 3 of the main states I'd never live in). I'd hate to have a business in a state that the people think they can tell me how to run my business and make a profit (or how much profit I should make)...If I wanted that I'd move to China.
In regards to OSHA, I believe safety standards should be set by the State (and most are). Look at the Coal miners law that WVa just passed--it doesn't take a federal law to do things that states should do.
[the Feds can ONLY do what the constitution says is legal.]
OSHA work laws are federal. Air quality federal laws for workers exist already. Waitresses and bartenders are workers. If a new administration, hopefully a Republican administration, tightened OSHA enforcement of standing air quality rules...an effective federal ban on smoking wouldn't even have to come to a vote in the Senate and the Supremes could easily decide not to get involved or, if they do, to say that OSHA has the right to monitor workers' air quality.
Legislation at a federal level would be a great way for the Democrats to get the Republicans arguing with each other like we are here. I've already noted that, even if the Supremes came down against anti-smoking legislation...that in itself would cause a large amount of young Republicans to abandon the party. It is a generation thing.
I doubt there will be too many bars/restaurants in the western world where smoking will be allowed by 2012. If the holdouts are in Alabama...Alabama will have isolated itself politically, at least on that issue.
What I don't understand, the anti-smoking crowd claims that more profits can be made if they get rid of the smokers, but if that were the case wouldn't the laws of capitalism provide enough smoke free environments?
Once again, I hate smoking and can't stand to be around it. But I don't need a law to do for me what I can easily do myself--don't go near it. If I find a place doesn't have adequate smoke-free eating...I leave and if I really want to go there I write a letter or call to complain. Hopefully other non-smokers do the same and then we wouldn't need the laws.
I find the ban-smoking zealots are a lot like a bad neighbor. You know the ones that call the cops or report you to the homeowners before discussing the issue with you first.
It wouldn't matter if nine supreme court justices and every other American agreed with you. The people who wrote and the people who understand the Constitution know that I am the one who is right. The rights of the public end at the curb. When the public begins to encroach on private property, the beginning of the end of freedom, the economy, and the republic has begun. Not every stolen kiss ends in rape, but the precedent has been established.
If the public wants non-smoking bars and restuarants, there will be plenty of owners willing to cater to them. If you like the food or ambience of an establishment where smoking is permitted by the owner, do without or breathe second hand smoke. If you want to see the Second Amendment go up in smoke, go along with registration or bans on automatic weapons. Government goons figure they have forever to turn you into a slave. They'll settle for registration now or a smoking ban. Tomorrow they will come for your guns or a tax to pay for enforcement of the smoking ban in your establishment since its not part of the regular "public" beat.
The Constitution is a line in the sand or it is meaningless. You can't have it both ways. You can be free or stand aside and cheer while the government eats you alive. Once the cannibalism begins, groups will form to persuade the government to eat the others first, hoping against hope that they will be the last to be eaten or that government will see them for the faithful slaves they have become and not eat them at all.
"If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you and may posterity forget that ye were once our countrymen." Samuel Adams
[IF smokefree environments are good for profits then why are bars willingly going smoke free?]
Some joints cater only to smokers, often the type of person who feels bad about themselves. There is such a joint in my building in Germany. In the movie "The Perfect Storm" you see "The Eagles Nest" which was a fancied version of the real bar in Gloucester, Massachusetts which smells to high Heaven of fish and cigarette smoke. No middle class citizen would ever set foot in the place. All of these places need extensive renovations. They are total hole-in-the-wall dives. These places might go out of business with a smoking ban if they didn't get their act together and remodeled, etc. Except their smoking customers would have ZERO alternative places to go to get a stiff drink...which means, according to the statistics from places like Ireland with full bans...these customers continue to patronize the bars and to actually ORDER something like food to fit into their mouths.
The owners of a lot of less successful bars are not the type of businesspeople who keep up on trends by reading anything. The main reason why they don't willingly go smoke free is sheer ignorance. Their business model consists entirely of letting sad people sit down and light up and order a drink and lose their appetite because of the cigarette.
There is also the fact that, one bar cannot go smoke-free without all the other bars doing so...because a hefty percentage of bargoers are smokers. With bars, the bar employees need legal protection.
I suppose it could be OK for bars to allow smoking where the owner of the bar *is* the bartender and there are no employees, even immigrant aliens in the kitchen, that have to breathe the smoke in order to make a living.
The bottom line is that, according to the stats, it would take a really dumb businessowner to let himself go out of business because of a statewide or federal smoking ban.
The Republicans would get crucified if they tried to argue against this.
If I were on Fox News vs a Republican candidate who defended smoking in bars and restaurants? I would slice and dice the opponent with facts and figures and a strong argument for protecting the health of waitresses and bartenders. No intelligent Republican politician will ever, hopefully, get themselves sliced and diced on this issue.
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