Posted on 01/30/2006 5:26:09 AM PST by jmaroneps37
Every even year since 1996, the political “experts” tell us the Democrats will win back the House. While these people are both boring and annoying they do have to be answered. Here’s a formidable list of problems the minority party will have to overcome to win in November.
1Corinthians Ch 7: 29, 31.
"I tell you, brothers, the time is running out........... For the world in its present form is passing away."
1) America self identifies 35% to 18% conservative over liberal. Voters see the Democrats as socialists and reject their ideas.
2) Florida’s demographics
The Florida State Republican Party’s report for 2005 included these points: the party collected $12 million last year - almost three times as much money as the Florida Democratic Party.
Of much more importance, it said more than 50,000 voters registered as Republicans, compared with a gain of only 3,640 new Democrats.
This is what happens when 1100 new people a day come to Florida. They are not going to Florida to vote Democrat, and by November there will be another 300,000 new people in the Sunshine State. That would mean another 50,000 new Republican voters. People don’t move to a new area, take the time and effort to register, and then stay home on Election Day. This will get us even more seats in Florida including the Senate seat. This is a peek into the future of other growing Red states.
3) The war in Iraq is not the quagmire the black table -phone media and the Democrats have spent the last three years telling us it is. Americans know this and have stop responding to these lies half truths and distortions.
4) Big Labor’s pull back from the Democrats will hurt them. In some races it will be the difference, no matter how the old media will try to spin it.
5) Howard Dean has crossed the line from “not helpful” to hurtful.
His antics will continue to drive people away. This is why we ended 2005 up 2 to 1 in money raised so far this year.
6) No voter fraud means trouble in many locations for Democrats
7) The loss of Louisiana after the investigation
8) The conservative blogosphere: 527 times stronger
The black table- phone media’s rathered evidence doesn’t go unchallenged any longer.
9) Blacks are slowly leaving the Democrats
The Democrats have no margin for shrinkage of the Black vote. If Republicans start to regularly get only 15% of Blacks, Democrats can’t win in many places. Already 1/3 of Blacks under 35 self identify as Republicans. In 2004 President Bush got 17% of the Black vote in Ohio. That means Blacks actually reelected Bush.
10) Democrats have come to rely on liars who give them phony poll information.
Zogby on Election Day 2004, comes to mind, so does Pew.
11) Redistricting make the numbers impossible
The effects of Republican controlled re-districting has resulted in a condition where only 20 or so House seats can be called "competitive" By any measure, however, there are 2 Democrats at a disadvantage for every Republican at a disadvantage. Current conditions put some Congressional Democrats in clear inescapable danger. John Barrow 12th Georgia, Charlie Melancon 3rd Louisiana, Chet Edwards 17th Texas Melissa Bean 8th Ill., come to mind.
12) Doom and gloom, rooting for the terrorists, doesn’t sell very well
With no escape strategy in hand, Democrats are rumbling toward the November elections as the American Al Qaeda Party. The things Democrats have said are very toxic to good politics. Even if they shut up this very day, their words would still be burning coals destroying the minority party’s chances for victory in 2006.
13) Scandals can carry you just so far
There is a theory in Behavioral Science that holds that “When the stimulus is constant, it disappears.” We saw this in the Clinton years. Scandal after true and real scandal tumbled out of the Whitehouse, but nothing much came from them. He beat impeachment and gave us the finger by selling pardons as he walked out the door, still in office.
14) America knows and understands the Democrats stand for:
Your 13year old daughter can have an abortion without telling you;
Two queers (their word not mine) “marrying” is a healthy alternate lifestyle;
America is a force for evil in the world;
An American defeat in Iraq would be a good thing;
America is always wrong. Europe is superior to America;
We should cut and run in a quick surrender in Iraq;
Hollywood values are American values;
Voters are stupid and liberal activist judges know better;
Patriotism is child like and corny;
School prayer was the cause of problems in our government schools;
All money belongs to Washington;
15) Evangelicals are in the game to stay
Another problem for the Democrats is the Christian mega church movement. The Evangelical Christian has become the GOP’s Black voter. They were a very powerful force in 2004. They will be again in November.
16) Banning guns still won’t win elections
The Democrat’s anti gun positions have helped the Republicans gain and hold seats and states. Their gun grabbing intentions gave us West Virginia, and helped us keep Arkansas and Tennessee. The tilt of West Virginia went from Bush +5 in 2000 to Bush +14 in 2004. No matter what the “experts” say this threatens Sen. Robert Byrd’s seat. Democrats will still be forced to lie about their real positions on guns or face defeat. The joke here is that the Democrats will have to put up genuine 2nd Amendment supporters in some places, then if they elect him, they’ll have to worry that he might flip parties. It happens.
17) Cindy Sheehan is the crazy cat woman from the Simpson’s
Cindy Sheehan has become a real embarrassment to the Democrats. Nevertheless, they won’t disavow her because they hate Bush as much as she does. She is saying what they think. That it hurts them with voters is secondary.
18) Queers (that’s their word not mine) marrying? No thanks.
In 2004, all eleven state level efforts to further the cause of queer (their word not mine) “marriage” went down to defeat. The Democrats are “married” to gay marriage. It hurt them last time, and it will continue to hurt them as long as they hold on to this destructive idea.
19) The candidate Gap
America’s continued roll to the right has brought the GOP to a position of dominance in the pool of potential candidates. Our bench is deeper.
Because of this advantage, Republican “down ballot” candidates are defeating Democrats, sometimes in surprising places. These defeats add up. They mean fewer new Democrat faces ready to step up to run for higher office.
This shallow bench problem has lead the Democrats to run people like Paul Hackett, a fraud who called President Bush an S.O.B. in Washington and ran commercials at home featuring Mr. Bush as if he were a Hackett supporter. Not once in his campaign, did Hackett mention he was a Democrat.
In a recent special election in Virginia, a state known as friendly territory for the military, the Democrats tried their “Democrats in uniform” strategy again. Again they had a candidate that wanted to talk only about his being an Army Ranger who served in Desert Storm. Again he avoided mentioning that he was a Democrat. Again the minority party lost.
20) The message Gap
After every losing campaign one thing is sure: The Democrats will lament their “not being able to get our message across.” Most honest observers know that when they do “get their message across” they lose.
This cycle they have made a very lame attempt to define what they stand for. The minority party has put together a vague seven point list of mays and shoulds. They probably tired very hard to get to ten items but couldn’t. They don’t stand for enough substance. Getting to ten was apparently too difficult. They have to lie to win.
21) The money Gap
The Republican National Committee received better than $102 million in 2005 and now has the largest cash-on-hand lead over the Democrats in over ten years. The RNC has $34 million in the bank. The minority party raised only $51 million and has just $5.5 million cash on hand.
22) The Economy is now in the best shape it has been in our lifetime
There are more Americans working and more Americans living in their own homes than ever before. There is less unemployment than there has been in decades. The “Tax Freedom Day” for America has moved up from May 3rd in 2000 to April 17th because of Republican tax policies. Americans feel the difference and will vote their back pockets.
23) The meaning of Bush’s improved voter numbers
In 2004, George W. Bush increased the number of votes he received in forty seven states. Why so many “experts” think nothing of this fact is a curiosity. Nevertheless, none of the issues of 2004 that got him those votes has turned against him by any honest observation.
As always, President Bush will be a great asset campaigning for GOP candidates.
24) The Clinton magic is over
“Most American voters now say there's no way they'd vote for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton if she runs for president in 2008 — while just 16 percent are firmly in her camp, a stunning new poll shows. The Gallup/CNN poll found that 51 percent say they definitely won't vote for Clinton (D-N.Y.) in 2008, another 32 percent might consider it, and only 16 percent vow to back her. That means committed anti-Hillary voters outnumber pro-Hillary voters by 3-1.” Gallup Poll results.
Mrs. Bill Clinton will be of little value campaigning for other Democrats.
25) Bungling the Alito hearings
The question for the minority party in respect to its disgraceful conduct during the Alito Hearing, is not IF it has hurt the Democrats, but how deeply it hurt them.
26) The never ending millstones around their neck
After seventy five years of drawing power from a conglomeration of special interest groups, the weight of these groups has now turned on them and is collapsing the minority party.
The Democrats have become indistinguishable from America’s fringe groups. Identifying with these groups has now become a millstone pulling down the Democrats
The Feminists are now a millstone pulling them down.
The NARAL is a millstone pulling them down.
The Big Labor is a millstone pulling them down.
The anti war crazies of moveon.org are a millstone pulling them down.
Gay “marriage” supporters are a millstone pulling them down.
The affirmative action lobby is a millstone pulling them down.
Hollywood is a millstone pulling them down. When “Brokeback Mountain” wins all the Oscars, it will have the same effect that “The Passion of the Christ” had, but for the exact opposite reason.
The National Educational Association is a millstone pulling them down.
The lying black table phone media has become a millstone pulling them down.
The left wing blogs are turned on them and are pulling them down.
The anti second amendment “Brady” groups are pulling them down.
And we have to be afraid of the Democrats?
Yes there are 26 but twenty five sounds better.
Your final point is the most telling.
The Democratic Party, in order to regain national prominence, must distance itself from the raving moonbats in its party. Think back to the 80s, to the rise of the conservative movement. The Republican party had to actively dissasociate itself from the white supremacists (think David Duke), the blatant anti-Semites (think Pat Buchanan), and the other extremists within the party. Do you really think we would have had 5 victories in the last 7 presidential elections, or taken control of both houses of Congres, had we embraced Buchanan, Duke, and their ilk? Of course not.
The problem for the left, however, is that the moonbats are their biggest financial supporters. Until they accept the short-term pain and cut ties, formally and officially, with Michael Moore, Cindy Sheehan, Harry Belafonte, etc., their death spiral will continue.
Eventually, I believe the Democrat Party will split. There will be an ultra-liberal faction that will be small but influential due to the amount of money they bring in. They will likely create a "new" party with a new name. Eventually, due to inability to actually win any elections, that party will fade to obsolescence. The larger, more centrist party will retain the name Democrat, and, in time, will move towards the center and become a serious challenge to Republicans again, probably around 2020.
Based on current polling data and what I believe to be true based on my own instincts, I think Democrats are going to accept and adapt to the reality that Hillary is a loser for them. By the same token, I think McCain will recognize that he cannot win the Republican nomination, but that he wants to be President so bad that he will not have any trouble making up his mind to switch when the ABS Networks, the NYT, LASlimes and the Washingtoncompost come begging. Hillary won't be the 2008 Democratic nominee; McCainiac will.
Don't be depressed; ping Jim Robinson and ask him to lead this effort.
But they don't act that way. Furthermore, both Gore and Kerry came within a single state of winning.
Ah, but the voters DO act that way. Bush's narrow victories in 2000 and 2004 are a direct result of the winner-take-all electoral college system.
Think of this - if California's 55 electoral votes, and New York's 30-odd, had been somehow reapportioned, the electoral vote count wouldn't have even been close, and Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 would've been more-or-less irrelevant.
I believe the constitution says otherwise. What you outlined is an argument for local and state elected officials. But nationally they can't pass a smoking ban. They could regulate tobacco as an illegal product at the national level, but nothing else. To do so would be a disgrace to the constitution. I'm all for allowing states to do what they want.
Good post.
You're right, if the Dems were smart, they would move more to the center/right. It would be good for the country to have two strong parties competing for votes. Competition never hurts, and I think would help keep Republican party further to the right.
Don't see it happening, though.
There's another option that will help. And that's to end earmarks. This will prevent politicians from slipping into law a new bridge without anyone voting on it.
bumping
Thanks so much. Just forwarded this list to all of my concerned friends...with the subject line: Positive Stuff
Good idea but the WSJ reported this past week that big ranches out west were taking three or four years to sell. The Hollywood types apparently are tired of putting up hay.
Great post. Of course they still have major $$$$ on their side in the likes of MMoore, Sooroos, and other left likes. The division in this country is the reason why they shelve out the big bucks. I hope they spend their last dimes trying to do so. Evil cannot win and will not win. They can do nothing without permission of our One and Only God...the One in whom those athiests do not believe.
BTTT
The Dems have a long way to go to get as far down as they were in 1924. A mere eight years later they were in charge and stayed there for a generation. Granted it took the collapse of the economy to bring them back from 1924 but it just shows you that you cannot count them out. Stay eternally vigilant.
Think of this: a little better in Ohio and you would be talking about President John Kerry.
My point is that the Republicans are not doing as well as you seem to think and the Democrats are not doing as bad as you seem to think. The past two elections could just as easily have gone to Democrats--which is just as valid a look-back scenario as the different districting you proposed.
Only too true. What we need is either at-large contests for congress in each state, or a mechanism for automatically varying the boundaries of congressional districts so that gerrymandering is not possible.And term limits . . .
But it works for us in the short term, so I guess we shouldn't complain. If I were a Democrat, I would be really PO'ed.
Only too true. What we need is either at-large contests for congress in each state, or a mechanism for automatically varying the boundaries of congressional districts so that gerrymandering is not possible.And term limits . . .
[I believe the constitution says otherwise. What you outlined is an argument for local and state elected officials. But nationally they can't pass a smoking ban.]
You are only emphasizing my point that the Democrats could rip the Republicans a new one if they did decide to drop the anti-war nonsense and replace it with something wildly popular like anti-smoking laws. The fact that you hate smoking but are willing to go to bat for smokers...shows only that you would apparently stand on the ship as it goes into battle and go down with it.
Your advice would lead a naive candidate to "stick up for the constitution" which, by the way, is something you see at DailyKOS every day (the leftists always show photos of the constitution on their pathetic websites).
The younger Republicans will not follow you here.
For the newer generations, smoking is considered a disgusting imposition on others, like assault.
There is no constitutional right for a bar owner to allow some of their customers to assault other customers.
Besides, all studies show that, wherever food and drink is served, food and drink sales revenues go way up when smoking is banned.
Cigarettes are an appetite suppressant. Bar-owners are cutting their revenue off by allowing smoking.
Check out Smoke Free Seattle to see what Republican voters helped pass recently in Washington State.
The vote, 3 months ago, was 63% statewide in favor of banning smoking in all "workplaces"...to protect employees (it is unfair to say that some jobs, like waitressing or bartending, should only be for those who are willing to breathe smoke-this can directly impoverish someone in that profession who finally decides that he or she can't stand smoke but still needs to earn a living).
We all know that Republicans and Democrats were 50:50 in Seattle for the election of the governor. But it was 63:37 in favor of banning smoking in every business including bars and casinos with no exceptions.
Obviously, in addition to the 27% of male smokers in Washington who are "presumed" to have voted against the Washington Clean Air Act...there may have been an additional 10% of socalled "conservatives" who voted with them based on the momentum of thinking it was a "conservative cause".
But apparently 26% of Republicans completely abandoned their fellow "conservatives" on the smoking issue.
In terms of a federal law proposal...it could spell disaster to Republicans if the Democrats were intelligent enough to use a popular cause like anti-smoking instead of a treasonous cause like anti-war.
Because you could count on 26% of Republicans, especially the women and younger people, abandoning anyone who pretends that smoking is a human right protected by any constitution. Defending nicotine while condemning marijuana is, in addition, seen by the new generation as outrageously hypocritical.
Again, it doesn't matter how I feel: the statistics are there to show you that this is not a fight Republicans want to be on the wrong side of.
If the Democrats had any brains, they would be thinking of other topics besides their treason in the WOT.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.