Posted on 01/27/2006 5:23:10 PM PST by LouAvul
DAVOS, Switzerland (FORTUNE) - Be afraid. Be very afraid.
That's the message from two of the world's most successful investors on the topic of high oil prices. One of them, Hermitage Capital's Bill Browder, has outlined six scenarios that could take oil up to a downright terrifying $262 a barrel.
The other, billionaire investor George Soros, wouldn't make any specific predictions about prices. But as a legendary commodities player, it's worth paying heed to the words of the man who once took on the Bank of England -- and won. "I'm very worried about the supply-demand balance, which is very tight," Soros says.
"U.S. power and influence has declined precipitously because of Iraq and the war on terror and that creates an incentive for anyone who wants to make trouble to go ahead and make it." As an example, Soros pointed to the regime in Iran, which is heading towards a confrontation with the West over its nuclear power program and doesn't show any signs of compromising. "Iran is on a collision course and I have a difficulty seeing how such a collision can be avoided," he says.
Another emboldened troublemaker is Russian president Vladimir Putin, Soros said, citing Putin's recent decision to briefly shut the supply of natural gas to Ukraine. The only bit of optimism Soros could offer was that the next 12 months would be most dangerous in terms of any price shocks, because beginning in 2007 he predicts new oil supplies will come online.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
At that point, we strip-mine the damned coal, lynch any eco-weenie who objects, and start building coal-to-gasoline plants. And for power we go heavily nuke.
Well, either that or just confiscate all of Soro's money. Works for me. I would emjoy seeing Soros homeless.
(Please forgive me....)
Where did I see that recipe for turning used cooking oil into bio-diesel?
As others state here, I can't see that happening for longer than a month or two. We might have to tap into the reserve in a major way, but other and better sources will come on line, conservation will make a big difference and Canada may try to supplant the Middle East as our biggest pain in butt. They may force us to watch hockey or something, but overall I think we'd come out alright--probably even better for the experince in the long run.
I'm just starting on this thread but will still comment. Peak Oil is BS, IMHO.
If you are in the industry, I'll listen. If not, please don't be swayed by the doom and gloom crowd. The prediction of finite oil and gas has been overblown for years, and has been proven to be wrong each time.
Sigh. Remember the under-$20/bbl oil under Clinton? The investors are in a complex situation:
--if they sit where they are, they make a killing, but people get p.o.'d at them
--if they invest, they gain brownie points, but drive down spot prices, and risk taking a bath when prices fall again
--and they still have to deal with environmentalist whackos, entrenched interests from existing oil sources, economies of scale, creating the infrastructure to process and deliver the oil from the new locations, etc.
Think it through a litte, first, in more practical terms.
Cheers!
Shortages of whale oil will drive the cost up. Oh yeah, we weren't here back then. Still, doom and gloom defy wisdom.
My thoughts exactly. No fear.
You may not be an expert but your common sense is dead on.
What % of the world's food, innovation, Freedom, and Defence does the US supply?
Seriously, some of your remarks are beginning to resemble those of a troll.
After looking at your home page, I doubt that you really want to take it that far...
Cheers!
I would not say that.
Developing resources is also hampered by envrionmentalists who want you to stop using oil or gas.
The left does not need rigs. They will just wish it out of the ground.
Note to self:
"Two dimensional analysis SO twentieth century... get with the new paradigm and stop paying attention to the non-instaninaitous nature of the transformation of cats and dogs into refined petroleum - $250 oil would be short-term (decades, max) event, meanwhile, THINK OUTSDIE THE BOX... does US really for example need scheduled commerical air transport? ... handful of people who really need to fly can just charter a jet at 10x current costs, meanwhile rest drive if they can afford gas until canine liquefaction infrastructure comes on line."
My understanding is that oil sands are economic when oil reaches $100 /barrel. One problem is that the process is so corrosive that the plant's lifetime is only five years.
Economics, BTW, is defined as the science of choices by my favorite economist.
Sowell is a favorite of mine, too..
If people had any clue they could have energy at pretty much whatever price they want. But you have to understand economics to get it.
Perhaps you can tell us all how you think Sowell claims that 'we can have energy at pretty much whatever price we want'?
Just how will that work?
What was your point then at post #95?
Huh? Oil is an international commodity, whoever pays the top price gets the oil, where ever it comes from. The only "our" oil we have is in the SPR, sufficient as a short term supply buffer for unusual events.
has to do with the definition of what a resource is.
"When you hear estimates like "$80 / barrel" for shale oil, keep in mind those are usually calculated using $40 / barrel mideast oil to build and fuel equipment and extract the shale oil.'
This is nonsense; if there is $40 dollar oil there is no $80 oil (same finished product). The oil markets are more liquid. No body in their right mind would buy $80 oil if there were $40 oil.
shutdown. all cost of goods skyrockets as a part of transportation costs, including food, energy. some people finding it cheaper not to work than drive 20 miles to work, if they cannot carpool. major political upheaval, unemployement, and if it last for any amount of time, the first depression since the 30's. Major public companies with heavy debt (airlines are just one) declare bankruptcy as they cannot meet covenants. That is just here.
It wouldn't be as bad as a large meteor strike but it would quickly result in major problems worldwide.
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