Posted on 01/24/2006 5:58:58 AM PST by Esther Ruth
Last update - 09:26 24/01/2006
Iranian official: UN sanctions may lead us to seal off Persian Gulf
By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent
A senior Iranian official threatened that Tehran may forcibly prevent oil export via the Straits of Hormuz if the UN imposed economic sanctions due to Iran's nuclear program, an Iranian news Web site said on Monday.
This is the first time an Iranian official makes military threats in a public statement on Tehran's recent disagreements with the West.
The news site, affiliated with the radical student movement in which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was once a member, quoted Mohammed-Nabi Rudaki, deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission.
(Excerpt) Read more at haaretz.com ...
LOL - your #46. Beachfront property for Turkey and Iraq.
It seems Iran is following the playbook from the 1st Gulf War - alienate all the other Arab states. And also, threaten Israel with missile attacks. Worked as a great strategy for Saddam. The only issue will be the role of Russia and cHina in all this.
[With all due respect, you sound like you've gotten your view about conducting military operations in the Arabian Gulf from Hollywood.]
Your post and mine touched on political ramifications. I wasn't talking about military issues. I am saying that we are *waiting* for a provocation. Any military attack at all by the Iranians on allied shipping would suffice as more than Gulf of Tonkin quality. We don't need Pearl Harbor or 9-11 quality provocations this time around. A Gulf of Tonkin incident would be more than enough.
As for how "easy" it would be to liberate Iran militarily: it would be the liberal Hollywood people who would want to pretend now that it would be difficult to defeat Iran militarily, not the other way around.
I've also noted that, as much as many of would love to play armchair quarterbacks, those like you and me who were actually in the military might accidentally reveal a secret tactic or strategy that the other side can collect and use in their planning.
I would rather not surmise what Rumsfeld might be doing now to overthrow the Iranian regime quickly. I guess I can say that he will use his maxim: "Speed kills...the enemy."
About using nukes on Iranian civilians...no, I think we would sooner nuke Pakistan and Saudi Arabia where the average person may not like us, than nuke Tehran even if a war with Iran results in the use of nukes by the Iranian leaders. In making the consideration on who to nuke in revenge for the use of nukes against Americans, we will have to consider just how involved Al Qaeda is with the Iranian government and Hezbollah.
[Has anyone stopped to wonder how those other producers might react to their neighbor's advertising a plan to cut off their source of income?
I wondered that, too. Kuwait, Saudi, the UAE...they may have some strong opinions about this.]
I've noted in other threads that we seem to be trying to "thread the needle" on this topic: we want the Sunni Arabs to come out in full support of US military action against the Shiite nutcases. This means the Sunni Arab "street" to include the Iraqi insurgency, as well as teh Sunni arab governments.
Although it is in the interest of these Sunnis that we do this and succeed (unless they know the Iranian hardliners are allied with Al Qaeda and they support Al Qaeda)...their leaders may cynically conclude that we will, in fact, do their dirty work for them regarding the Iranian regime and they can just sit back and condemn us for it in order to keep the Sunni "street" in contempt of the USA and American style democratic reforms.
The best way to end the WOT would be to have Iran attack Pakistan and the Gulf States and to have everyone want to pitch in to change the Iranian regime, especially Al Jazeera.
But I doubt this will happen. I predict the liberation of Iran will be conducted against the will of Al Jazeera. The ruling elites don't want democracy and, for instance, women voting in their own countries.
Imagine...a true Sunni "believer" is supposed to want the destruction of Shiite political Islam. The Iraqi insurgency exists largely because the US is correctly seen as weakening Sunni political Islam relative to Shiite Political Islam over the past 3 years. Remember: when the US soldiers were fighting Sadr's forces in Najaf...the Sunni Iraqi insurgency gave the US soldiers a respite so a maximum amount of Shiite militiamen could be killed by the Americans (similar to the Russians pausing outside of Warsaw in order to allow the Nazis to put down the Jewish uprising there). Theoretically, you could get the average conservative Sunni Muslim Al Jazeera viewer *cheering* for US soldiers as they wipe out the Shiite Mullahs in Iran...all televised in the Sunni arab states and Pakistan.
But this scenario assumes a logical Sunni arab street.
I contend that it is not only an imperative that we remove the head of Shiite political Islam...but we do so in a manner that wins us the respect of the Sunni street for taking their more serious political enemy from them.
[I contend that it is not only an imperative that we remove the head of Shiite political Islam...but we do so in a manner that wins us the respect of the Sunni street for taking their more serious political enemy from them.]
This means that the managers at Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya will have to be consulted and onboard with an Iran liberation...as an offer they personally cannot refuse. With an Iran War, the lives of the managers of the Sunni Arab Stations will have to be pawned. We cannot afford them spewing out left wing "the US is imperialist" garbage at a time like that because this would prolong the war with the Sunnis and probably lead to 40 million Sunnis getting nuked within 10 years (the mixture of leftism and Islamism is too deadly to allow to continue).
Here is a study circa 1997 that is fairly interesting.
http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SF113/forum113.html
Iran has a significant anti-shipping capability. They armed with silkworm missles as well as possibly up to 20 modern missle cruisers and 1000s of light attack craft. Anti-shipping missles are very hard to counter. We would have to spend a considerable amount of time using air and land assests to clear the coastal batteries and Iranian Naval vessels out. I would say if this scenario went into effect, the Straits could be shutdown for at least 3 -5 weeks. This would have a major impact on oil shipments (rougly 1/6) of the world's oil is exported through the strait.
However, what is the alternative? A nuclear-armed terrrorists country who has already shown its disdain for the west and publicly stated intentions of "wiping Israel off the map."
lol. Try 20 missile boats (MTB sized with 4 each) and some rubber dingies. One actual modern missile cruiser would sink the entire lot in less than 4 hours.
Timing seems to be the key here. It's a bit of a game of chicken. The optimum scenario for Iran is to drag this out until they can actually test a nuclear weapon. Once that occurs, the gameboard gets turned over and the Saudis should probably just quietly pack their bags and retire to France.
If Iran feels it cannot reach critical mass before getting bombed by Israel and the U.S., the mullahs will be compelled to stick an economic shiv in the West while gambling that they would only be conventionally attacked, and the theocracy will live to see another day, as will their scientists and whatever knowledge they've compiles. (i.e., the nuclear program is merely delayed, not destroyed). In this circumstance, cutting of oil through the Straits of Hormuz is still a risky proposition since their second biggest customer, China (just after Japan), would bring tremendous pressure on Tehran to stand down - a humiliating concept for the mullahs, but one they have to consider before doing something rash. If they're going to invite a bombing and tell the Chinese to kiss off, they may go for broke and
1) Block the straits
2) Engage the U.S. in a race for the Saudi oil fields, drawing our military away from Baghdad at a crucial juncture and probably resulting in an all-out civil war in Iraq.
4) Meanwhile, with the U.S. engaged with Iran, Israel directs its energies toward Damascus and Southern Lebanon.
5) Egypt, facing out of control violence with Gaza, and fearing spillover of unrest into Cairo, has no choice but to enter Gaza and take control of the situation with assurances to Israel they're not targeting the Holy Land. Strangely enough, at this point, Israel probably welcomes Egyptian troops to quell the Palestinians while dealing with Syria.
6) Oil is $100 a barrel, easy. Conventional attacks begin on Tehran, with growing pressure on the West to launch a nuclear strike and decapitate the entire government.
7) President Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah declare the return of Mahdi imminent, declaring war on Europe and Israel, inciting widespread violence in Paris, Madrid, London, Brussels, and Rome.
8) At this point, our forces are thinned out from Baghdad to Riyadh to Kuwait City. Suddenly, the lynchpin in the region is Amman, Jordan. The king knows his city is strategically important in a MidEast-wide conflict. His best chance at surviving is to hitch his wagon to the U.S., but cannot publicly accept Israeli military assistance.
9) Now we're stuck. Let's say at this point we nuke Tehran because the situation is out of control. At this point, Muslims unite across Europe and make the Paris riots look like dress rehearsal for a performance of Les Miserables.
10) Elsewhere, India, fearing the collapse of the Musharraf regime, is ready on a hair-trigger to reduce Karachi and Islamabad to radioactive waste if the whipped-up Islamist street succeeds in a coup.
This is what Iran can do WITHOUT a nuclear weapon in its arsenal, if it's willing to sacrifice its existence in the name of ruining Israel and the world economy.
Here is a short listing. There are several new Chineese frigates entering service and may already be functional.
The Iranian Navy had (2000) approximately 1100 officers, 11,400 enlisted men and another 10,000 Pasdaran in the Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.
Fleet headquarters and principal dock facilities are located at Bandar Abbas, with lesser facilities in the Persain Gulf at Kharg Island and Khorramshar, on the Arabian Sea at Chah Bahar, and on the Caspain Sea at Bandar Anzali, where the Fourth Naval Zone operates some 50 patrol vessels.
Iran is the only nation of the Persian Gulf to operate attack submarines. Three Russian Kilo class diesel-electric powered attack submarines were delivered from 1992-97. All three are based at Bandar Abbas. Each is armed with 6 533mm torpedo tubes that can carry 18 torpedoes or 24 mines and a fin-mounted surface to air missile system
3 Saam(Vosper Mk 5) class frigates of 1250 tons displacement armed with 4 Chinese C-802 antiship missiles, 1 114mm gun, 2 35mm guns, 3 20mm guns, 2 12.7mm MG, 2 82mm mortors and 1 Limbo Mk 10 antisubmarine mortor
2 U.S. PF 103 class patrol ships of 900 tons displacement, armed with 2 3inch guns, 2 40mm guns, 2 20mm guns and 2 12.7mm MGs
10 Combattante IIB class guided-missile patrol craft armed with 4 C-802 antiship missiles and 1 3inch and 1 40mm gun
3 US PGM 71 class patrol craft
3 U.S. Coast Guard Cape class patrol craft
9 US Mk III class patrol boats
6 or more US 50 foot class patrol boats
up to 12 US Enforcer class patrol boats
1 US Cape class inshore minesweeper
2 Chavoush class amphibous logistic support docks with 800 ton cargo capacity
4 Hengam class Tank Landing ships with a capacity of 600 tons of cargo and 168 troops. Has flight deck for a Sea King size helicopter and can stow up to 12 T-55 tanks or 6 Chiefton tanks. Each carriers 2 LCVPs and 12 personnel landing craft
2 Arya Sahand class Tank landing ships, can lay mines
3 or more utility landing craft
4 Wellington type air-cushion landing craft, can carry 60 troops
7 Delvar class support ships, can plant mines
12 Hendijan class general purpose tenders
1 coastal buoy tender
1 large replenishment oiler
2 Bandar Abbas class small replenishment oilers
1 ex-US Amphion class repair ship
2 water tankers
1 training ship
1 large floating dry dock
1 exUS floating dry dock
1 inshore survey craft
3 coastal fuel lighters
2 Ksew class lighters
7 large harbour tugs
2 small harbor tugs
2 water barges
8 Qa'em series training craft
Maritime Aviation operates
6 ASH-3D Sea King attack and martime patrol helicopters
7 AB 212 transport helicopters
5 AB 205A utility helicopters
14 AB 206A utility helicopters
2 RH-53D and I HH-53 heavy lift heicopters
3 P-3F Orion maritime patrol aircraft
4 Fokker F-27 Mk 400M Friendship transports
4 Falcon 20 and 4 Aero Commander utility transports
10 Dornier Do-228 light maritime patrol aircraft
The Air Force operates 5 C-130H-MP long-range martime patrol aircraft
Several hundred Chinese-supplied HY-4 (CSS-2-C2 Silkworm) and C-801(CSS-C-3 Seersucker) antiship missiles are employed at coastal positions, and there have been attempts to launch them from a naval auxilary veseel as well. C-802 missiles have also been adapted for land launch.
The Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has about 10,000 personnel in a seperate organization from the navy. Its leadership is said to be erratic although coordination with the regular navy is improving.
10 Chinese Houdong class guided missile patrol craft with 4 C-802 antiship missiles and 2 30mm cannon each
At least 14 indigenously built patrol boats of various types
32 Boghammer Boat special forces craft. The primary vessel used to attack merchant ships. US Forces destroyed 5 in 1987-88. Of 6.4tons displacement with a maximum speed of 45 knots. Armed with a wide variety of weapons fits.
35 or more GRP launches
8 or more Type 412 Sea Truck landing craft (LCVP)
2 special forces landing craft
1 small hovercraft
Iran will not attack Israel, they might attack Saudi oil facilities.
Jason,
ChinaThreat is correct. It would take at least 48 hours to neutralize the elements he just alluded to.
while high gas prices are not desirable, I have never believed the hype of those who say Iran can have 'catastrophic' impact. There will always be someone else who can step up to fill the oil needs. The incentive to do so will be too high.
Iranian rhetoric is getting high. If they do any of the things they have threatened, be it denial of rights of passage, mining, or open attack, these will be acts of war, and will not be tolerated by the US or our allies. I suspect that FONOPS are already underway.
[Iran will not attack Israel, they might attack Saudi oil facilities.]
It would be our fondest desire. The best way to end the WOT is to have the Sunni street backing a US-led support of an Iranian revolution. An Iranian Shiite attack on any Sunni country would be like manna from Heaven for the US.
Hehe I second that.
"They do have cruise missiles which would be mortal dangers to tankers."
We have nuclear missiles which can incinerate the cruise missiles, even if we don't have precise location data :)
Military analyst Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Security and International Studies notes that “Iran has given modernization of its naval forces high priority,” acquiring sophisticated anti-ship missiles from China and Ukraine, long-range submarines from Russia, high-speed attack boats from France and an arsenal of some 2,000 mines. In Cordesman’s view, Iran may have the “potential capability to close the Gulf until US naval and air power could clear the mines and destroy the missile launchers and submarines.”
I would suggest picking up this book:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0275965295/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-3469818-9587837#reader-link
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