Posted on 01/17/2006 7:10:28 AM PST by 68skylark
It looks like the future may be bumpy. Military affairs may play a larger and larger role in our future -- our Global War on Terrorism may be just a small, opening prelude compared to the conflicts in front of us.
The Dark Ages are looking to make a comeback.
Pure gold!
To paraphrase a very smart man many FReepers know and love:
The graveyard is full of people who make linear assumptions in a non-linear world.
Actually, nothing less than the discrediting of Islam, on a massive scale, followed up by successful evangelization of the former muslims, will suffice. I suspect that this may happen after Mecca becomes a glowing crater.
> The basic premise is that it probably impossible for
> the US to stop an Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons,
> short of a full-scale invasion.
That might be a useful premise for some war game, but
I disagree with it as a broad conclusion.
If we act soon.
Mike
It's my understanding that the Iranian nuclear ficilities are so numerous and so deeply dug in, that nothing short of occupying the country will be sufficient. I don't think Israel can pull that off.
This isni't like bombing a single Iraqi plant.
Bump.
Maybe, but Israel might feel that to do nothing is simply too dangerous. At some point, by doing nothing, Iran will have a bomb and soon. To do something, even take out a few critical components, might give them time.
Iran plays a game in which they either hope no one will call their bluff, or they do want someone to try and stop them.
In either case, if you were Sharon's successor, and had to decide now, what would you do?
Meant to add:
Either way, it's win/win for the Mullahs. If no one stops them, they have their bomb. If Israel/USA attack, they can crack down domestically and use that as the "I told you so! See why we need a nuke!" moment.
I'm not raising all these kids and grandkids so some lunatic can blow them up twenty years from now. We need to get on the stick.
As I have noted many times - we are in a war for our very survival.
This just further delineates the what and the where.
bump to read later
Excellent article, as usual.
However, he himself fails if he believes that Islam will be content with another Cold War or stalemate situation. Either we attack them - represented by Iran - or they attack us, sooner rather than later. Anybody who believes Islam will simply hang out and wait doesn't know the history of Islam, which only retreats to its hole when it gets its teeth kicked down its throat.
Wretchard has written about this very extensively (and persuasively).
He says there's no way the Islamic world will be content with a cold war-type stalemate. If he doesn't make that point clear in this particular essay, it's probably only because he's made that point so often in his other writing. (I could provide you with links if you're really interested in this.)
Thanks, I thought he was being uncharacteristically optimistic on this point. Yes, do send links.
There's a, pardon, third way.
Through military action you hasten or enable or cause regime change.
He argues that if radical Muslims have nuclear weapons, the situation will be far different from the cold war. He argues that if Islamic terrorists get nukes, it will be the end of Islam -- either at our hands, or (more likely) from their own errors and internal nuclear warfare.
It is supremely ironic that the survival of the Islamic world should hinge on an American victory in the War on Terror, the last chance to prevent that terrible day in which all the decisions will have already been made for us.
If you like this article, I can also recommend Postscript to the Three Conjectures.
Now it is Islam coming face to face with a challenge of how to handle the true divine fire. And the real dilemma is that the power behind the light of the stars is incompatible with the framework bequeathed by Mohammed. It may be the turn of the Faithful to die by Islam's own hand unless it can listen to the word that speaks from the very heart of the flame.
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