AP Poll: Congressional Democrats Favored

AP ^ | 1/6/6 | Will Lester

[SmithL]

WASHINGTON -- In an ominous election-year sign for Republicans, Americans are leaning sharply toward giving Democrats control of Congress, an AP-Ipsos poll finds. Democrats are favored 49 percent to 36 percent.

The poll was taken this week as Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff pleaded guilty to tax evasion, fraud and corruption charges and agreed to aid a federal investigation of members of Congress and other government officials.

President Bush's job approval remains low — 40 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll. About as many approve of his handling of Iraq, where violence against Iraqis and U.S. troops has been surging.

"I don't think anyone is hitting the panic button," said Rich Bond, a former Republican National Committee chairman. "But there is an acute recognition of the grim environment that both parties are operating in."

"If the Democrats had any leadership or any message, they could be poised for a good year," Bond said. "But in the absence of that, they have not been able to capitalize on Republican woes. Because of the size of the GOP majority, Democrats have to run the board, and I don't see that happening."

[Txsleuth]

MNJohnnie...the GOP are their own worst enemies...

I just saw Rich Lowry on Gibson's show..and he was practically giddy about calling for the GOP in the House to take out Delay, even before knowing if he has done anything wrong..

IOW...he wants the GOP to do the dems dirty work....

I heard though...that Mark Levin and he are at odds with this..and Hannity is on Mark's side..

I haven't found a Hannity thread...but his show is about over anyway...

[AmericaUnited]

President Bush's job approval remains low — 40 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll

TOTAL, OVER SAMPLE/UNDER SAMPLE BS TO THE MAX!!!

[MNJohnnie]

Rich Lowery has pretty much exposed himself in the last 60 days as a pretend Conservative. Obviously another in the Closet Democrat who though this "Conservative Revolution" was his meal ticket. Either that or Hillary has a video of him and Andrew Sullivan in a bathhouse. Hard to know why he flipped.

[nosofar]

Its a long ways to November.

And plenty of time for the Democrats to *get* a message. Republicans can't be continually relying on Democrat screwups to keep them in office.

[Txsleuth]

LOL

[traviskicks]

I think congress is doing a horrible job, but that doesn't mean I'll vote democrat, it means i'll support the 'club for growth', which challenges RINO republicans in their primaries.

http://www.clubforgrowth.org/why.php

[dvwjr]

The latest Will Lester AP/Ipsos 'pollitorial'...

What changed from last month in December of 2005? Now their January sample of Republicans and Democrats are now seperated by 12 percentage points vs last month's sample where the difference was only 3%... In other words, the only way that AP/Ipsos could force Bush's numbers back to (ahem) 40% was by increasing the number of Democrats in the polling sample by 9 percentage points. Seems to work for them...

Just to add to the media polling bias, here is the recent history of the "ever-reliable" AP/Ipsos polls (January 2005 - January 2006) and their political Party ID sample composition for each poll. The AP/Ipsos polls push Independents to identify with either Republicans or Democrats, only the 'hard-core' remain as self-identified 'Independents'...

This is an mixed ADULTS and Registered Voters poll, not just registered voters. Note the consistant gap in the party ID between Democrats and Republicans, strange given the the 2004 Presidential Election exit polls identified 37% Republicans, 37% Democrats and 26% Independents among the voting American public. The Republicans have achieved voter self-indentification parity with the Democrats for the first time since the late 1920s.

This series of AP/Ipsos poll result on Presidential job approval and the American public views on the 'direction of the country' was as always based on a skewed demographic sample that averages 41% Republican, 49% Democrat and 10% Independent composition. I think that when the AP poll fails to get the results they desire, they 'play' with both the registered voters composition and vary the un-registered voter portion of the poll sample. Since the Registered voter portion of the poll averages around 78% and the 'breathing' voter averages around 22% you can see they have quite a bit of "statistical slack" to play with to get the results they require...

Presidential Approval Ratings
AP/Ipsos monthly Polls
(n~1,001 ± 3.1%)

	2006	2005	2005	2005	2005	2005	2005	2005	2005	2005	2005	2005	2005	2005	2005
	5-Jan	7-Dec	9-Nov	2-Nov	5-Oct	16-Sep	6-Sep	August	July	June	May	April	March	February	January
Republicans	40%	44%	40%	40%	40%	41%	42%	39%	42%	40%	42%	41%	39%	39%	43%
Democrats	52%	47%	51%	49%	48%	49%	48%	48%	51%	50%	49%	48%	47%	52%	49%
Independents	8%	9%	9%	11%	12%	10%	10%	13%	7%	10%	9%	11%	14%	9%	8%
Total:	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Registered	81%	78%	78%	80%	78%	77%	76%	79%	77%	80%	79%	82%	78%	76%	80%
Breathing	19%	22%	22%	20%	22%	23%	24%	21%	23%	20%	21%	18%	22%	24%	20%
Total:	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Approve	40%	42%	37%	37%	39%	40%	39%	42%	42%	43%	47%	44%	48%	45%	49%
Disapprove	59%	57%	61%	59%	58%	57%	59%	55%	56%	55%	51%	54%	50%	54%	49%
Total:	99%	99%	98%	96%	97%	97%	98%	97%	98%	98%	98%	98%	98%	99%	98%

Note: The AP/Ipsos polls are published in PDF format and become unavailable after one month. You must be a 'premium' member to access those PDF files on their web site. No consistant links are provided for that reason.

Source: AP-Ipsos Poll, January 3-5, 2006 Project #81-5139-72

Hope this helps,

dvwjr

[jveritas]

Excellent job as usual.

[DarthVader]

They would get an F in statistics. This is just pure push polling which is not a true representative sample. Pure garbage.

[JLGALT]

Thank you for your invaluable information. It surly shows why this polling organization should not be trusted!!!

[festus]

President Bush's job approval remains low — 40 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll.

40% with the heavy oversampling of dems in this poll is pretty darn good.

[nwrep]

Don't think they ever had GW in the lead all year.

Please, that is just plain wrong. The polls after the RNC convention all showed Bush with huge leads.

[nwrep]

And having said that, I do agree that this AP poll is nonsense.

[dvwjr]

Originally posted by: MNJohnnie

"Don't think they ever had GW in the lead all year."

No need to wonder...

Presidential Polling Data
Nine Media Polling Organizations
Year 2004

ABCNews/Washington Post Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Neither	Wont vote	No opinion
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
June 17-20, 2004	100.0%	29.8%	37.5%	32.7%	1,015 RV	43.74%	48.47%	5.81%	0.30%	0.69%	0.39%	0.59%
July 22-25, 2004	100.0%	33.1%	34.4%	32.5%	974 RV	47.51%	46.49%	2.52%	0.18%	1.49%	0.49%	1.32%
July 30- August 1, 2004	100.0%	28.6%	38.7%	32.7%	940 RV	44.26%	49.57%	2.13%	0.32%	1.28%	0.53%	1.91%
August 26-29, 2004	100.0%	32.9%	31.7%	35.3%	945 RV	48.47%	46.77%	1.59%	0.11%	0.95%	0.42%	1.69%
September 6-8, 2004	100.0%	35.2%	30.5%	34.3%	952 RV	50.21%	43.59%	2.00%	0.42%	1.79%	0.32%	1.68%
September 23-26, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.6%	31.4%	969 RV	50.57%	43.55%	1.96%	0.72%	0.93%	0.41%	1.86%
October 1-3, 2004	100.0%	36.3%	31.9%	31.8%	1,169 LV	51.25%	46.18%	0.59%	0.24%	0.67%	0.33%	0.73%
Switch to daily tracking poll
ARG Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters
July 1-3, 2004	100.0%	35.2%	38.8%	26.0%	773 RV	44.24%	47.35%	2.59%	5.82%
July 30-August 1, 2004	100.0%	35.1%	37.1%	27.8%	776 RV	44.97%	48.58%	2.06%	4.38%
August 30-September 1, 2004	100.0%	34.6%	37.1%	28.3%	1,014 RV	44.67%	45.96%	2.96%	6.41%
October 2-3, 2004	100.0%	34.8%	37.9%	27.3%	1,005 RV	43.88%	47.26%	2.09%	6.77%
Final - October 28-30, 2004	100.0%	35.3%	39.6%	25.1%	1,500 RV	47.60%	48.27%	1.20%	2.93%
CBS News Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont Vote	Depends	Do not know
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
May 20-23, 2004	100.0%	29.0%	34.0%	37.0%	883 RV	40.54%	46.55%	5.21%	0.68%	1.59%	0.57%	4.87%
July 11-15, 2004	100.0%	27.3%	34.2%	38.5%	789 RV	41.57%	45.25%	5.20%	0.38%	1.27%	1.52%	4.82%
July 30 - August 1, 2004	100.0%	35.3%	37.5%	27.1%	837 RV	42.51%	48.39%	2.99%	0.01%	0.37%	1.19%	4.54%
August 15-18, 20004	100.0%	36.4%	39.6%	24.0%	792 RV	45.08%	46.46%	1.01%	0.13%	0.63%	1.01%	5.68%
September 6-8, 2004	100.0%	34.4%	37.7%	27.9%	889 RV	48.71%	42.41%	1.35%	0.34%	0.67%	1.01%	5.51%
September 12-16, 2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.2%	28.0%	1,048 RV	49.90%	40.55%	2.96%	0.38%	1.15%	1.05%	4.01%
September 20-22, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	37.0%	27.1%	898 RV	49.44%	41.31%	2.23%	0.33%	1.34%	1.00%	4.34%
October 1-3, 2004	100.0%	31.8%	35.8%	32.3%	773 RV	47.22%	46.96%	1.55%	0.00%	0.52%	0.65%	3.10%
October 9-11, 2004	100.0%	32.7%	34.2%	33.1%	933 RV	48.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%
October 9-11, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	41.1%	19.9%	693 LV	47.62%	45.45%	1.59%	0.14%	0.72%	1.01%	3.46%
October 14-17, 2004	100.0%	32.5%	35.4%	32.1%	851 RV	45.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%
October 14-17, 2004	100.0%	38.4%	41.2%	20.4%	565 LV	47.43%	45.31%	2.12%	0.00%	0.88%	0.53%	3.72%
Final - October 28-30, 2004	100.0%	33.2%	33.3%	33.6%	824 RV	49.00%	46.00%	1.00%	1.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.00%
FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont Vote
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
July 20-21, 2004	100.0%	33.6%	38.6%	27.9%	900 RV	43.00%	42.44%	3.56%	10.44%	0.56%
August 3-4, 2004	100.0%	33.9%	38.0%	28.1%	900 RV	42.00%	46.00%	2.44%	8.89%	0.67%
August 24-25, 2004	100.0%	33.8%	36.2%	30.0%	1,000 LV	42.51%	43.83%	3.68%	9.51%	0.46%
September 7-8, 2004	100.0%	33.9%	37.5%	28.6%	1,000 LV	46.60%	42.80%	2.90%	7.30%	0.40%
September 21-22, 2004	100.0%	35.0%	37.7%	27.3%	1,000 LV	45.60%	41.80%	1.30%	11.10%	0.20%
October 3-4, 2004	100.0%	31.5%	39.6%	28.9%	1,000 LV	47.49%	45.00%	1.49%	5.51%	0.51%
October 17-18, 2004	100.0%	35.8%	36.6%	27.6%	1,000 LV	49.00%	42.00%	2.40%	6.60%	0.00%
October 27-28, 2004	100.0%	37.4%	35.1%	27.5%	1,200 LV	49.75%	44.75%	0.42%	5.08%	0.00%
Tracking - October 28-29, 2004	100.0%	34.8%	38.1%	27.2%	1,200 LV	47.42%	45.33%	0.58%	6.67%	0.00%
Tracking - October 29-30, 2004	100.0%	36.7%	36.3%	26.9%	1,200 LV	46.00%	46.25%	1.17%	6.58%	0.00%
Gallup Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters
May 7-9, 2004	100.0%	32.2%	34.1%	33.8%	877 RV	41.39%	46.41%	7.41%	4.79%
May 21-23, 2004	100.0%	34.8%	37.3%	28.0%	883 RV	44.05%	46.43%	5.55%	3.96%
June 3-6, 2004	100.0%	35.5%	37.7%	26.8%	896 RV	42.41%	45.42%	7.37%	4.80%
June 21-23, 2004	100.0%	34.1%	37.6%	28.2%	882 RV	44.90%	46.49%	5.56%	3.06%
July 8-11, 2004	100.0%	36.7%	37.4%	25.9%	891 RV	42.20%	49.61%	3.82%	4.38%
July 19-21, 2004	100.0%	40.5%	36.3%	23.1%	878 RV	43.39%	47.38%	4.90%	4.33%
July 30-August 1, 2004	100.0%	39.2%	38.3%	22.5%	916 RV	48.14%	46.94%	2.40%	2.51%
August 9-11, 2004	100.0%	38.6%	36.5%	25.0%	897 RV	45.71%	45.04%	5.13%	4.12%
August 23-25, 2004	100.0%	37.6%	33.9%	28.5%	876 RV	46.35%	46.23%	3.65%	3.77%
September 3-5, 2004	100.0%	38.2%	35.5%	26.2%	926 RV	48.49%	45.79%	3.56%	2.16%
September 13-15, 2004	100.0%	38.8%	33.0%	28.1%	935 RV	50.00%	42.00%	4.00%	4.00%
September 24-26, 2004	100.0%	39.8%	32.2%	28.0%	926 RV	52.59%	42.44%	3.13%	1.84%
October 1-3, 2004	100.0%	36.9%	36.6%	26.4%	934 RV	48.61%	47.43%	1.39%	2.57%
October 9-10, 2004	100.0%	36.5%	35.3%	28.3%	941 RV	47.61%	47.72%	1.38%	3.29%
October 14-16, 2004	100.0%	36.9%	34.7%	28.3%	942 RV	48.62%	46.07%	1.38%	3.93%
October 22-24, 2004	100.0%	36.2%	35.5%	28.3%	1,461 RV	49.14%	46.61%	0.96%	3.29%
Final - October 29-31, 2004	100.0%	34.6%	37.1%	28.3%	1,866 RV	46.14%	48.45%	0.80%	4.61%
	2.5%	-1.6%	1.6%
Los Angeles Times Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other/UDec	Dont Know
All polls Registered or Likely Voters
June 5-8, 2004	100.0%	25.9%	38.0%	36.1%	1,230 RV	42.49%	48.35%	4.14%	0.51%	4.51%
July 17-21, 2004	100.0%	31.7%	40.9%	27.3%	1,529 RV	43.56%	46.37%	3.07%	0.39%	6.61%
August 21-24, 2004	100.0%	32.0%	41.0%	27.0%	1,352 RV	46.60%	44.08%	3.40%	0.59%	5.33%
September 25-28, 2004	100.0%	36.5%	35.8%	27.6%	1,100 LV	50.55%	45.09%	2.36%	0.00%	2.00%
Final - October 21-24, 2004	100.0%	33.3%	38.9%	27.8%	881 LV	48.47%	48.24%	0.68%	0.00%	2.61%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Depends	None/Other	Not Sure
All polls Registered Voters
June 25-28, 2004	100.0%	38.0%	40.0%	22.0%	1,025 RV	45.00%	44.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	5.00%
July 19-21, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	40.0%	21.0%	813 RV	47.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	5.00%
August 23-25, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	38.0%	23.0%	806 RV	47.00%	45.00%	3.00%	0.00%	1.00%	4.00%
September 17-19, 2004	100.0%	39.0%	40.0%	21.0%	1,006 RV	48.00%	45.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	4.00%
October 16-18, 2004	100.0%	37.0%	41.0%	22.0%	1,004 RV	48.00%	46.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	3.00%
Final - October 29-31, 2004	100.0%	37.0%	38.0%	25.0%	1,014 LV	48.00%	47.00%	1.00%	0.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Note: All R/D/I numbers published by NBC/WSJ
Newsweek/PSRAI Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters
March 18-19, 2004	100.0%	35.9%	35.1%	29.0%	838 RV	45.47%	43.44%	5.49%	5.61%
May 13-14, 2004	100.0%	32.2%	36.9%	30.9%	832 RV	42.31%	43.27%	5.41%	9.01%
July 8-9, 2004	100.0%	34.4%	35.6%	30.0%	1,001 RV	44.36%	47.35%	2.70%	5.59%
July 29-30, 2004	100.0%	29.0%	38.5%	32.5%	1,010 RV	41.78%	49.41%	3.07%	5.74%
September 2-3, 2004	100.0%	35.8%	31.5%	32.6%	1,008 RV	52.38%	40.58%	3.37%	3.67%
September 9-10, 2004	100.0%	38.0%	31.4%	30.6%	1,003 RV	49.45%	42.67%	2.19%	5.68%
September 30 - October 2, 2004	100.0%	33.3%	36.9%	29.8%	1,013 RV	45.01%	46.59%	1.97%	6.42%
October 14-15, 2004	100.0%	36.2%	34.2%	29.7%	1,004 RV	48.31%	46.02%	1.10%	4.58%
October 21-22, 2004	100.0%	35.4%	35.2%	29.5%	1,008 RV	46.15%	46.49%	1.85%	5.51%
Final - October 27-29, 2004	100.0%	34.0%	36.2%	29.8%	1,005 RV	47.86%	44.48%	1.49%	6.17%
Time/SRBI Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Do not know	Refused
All polls Registered and/or Likely Voters
July 20-22, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.0%	32.0%	1,059 RV	43.00%	46.00%	5.00%	0.00%	5.00%	1.00%
August 3-5, 2004	100.0%	28.0%	36.0%	36.0%	1,001 RV	41.00%	45.00%	6.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%
August 24-26, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	32.0%	35.0%	1,026 RV	46.00%	42.00%	6.00%	0.00%	5.00%	2.00%
August 31-September 2, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	32.0%	32.0%	1,128 RV	49.00%	39.00%	5.00%	0.00%	4.00%	2.00%
September 7-9, 2004	100.0%	31.0%	32.0%	37.0%	1,013 RV	50.00%	39.00%	4.00%	0.00%	5.00%	1.00%
September 21-23, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	30.0%	34.0%	1,014 RV	46.00%	42.00%	6.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%
September 21-23, 2004	100.0%	36.0%	31.0%	33.0%	877 LV	48.00%	42.00%	5.00%	0.00%	3.00%	2.00%
October 6-7, 2004	100.0%	31.0%	36.0%	33.0%	1,024 RV	44.00%	43.00%	4.00%	0.00%	4.00%	3.00%
October 6-7, 2004	100.0%	32.0%	36.0%	32.0%	886 LV	45.00%	45.00%	3.00%	1.00%	3.00%	3.00%
October 14-15, 2004	100.0%	32.0%	37.0%	31.0%	1,000 RV	46.00%	46.00%	4.00%	0.00%	3.00%	1.00%
October 14-15, 2004	100.0%	35.0%	36.0%	29.0%	865 LV	48.00%	46.00%	3.00%	0.00%	3.00%	0.00%
October 19-21, 2004	100.0%	33.0%	35.0%	32.0%	1,059 RV	50.00%	43.00%	4.00%	0.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Final - October 19-21, 2004	100.0%	35.0%	35.0%	30.0%	803 LV	51.00%	46.00%	2.00%	0.00%	1.00%	0.00%
Note: All R/D/I numbers published by TIME/SRBI

Hope this helps,

dvwjr

[GOPJ]

Wasn't it the AP that pushed the "12 Miners Alive" lie?

[GOPJ]

Yawn. This poll always shows results like this, and then the election rolls around, and the House stays where it is while Republicans pick up most of the open seats.

It was the AP that said the 12 miners were alive...

[daybreakcoming]

Did anyone actually get paid in real money for this fraudulent poll? If so, we don't even need to guess at the signer of the check. Can we all say DNC ops?

[Reactionary]

Hey! Is there an election in 2006?

Somehow I knew that was it. It's odd how the evil Republicans are always about to get in big trouble just before they pick up seats.

I mean, that's only been going on since, oh... 1996 or so.