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AP Poll: Congressional Democrats Favored
AP ^ | 1/6/6 | Will Lester

Posted on 01/06/2006 1:18:03 PM PST by SmithL

WASHINGTON -- In an ominous election-year sign for Republicans, Americans are leaning sharply toward giving Democrats control of Congress, an AP-Ipsos poll finds. Democrats are favored 49 percent to 36 percent.

The poll was taken this week as Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff pleaded guilty to tax evasion, fraud and corruption charges and agreed to aid a federal investigation of members of Congress and other government officials.

President Bush's job approval remains low — 40 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll. About as many approve of his handling of Iraq, where violence against Iraqis and U.S. troops has been surging.

"I don't think anyone is hitting the panic button," said Rich Bond, a former Republican National Committee chairman. "But there is an acute recognition of the grim environment that both parties are operating in."

"If the Democrats had any leadership or any message, they could be poised for a good year," Bond said. "But in the absence of that, they have not been able to capitalize on Republican woes. Because of the size of the GOP majority, Democrats have to run the board, and I don't see that happening."

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 109th; appoll; corruption; jobapproval; polls; predictions
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To: MNJohnnie

MNJohnnie...the GOP are their own worst enemies...

I just saw Rich Lowry on Gibson's show..and he was practically giddy about calling for the GOP in the House to take out Delay, even before knowing if he has done anything wrong..

IOW...he wants the GOP to do the dems dirty work....

I heard though...that Mark Levin and he are at odds with this..and Hannity is on Mark's side..

I haven't found a Hannity thread...but his show is about over anyway...


61 posted on 01/06/2006 2:35:01 PM PST by Txsleuth (Official Snow Flake!)
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To: SmithL
President Bush's job approval remains low — 40 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll

TOTAL, OVER SAMPLE/UNDER SAMPLE BS TO THE MAX!!!

62 posted on 01/06/2006 2:42:35 PM PST by AmericaUnited
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To: Txsleuth
Rich Lowery has pretty much exposed himself in the last 60 days as a pretend Conservative. Obviously another in the Closet Democrat who though this "Conservative Revolution" was his meal ticket. Either that or Hillary has a video of him and Andrew Sullivan in a bathhouse. Hard to know why he flipped.
63 posted on 01/06/2006 2:49:24 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Marine Corp T-Shirt "Guns don't kill people. I kill people." {Both Arabic and English})
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To: goldstategop
Its a long ways to November.

And plenty of time for the Democrats to *get* a message. Republicans can't be continually relying on Democrat screwups to keep them in office.

64 posted on 01/06/2006 2:50:57 PM PST by nosofar
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To: MNJohnnie

LOL


65 posted on 01/06/2006 3:20:12 PM PST by Txsleuth (Official Snow Flake!)
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To: SmithL

I think congress is doing a horrible job, but that doesn't mean I'll vote democrat, it means i'll support the 'club for growth', which challenges RINO republicans in their primaries.

http://www.clubforgrowth.org/why.php


66 posted on 01/06/2006 4:11:58 PM PST by traviskicks (http://www.neoperspectives.com/secondaryproblemsofsocialism.htm)
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To: SmithL; NormsRevenge; day10; goldstategop; EagleUSA; JohnLongIsland; MNJohnnie; KC_Conspirator; ...
The latest Will Lester AP/Ipsos 'pollitorial'...

What changed from last month in December of 2005? Now their January sample of Republicans and Democrats are now seperated by 12 percentage points vs last month's sample where the difference was only 3%... In other words, the only way that AP/Ipsos could force Bush's numbers back to (ahem) 40% was by increasing the number of Democrats in the polling sample by 9 percentage points. Seems to work for them...

Just to add to the media polling bias, here is the recent history of the "ever-reliable" AP/Ipsos polls (January 2005 - January 2006) and their political Party ID sample composition for each poll. The AP/Ipsos polls push Independents to identify with either Republicans or Democrats, only the 'hard-core' remain as self-identified 'Independents'...

This is an mixed ADULTS and Registered Voters poll, not just registered voters. Note the consistant gap in the party ID between Democrats and Republicans, strange given the the 2004 Presidential Election exit polls identified 37% Republicans, 37% Democrats and 26% Independents among the voting American public. The Republicans have achieved voter self-indentification parity with the Democrats for the first time since the late 1920s.

This series of AP/Ipsos poll result on Presidential job approval and the American public views on the 'direction of the country' was as always based on a skewed demographic sample that averages 41% Republican, 49% Democrat and 10% Independent composition. I think that when the AP poll fails to get the results they desire, they 'play' with both the registered voters composition and vary the un-registered voter portion of the poll sample. Since the Registered voter portion of the poll averages around 78% and the 'breathing' voter averages around 22% you can see they have quite a bit of "statistical slack" to play with to get the results they require...


Presidential Approval Ratings
AP/Ipsos monthly Polls
(n~1,001 ± 3.1%)


  2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005
  5-Jan 7-Dec 9-Nov 2-Nov 5-Oct 16-Sep 6-Sep August July June May April March February January
Republicans 40% 44% 40% 40% 40% 41% 42% 39% 42% 40% 42% 41% 39% 39% 43%
Democrats 52% 47% 51% 49% 48% 49% 48% 48% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 52% 49%
Independents 8% 9% 9% 11% 12% 10% 10% 13% 7% 10% 9% 11% 14% 9% 8%
Total: 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
                               
Registered 81% 78% 78% 80% 78% 77% 76% 79% 77% 80% 79% 82% 78% 76% 80%
Breathing 19% 22% 22% 20% 22% 23% 24% 21% 23% 20% 21% 18% 22% 24% 20%
Total: 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
                               
Approve 40% 42% 37% 37% 39% 40% 39% 42% 42% 43% 47% 44% 48% 45% 49%
Disapprove 59% 57% 61% 59% 58% 57% 59% 55% 56% 55% 51% 54% 50% 54% 49%
Total: 99% 99% 98% 96% 97% 97% 98% 97% 98% 98% 98% 98% 98% 99% 98%


Note: The AP/Ipsos polls are published in PDF format and become unavailable after one month. You must be a 'premium' member to access those PDF files on their web site. No consistant links are provided for that reason.

Source: AP-Ipsos Poll, January 3-5, 2006 Project #81-5139-72

Hope this helps,

dvwjr

67 posted on 01/06/2006 5:25:19 PM PST by dvwjr
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To: dvwjr

Excellent job as usual.


68 posted on 01/06/2006 5:30:05 PM PST by jveritas (The Axis of Defeatism: Left wing liberals, Buchananites, and third party voters.)
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To: dvwjr

They would get an F in statistics. This is just pure push polling which is not a true representative sample. Pure garbage.


69 posted on 01/06/2006 5:51:09 PM PST by DarthVader (Do something positive for America today: Insult an America hating leftie.)
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To: dvwjr

Thank you for your invaluable information. It surly shows why this polling organization should not be trusted!!!


70 posted on 01/06/2006 6:23:25 PM PST by JLGALT
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To: SmithL
President Bush's job approval remains low — 40 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll.

40% with the heavy oversampling of dems in this poll is pretty darn good.
71 posted on 01/06/2006 7:12:32 PM PST by festus (The constitution may be flawed but its a whole lot better than what we have now.)
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To: MNJohnnie
Don't think they ever had GW in the lead all year.

Please, that is just plain wrong. The polls after the RNC convention all showed Bush with huge leads.

72 posted on 01/06/2006 7:56:06 PM PST by nwrep
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To: MNJohnnie

And having said that, I do agree that this AP poll is nonsense.


73 posted on 01/06/2006 7:59:54 PM PST by nwrep
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To: nwrep; MNJohnnie
Originally posted by: MNJohnnie
"Don't think they ever had GW in the lead all year."

No need to wonder...

Presidential Polling Data
Nine Media Polling Organizations
Year 2004




                         
                         
ABCNews/Washington Post Results   Republicans Democrats Independents N= Bush Kerry Nader Other Neither Wont vote No opinion
All polls Registered or Likely Voters                        
                         
June 17-20, 2004 100.0% 29.8% 37.5% 32.7% 1,015 RV 43.74% 48.47% 5.81% 0.30% 0.69% 0.39% 0.59%
July 22-25, 2004 100.0% 33.1% 34.4% 32.5% 974 RV 47.51% 46.49% 2.52% 0.18% 1.49% 0.49% 1.32%
July 30- August 1, 2004 100.0% 28.6% 38.7% 32.7% 940 RV 44.26% 49.57% 2.13% 0.32% 1.28% 0.53% 1.91%
August 26-29, 2004 100.0% 32.9% 31.7% 35.3% 945 RV 48.47% 46.77% 1.59% 0.11% 0.95% 0.42% 1.69%
September 6-8, 2004 100.0% 35.2% 30.5% 34.3% 952 RV 50.21% 43.59% 2.00% 0.42% 1.79% 0.32% 1.68%
September 23-26, 2004 100.0% 33.0% 35.6% 31.4% 969 RV 50.57% 43.55% 1.96% 0.72% 0.93% 0.41% 1.86%
October 1-3, 2004 100.0% 36.3% 31.9% 31.8% 1,169 LV 51.25% 46.18% 0.59% 0.24% 0.67% 0.33% 0.73%
Switch to daily tracking poll                        
                         
                         
                         
ARG Poll Results   Republicans Democrats Independents N= Bush Kerry Nader Other      
All polls Registered Voters                        
                         
July 1-3, 2004 100.0% 35.2% 38.8% 26.0% 773 RV 44.24% 47.35% 2.59% 5.82%      
July 30-August 1, 2004 100.0% 35.1% 37.1% 27.8% 776 RV 44.97% 48.58% 2.06% 4.38%      
August 30-September 1, 2004 100.0% 34.6% 37.1% 28.3% 1,014 RV 44.67% 45.96% 2.96% 6.41%      
October 2-3, 2004 100.0% 34.8% 37.9% 27.3% 1,005 RV 43.88% 47.26% 2.09% 6.77%      
Final - October 28-30, 2004 100.0% 35.3% 39.6% 25.1% 1,500 RV 47.60% 48.27% 1.20% 2.93%      
                         
                         
                         
CBS News Results   Republicans Democrats Independents N= Bush Kerry Nader Other Wont Vote Depends Do not know
All polls Registered or Likely Voters                        
                         
May 20-23, 2004 100.0% 29.0% 34.0% 37.0% 883 RV 40.54% 46.55% 5.21% 0.68% 1.59% 0.57% 4.87%
July 11-15, 2004 100.0% 27.3% 34.2% 38.5% 789 RV 41.57% 45.25% 5.20% 0.38% 1.27% 1.52% 4.82%
July 30 - August 1, 2004 100.0% 35.3% 37.5% 27.1% 837 RV 42.51% 48.39% 2.99% 0.01% 0.37% 1.19% 4.54%
August 15-18, 20004 100.0% 36.4% 39.6% 24.0% 792 RV 45.08% 46.46% 1.01% 0.13% 0.63% 1.01% 5.68%
September 6-8, 2004 100.0% 34.4% 37.7% 27.9% 889 RV 48.71% 42.41% 1.35% 0.34% 0.67% 1.01% 5.51%
September 12-16, 2004 100.0% 38.8% 33.2% 28.0% 1,048 RV 49.90% 40.55% 2.96% 0.38% 1.15% 1.05% 4.01%
September 20-22, 2004 100.0% 36.0% 37.0% 27.1% 898 RV 49.44% 41.31% 2.23% 0.33% 1.34% 1.00% 4.34%
October 1-3, 2004 100.0% 31.8% 35.8% 32.3% 773 RV 47.22% 46.96% 1.55% 0.00% 0.52% 0.65% 3.10%
October 9-11, 2004 100.0% 32.7% 34.2% 33.1% 933 RV 48.00% 45.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 1.00% 4.00%
October 9-11, 2004 100.0% 39.0% 41.1% 19.9% 693 LV 47.62% 45.45% 1.59% 0.14% 0.72% 1.01% 3.46%
October 14-17, 2004 100.0% 32.5% 35.4% 32.1% 851 RV 45.00% 45.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 1.00% 4.00%
October 14-17, 2004 100.0% 38.4% 41.2% 20.4% 565 LV 47.43% 45.31% 2.12% 0.00% 0.88% 0.53% 3.72%
Final - October 28-30, 2004 100.0% 33.2% 33.3% 33.6% 824 RV 49.00% 46.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.00%
                         
                         
                         
FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results   Republicans Democrats Independents N= Bush Kerry Nader Other Wont Vote    
All polls Registered or Likely Voters                        
                         
July 20-21, 2004 100.0% 33.6% 38.6% 27.9% 900 RV 43.00% 42.44% 3.56% 10.44% 0.56%    
August 3-4, 2004 100.0% 33.9% 38.0% 28.1% 900 RV 42.00% 46.00% 2.44% 8.89% 0.67%    
August 24-25, 2004 100.0% 33.8% 36.2% 30.0% 1,000 LV 42.51% 43.83% 3.68% 9.51% 0.46%    
September 7-8, 2004 100.0% 33.9% 37.5% 28.6% 1,000 LV 46.60% 42.80% 2.90% 7.30% 0.40%    
September 21-22, 2004 100.0% 35.0% 37.7% 27.3% 1,000 LV 45.60% 41.80% 1.30% 11.10% 0.20%    
October 3-4, 2004 100.0% 31.5% 39.6% 28.9% 1,000 LV 47.49% 45.00% 1.49% 5.51% 0.51%    
October 17-18, 2004 100.0% 35.8% 36.6% 27.6% 1,000 LV 49.00% 42.00% 2.40% 6.60% 0.00%    
October 27-28, 2004 100.0% 37.4% 35.1% 27.5% 1,200 LV 49.75% 44.75% 0.42% 5.08% 0.00%    
Tracking - October 28-29, 2004 100.0% 34.8% 38.1% 27.2% 1,200 LV 47.42% 45.33% 0.58% 6.67% 0.00%    
Tracking - October 29-30, 2004 100.0% 36.7% 36.3% 26.9% 1,200 LV 46.00% 46.25% 1.17% 6.58% 0.00%    
                         
                         
                         
Gallup Poll Results   Republicans Democrats Independents N= Bush Kerry Nader Other      
All polls Registered Voters                        
                         
May 7-9, 2004 100.0% 32.2% 34.1% 33.8% 877 RV 41.39% 46.41% 7.41% 4.79%      
May 21-23, 2004 100.0% 34.8% 37.3% 28.0% 883 RV 44.05% 46.43% 5.55% 3.96%      
June 3-6, 2004 100.0% 35.5% 37.7% 26.8% 896 RV 42.41% 45.42% 7.37% 4.80%      
June 21-23, 2004 100.0% 34.1% 37.6% 28.2% 882 RV 44.90% 46.49% 5.56% 3.06%      
July 8-11, 2004 100.0% 36.7% 37.4% 25.9% 891 RV 42.20% 49.61% 3.82% 4.38%      
July 19-21, 2004 100.0% 40.5% 36.3% 23.1% 878 RV 43.39% 47.38% 4.90% 4.33%      
July 30-August 1, 2004 100.0% 39.2% 38.3% 22.5% 916 RV 48.14% 46.94% 2.40% 2.51%      
August 9-11, 2004 100.0% 38.6% 36.5% 25.0% 897 RV 45.71% 45.04% 5.13% 4.12%      
August 23-25, 2004 100.0% 37.6% 33.9% 28.5% 876 RV 46.35% 46.23% 3.65% 3.77%      
September 3-5, 2004 100.0% 38.2% 35.5% 26.2% 926 RV 48.49% 45.79% 3.56% 2.16%      
September 13-15, 2004 100.0% 38.8% 33.0% 28.1% 935 RV 50.00% 42.00% 4.00% 4.00%      
September 24-26, 2004 100.0% 39.8% 32.2% 28.0% 926 RV 52.59% 42.44% 3.13% 1.84%      
October 1-3, 2004 100.0% 36.9% 36.6% 26.4% 934 RV 48.61% 47.43% 1.39% 2.57%      
October 9-10, 2004 100.0% 36.5% 35.3% 28.3% 941 RV 47.61% 47.72% 1.38% 3.29%      
October 14-16, 2004 100.0% 36.9% 34.7% 28.3% 942 RV 48.62% 46.07% 1.38% 3.93%      
October 22-24, 2004 100.0% 36.2% 35.5% 28.3% 1,461 RV 49.14% 46.61% 0.96% 3.29%      
Final - October 29-31, 2004 100.0% 34.6% 37.1% 28.3% 1,866 RV 46.14% 48.45% 0.80% 4.61%      
  2.5% -1.6% 1.6%                  
                         
                         
Los Angeles Times Results   Republicans Democrats Independents N= Bush Kerry Nader Other/UDec Dont Know    
All polls Registered or Likely Voters                        
                         
June 5-8, 2004 100.0% 25.9% 38.0% 36.1% 1,230 RV 42.49% 48.35% 4.14% 0.51% 4.51%    
July 17-21, 2004 100.0% 31.7% 40.9% 27.3% 1,529 RV 43.56% 46.37% 3.07% 0.39% 6.61%    
August 21-24, 2004 100.0% 32.0% 41.0% 27.0% 1,352 RV 46.60% 44.08% 3.40% 0.59% 5.33%    
September 25-28, 2004 100.0% 36.5% 35.8% 27.6% 1,100 LV 50.55% 45.09% 2.36% 0.00% 2.00%    
Final - October 21-24, 2004 100.0% 33.3% 38.9% 27.8% 881 LV 48.47% 48.24% 0.68% 0.00% 2.61%    
                         
                         
                         
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll Results   Republicans Democrats Independents N= Bush Kerry Nader Depends None/Other Not Sure  
All polls Registered Voters                        
                         
June 25-28, 2004 100.0% 38.0% 40.0% 22.0% 1,025 RV 45.00% 44.00% 4.00% 1.00% 1.00% 5.00%  
July 19-21, 2004 100.0% 39.0% 40.0% 21.0% 813 RV 47.00% 45.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 5.00%  
August 23-25, 2004 100.0% 39.0% 38.0% 23.0% 806 RV 47.00% 45.00% 3.00% 0.00% 1.00% 4.00%  
September 17-19, 2004 100.0% 39.0% 40.0% 21.0% 1,006 RV 48.00% 45.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 4.00%  
October 16-18, 2004 100.0% 37.0% 41.0% 22.0% 1,004 RV 48.00% 46.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 3.00%  
Final - October 29-31, 2004 100.0% 37.0% 38.0% 25.0% 1,014 LV 48.00% 47.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2.00% 2.00%  
                         
Note: All R/D/I numbers published by NBC/WSJ                        
                         
                         
Newsweek/PSRAI Poll Results   Republicans Democrats Independents N= Bush Kerry Nader Other      
All polls Registered Voters                        
                         
March 18-19, 2004 100.0% 35.9% 35.1% 29.0% 838 RV 45.47% 43.44% 5.49% 5.61%      
May 13-14, 2004 100.0% 32.2% 36.9% 30.9% 832 RV 42.31% 43.27% 5.41% 9.01%      
July 8-9, 2004 100.0% 34.4% 35.6% 30.0% 1,001 RV 44.36% 47.35% 2.70% 5.59%      
July 29-30, 2004 100.0% 29.0% 38.5% 32.5% 1,010 RV 41.78% 49.41% 3.07% 5.74%      
September 2-3, 2004 100.0% 35.8% 31.5% 32.6% 1,008 RV 52.38% 40.58% 3.37% 3.67%      
September 9-10, 2004 100.0% 38.0% 31.4% 30.6% 1,003 RV 49.45% 42.67% 2.19% 5.68%      
September 30 - October 2, 2004 100.0% 33.3% 36.9% 29.8% 1,013 RV 45.01% 46.59% 1.97% 6.42%      
October 14-15, 2004 100.0% 36.2% 34.2% 29.7% 1,004 RV 48.31% 46.02% 1.10% 4.58%      
October 21-22, 2004 100.0% 35.4% 35.2% 29.5% 1,008 RV 46.15% 46.49% 1.85% 5.51%      
Final - October 27-29, 2004 100.0% 34.0% 36.2% 29.8% 1,005 RV 47.86% 44.48% 1.49% 6.17%      
                         
                         
                         
Time/SRBI Poll Results   Republicans Democrats Independents N= Bush Kerry Nader Other Do not know Refused  
All polls Registered and/or Likely Voters                        
                         
July 20-22, 2004 100.0% 33.0% 35.0% 32.0% 1,059 RV 43.00% 46.00% 5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 1.00%  
August 3-5, 2004 100.0% 28.0% 36.0% 36.0% 1,001 RV 41.00% 45.00% 6.00% 1.00% 4.00% 2.00%  
August 24-26, 2004 100.0% 33.0% 32.0% 35.0% 1,026 RV 46.00% 42.00% 6.00% 0.00% 5.00% 2.00%  
August 31-September 2, 2004 100.0% 36.0% 32.0% 32.0% 1,128 RV 49.00% 39.00% 5.00% 0.00% 4.00% 2.00%  
September 7-9, 2004 100.0% 31.0% 32.0% 37.0% 1,013 RV 50.00% 39.00% 4.00% 0.00% 5.00% 1.00%  
September 21-23, 2004 100.0% 36.0% 30.0% 34.0% 1,014 RV 46.00% 42.00% 6.00% 1.00% 4.00% 2.00%  
September 21-23, 2004 100.0% 36.0% 31.0% 33.0% 877 LV 48.00% 42.00% 5.00% 0.00% 3.00% 2.00%  
October 6-7, 2004 100.0% 31.0% 36.0% 33.0% 1,024 RV 44.00% 43.00% 4.00% 0.00% 4.00% 3.00%  
October 6-7, 2004 100.0% 32.0% 36.0% 32.0% 886 LV 45.00% 45.00% 3.00% 1.00% 3.00% 3.00%  
October 14-15, 2004 100.0% 32.0% 37.0% 31.0% 1,000 RV 46.00% 46.00% 4.00% 0.00% 3.00% 1.00%  
October 14-15, 2004 100.0% 35.0% 36.0% 29.0% 865 LV 48.00% 46.00% 3.00% 0.00% 3.00% 0.00%  
October 19-21, 2004 100.0% 33.0% 35.0% 32.0% 1,059 RV 50.00% 43.00% 4.00% 0.00% 2.00% 1.00%  
Final - October 19-21, 2004 100.0% 35.0% 35.0% 30.0% 803 LV 51.00% 46.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1.00% 0.00%  
                         
Note: All R/D/I numbers published by TIME/SRBI                        
                         



Hope this helps,

dvwjr

74 posted on 01/06/2006 8:15:16 PM PST by dvwjr
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To: SmithL

Wasn't it the AP that pushed the "12 Miners Alive" lie?


75 posted on 01/06/2006 8:19:37 PM PST by GOPJ
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To: HostileTerritory
Yawn. This poll always shows results like this, and then the election rolls around, and the House stays where it is while Republicans pick up most of the open seats.

It was the AP that said the 12 miners were alive...

76 posted on 01/06/2006 8:20:38 PM PST by GOPJ
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To: SmithL

Did anyone actually get paid in real money for this fraudulent poll? If so, we don't even need to guess at the signer of the check. Can we all say DNC ops?


77 posted on 01/08/2006 11:38:24 AM PST by daybreakcoming (May God bless those who enter the valley of the shadow of death so that we may see the light of day.)
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To: SmithL
Hey! Is there an election in 2006?

Somehow I knew that was it. It's odd how the evil Republicans are always about to get in big trouble just before they pick up seats.

I mean, that's only been going on since, oh... 1996 or so.

78 posted on 01/08/2006 11:52:41 AM PST by Reactionary (The Liberal Social Order is a Hedonistic Idiocy)
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