Tarrance/Cook Report: McCain/Guiliani Lead GOP '08 Pack; Hillary Leads Dems; Bush Approve @ 42%

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll ^ | December 13, 2005

[RWR8189]

1. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President? (IF

APPROVE/DISAPPROVE, ASK:) Is that strongly (APPROVE/DISAPPROVE), or only somewhat?

(IF NOT SURE/REFUSED/MIXED, ASK:) Well, do you lean more toward approve or disapprove

when it comes to his performance as President?

ADULTS

Total Approve........................................... 42

Total Disapprove ...................................... 55

<SNIP>

3. Now, thinking about the election for U.S Congress in November 2006, regardless of how you might

plan to vote in your own district, which party would you like to see in control of Congress after the

congressional elections a year from now. (ROTATE:) the Democrats or the Republicans?

ALL ADULTS

Democrats...................... 49

Republicans.................... 38

Neither.......................... 13

4. Now if you had to make a choice today, in thinking about the election for President in November

2008, do you think you will vote for the (ROTATE:) Democratic or the Republican candidate for

President?

ALL ADULTS

Democratic candidate ..... 45

Republican candidate...... 32

Neither.......................... 23

<SNIP>

6. In national politics do you consider yourself (RANDOMIZE:) a Democrat, a Republican, an

Independent, or none of these? (IF DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN ASK:) Do you consider yourself

strongly (Democratic/Republican) or only moderately (Democratic/Republican). (IF

INDEPENDENT/NONE OF THESE, ASK:) Do lean more toward the (ROTATE:) Democratic or

Republican Party?

Republican .......................................... 30

Independent ........................................ 34

Democrat............................................. 33

<SNIP>

(ASKED ONLY OF THOSE WHO SAY THEY ARE DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.)

D-2. I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Democratic nomination for President in 2008,

and I will read the list twice. I would like you to tell me who would be your FIRST CHOICE for the

nomination? And who would be your SECOND CHOICE? (RANDOMIZE:)

1ST CHOICE

Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Senator from New York ....... 33 

John Kerry, the Senator from Massachusetts.................. 17 

John Edwards, former candidate for Vice President ........ 15 

Joe Biden, the Senator from Delaware ........................... 7 

Bill Richardson, the Governor of New Mexico ................. 4

Russ Feingold, the Senator from Wisconsin.................... 4 

Mark Warner, the Governor of Virginia............................ 4 

Wesley Clark, retired general ......................................... 3

Evan Bayh, the Senator from Indiana ............................. 3

Tom Vilsack, the Governor of Iowa................................. - 1

Not sure ...................................................................... 11

(ASKED ONLY OF THOSE WHO SAY THEY ARE DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.)

D-2a. IF CLINTON DOES NOT RUN?

RECALCULATED BASED ON 2ND CHOICE OF CLINTON

VOTERS:

IF CLINTON DOES NOT RUN

Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Senator from New York ....... NA

John Kerry, the Senator from Massachusetts.................. 28

John Edwards, former candidate for Vice President ........ 23

Joe Biden, the Senator from Delaware ........................... 9

Russ Feingold, the Senator from Wisconsin ................... 6

Bill Richardson, the Governor of New Mexico ................. 6

Wesley Clark, retired general ......................................... 5

Mark Warner, the Governor of Virginia ........................... 5

Evan Bayh, the Senator from Indiana............................. 4

Tom Vilsack, the Governor of Iowa................................. -

Not sure ...................................................................... 14

 

(ASKED ONLY OF THOSE WHO SAY THEY ARE REPUBLICAN OR REPUBLICAN LEANERS.)

R-2. I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Republican nomination for President in 2008,

and I will read the list twice. I would like you to tell me who would be your FIRST CHOICE for the

nomination? And who would be your SECOND CHOICE? (RANDOMIZE:)

1ST CHOICE

John McCain, the Senator from Arizona.................... 25

Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York City..... 25

Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House....... 12

Bill Frist, the Senator from Tennessee ...................... 5

Rick Santorum, the Senator from Pennsylvania......... 4

Mitt Romney, the Governor of Massachusetts ........... 4

George Allen, the Senator from Virginia.................... 3

George Pataki, the Governor of New York ................ 3

Mike Huckabee, the Governor of Arkansas ............... 2

Mark Sanford, the Governor of South Carolina.......... 2

Chuck Hagel, the Senator from Nebraska................. 2

Sam Brownback, the Senator from Kansas............... 1

Tim Pawlenty, the Governor of Minnesota................. - 1

Not sure................................................................. 14

 

(ASKED ONLY OF THOSE WHO SAY THEY ARE REPUBLICAN OR REPUBLICAN LEANERS.)

R-2a. IF GIULIANI DOES NOT RUN?

RECALCULATED BASED ON

2ND CHOICE OF GIULIANI

VOTERS:

IF GIULIANI DOES NOT RUN

Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York City.................... NA

John McCain, the Senator from Arizona................................... 30

Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House ..................... 16

Bill Frist, the Senator from Tennessee..................................... 7

George Pataki, the Governor of New York ............................... 6

Mitt Romney, the Governor of Massachusetts.......................... 5

Rick Santorum, the Senator from Pennsylvania ....................... 5

George Allen, the Senator from Virginia................................... 5

Chuck Hagel, the Senator from Nebraska................................ 2

Mike Huckabee, the Governor of Arkansas.............................. 2

Mark Sanford, the Governor of South Carolina......................... 2

Sam Brownback, the Senator from Kansas.............................. 1

Tim Pawlenty, the Governor of Minnesota ............................... -

Not sure ............................................................................... 18

 

(ASKED ONLY OF THOSE WHO SAY THEY ARE REPUBLICAN OR REPUBLICAN LEANERS.)

R-2b. IF McCAIN DOES NOT RUN?

RECALCULATED BASED ON 2ND

CHOICE OF MCCAIN VOTERS:

IF MCCAIN DOES NOT RUN

John McCain, the Senator from Arizona.................... NA

Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York City ..... 33

Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House....... 15

Bill Frist, the Senator from Tennessee....................... 7

Rick Santorum, the Senator from Pennsylvania......... 6

Mitt Romney, the Governor of Massachusetts ........... 6

George Pataki, the Governor of New York................. 5

George Allen, the Senator from Virginia .................... 4

Mike Huckabee, the Governor of Arkansas................ 3

Mark Sanford, the Governor of South Carolina .......... 2

Chuck Hagel, the Senator from Nebraska ................. 2

Sam Brownback, the Senator from Kansas ............... 2

Tim Pawlenty, the Governor of Minnesota................. -

Not sure................................................................. 17

 

 

[RWR8189]

Just some highlights of poll, its hard to copy and paste being its a PDF file.

I always stop and pay attention to polls Tarrance has a part in, he has been one of the consistently best pollsters around for many years, and was within a few tenths of a percentage point last year between Bush and Kerry.

Charles Cook always provides excellent poltical analysis as well.

[sittnick]

This poll is meaningless. It only tracks name-recognition. Primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire in both parties will be more familiar with the Allens, Brownbacks, Warners and Richardsons.

If the Dems were smart they'd put Warner or Bayh at the top, and Richardson as Veep.

[sittnick]

How did Vilsack get a NEGATIVE poll number?!

[Sir Francis Dashwood]

More pipe dreams from the liberals that they can be in the driver's seat for the Republican primary...

Giuliani and McCain don't have a snowball's chance in Perdition...

Jeb Bush will wipe the floor with anyone if he wants it... and so far nobody has really said they do...

[sgtbono2002]

I wont vote for McCain. We dont need a Manchurian Candidate.

[StatenIsland]

I'm a whole lot less concerned about Presidential nominees then I am about the '06 Congressional races.

It seems that the squeaky wheel gets the grease, at least in the polling. An average non-political American, one who doesn't feel passion for his party - or has no interest in even belonging to a party - seems to lean toward a Democrat Congress, even if only to stop the noise.

It reminds me a bit of another post, which tells of a nine-inch noise-producing box that causes gangs of teenagers to move away from shop entrances.

Well, the MSM and the Left are the noise-producing box, and I'm afraid that America will put these creeps back in power rather than listen to the din for another 2 to 6 years.

God help us all.

[jmaroneps37]

Meaningless. Anyone who thinks Rudy who? and/or mcpain (media Az) will be on our ticket is on drugs.
There are these little problems called primaries. In our primaries those who care about such things as not having Partial Birth Abortion or gay "marriage and having genuine party loyalty vote.
When the dust clears we will have George Allen on top and if he picks Ken Blackwell we will smash the evil donkey.

[Real Cynic No More]

With Bush at 42% approval rating, he's only one point away from the 43% of the vote that Clinton received in the '92 Presidential election. That 43% is a much better indicator of the voting public's approval rating than any non-binding poll could ever be.

[abb]

I don't quite agree. Charlie Cook is a Dem shill masquerading as "objective." He used to be J. Bennett Johnston's (D LA) admin asst. He even missed calling the '94 takeover of the house and senate.

Add about 5% to any republican he polls...

[bray]

Another phony poll from the Stone Age Press. In related news, water is wet, Pope still Catholic and bears...

Pray for W and Our Freedom Fighters

[jmaroneps37]

StatenIsland:
THERE IS NOT A SINGLE CHANCE THAT THE RATS WILL WIN CONTROL OF THE CONGRESS, NOT ONE.
Any time/effort/money you would use worrying about a rat take over of congress would be better used trying to expand our lead over the minority party.

[wolfcreek]

I choose J. McCain, the Senator from Arizona: N/A (RINO DELUXE)

[StatenIsland]

"THERE IS NOT A SINGLE CHANCE THAT THE RATS WILL WIN CONTROL OF THE CONGRESS, NOT ONE."

Thanks. I needed that.

[Prophet in the wilderness]

Allen/Blackwell 2008 or Allen/Steele 2008

[Prophet in the wilderness]

"THERE IS NOT A SINGLE CHANCE THAT THE RATS WILL WIN CONTROL OF THE CONGRESS, NOT ONE." ..........
Not only that,,,, but, it will be even a bigger up hill battle for the DEMS after the scandal of Able Danger is brought to light to all Americans,,,,,, this is a true scandal compared to the bogus and figment of their imagination scandals that the DEMS came up with against the BUSH administration and the Republicans.