Posted on 12/05/2005 11:16:49 AM PST by West Coast Conservative
Geopolitical limitations render Israel's air force militarily incapable of halting Iran's nuclear weapons program according to a new report published the by U.S. Army War College.
The report asserts Israel lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets. The report said the Israel Air Force cannot operate at such long distances from its bases.
"The Israeli Air Force has formidable capabilities and enjoys unchallenged supremacy vis-à-vis the other Middle East air powers, but Israel has no aircraft carriers and it cannot use airbases in other Middle East states," the report entitled "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran," said. "Therefore its operational capabilities are reduced when the targets are located far from its territory." [On Sunday, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz warned that diplomatic pressure would not stop Iran's nuclear weapons program, Middle East Newsline reported. Halutz was one of three senior Israeli officials who warned that Iran would soon be able to turn into a nuclear power.]
In an article authored by Shlomo Brom, former head of air force strategic planning, the report said Israel's deep-strike air capability was based on the F-15I and F-16C/D aircraft. At a range of more than 600 kilometers, Brom said, Israel could not sustain an air campaign. Iran is about 1,000 kilometers from Israel.
"It is possible to determine that at long ranges — more then 600 kilometers — the IAF is capable of a few surgical strikes, but it is not capable of a sustained air campaign against a full array of targets," the report said.
An Israeli air attack on Iran must also include such support aircraft as air refueling, electronic countermeasures, support, communication, and rescue, the report said. The mission would also require precision intelligence.
Brom said Israel's intelligence and military community was divided over the Iranian threat. He said military intelligence regards Iran as determined to destroy Israel. The Mossad and National Security Council see Teheran as preoccupied with national defense and regime survival.
"While the first school assumes no political pressure can force Iran to stop its military nuclear program, the other school believes that political pressure can be effective in at least delaying the nuclear program significantly," the report said. "The second school believes that a nuclear Iran with a different regime will not pose a high risk to Israel and can be easily deterred."
The report said the Bushehr nuclear power plant was vulnerable to attacks but does not constitute a key element of the military nuclear program. As a result, the destruction of Bushehr would not have a significant effect on Iran's military program.
Brom said Iranian nuclear assets are located between 1,500 and 1,700 kilometers from Israel. The report expressed doubts whether such Israeli allies as India and Turkey would allow Israel to launch a military strike from their territory.
"This means that the Israeli attack aircraft would have to take off from air bases in Israel, fly 1,500-1,700 kilometers to the targets, destroy them, and then fly back 1,500-1,700 kilometers," the report said.
The Israel Air Force has 25 F-15I and 137 F-16C/D fighter-bombers. The air force has already received more than 20 F-16Is, with longer range on the F-15I, but the report said the F-15I aircraft contains greater capabilities at long ranges.
The report said the F-15I has an operational radius of 1,270 kilometers. The F-16I has an operational radius of 2,100 kilometers while that of the F-16C/D is 925 kilometers.
But the report said the real operational radius was shorter because the planes would have to fly at low altitude to avoid radar detection. Brom said the Israeli aircraft could avoid Iranian air defense but would be detected.
"In any case, any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear target would be a very complex operation in which a relatively large number of attack aircraft and support aircraft — interceptors, ECM [electronic counter-measures] aircraft, refuelers, and rescue aircraft — would participate," the report said. "The conclusion is that Israel could attack only a few Iranian targets and not as part of a sustainable operation over time, but as a one time surprise operation."
Unfortunately, the same thing can be said about the threat that the US faces from its Islamofascist adversaries, who will not be constrained by conventional thinking or deterred by traditional means of defense.
Israel has a population of only a little over 6 million, including the enemies that our State Dept. orders Israel to accomodate and give free run through its neighborhoods.
Iran has a population of over 68 million, and it has oil. It also has the military support of two much larger countries.
Israel shouldn't do western Europe's dirty work or continue to be the unreasonable, inappropriate focus of the world that hates it. Nor should we. Israel can make much better use of its small revenues than to plan and launch thousands of air sorties. IMO, Israel should build the greatest defense and offense and let western Europe worry about being within range of Iran.
Iran postures at Israel but will go after western Europe. Iran might even lob something at Israel to further cow western Europe. But there is nothing for Iran in wasting Israel. Western Europe is the real target and should put the Iran government and military down.
They're going to need those pilots and jets in the days following an attack on Iran. To be without will invite Arab "adventurism"
Loan Israel a carrier. Over here in Bremerton, WA we have three or four in mothballs. Let em have one of these that are simply going to rust away anyway.
Good idea. Used to fly the Buffs.
I know some guys that would do the flying duties.. interested?
Ah, but a preemptive strike may take many forms. Direct air bombardment of the nuclear production facilities is not the only kind of preemptive strike that can be conceived. In fact, since the Iranians have apparently dispersed and hardened those facilities, direct bombardment may be ineffective. That leaves the door open for other avenues, including, but not limited to, sabotage from within (and other forms of "work accidents"), elimination of key personnel, and various other intrigues...
read this book:
Raid on the Sun : Inside Israel's Secret Campaign that Denied Saddam the Bomb (Hardcover)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0767914007/104-1862586-6483169?v=glance&n=283155
It will fill you in on all the details.
Fredo
Read that it was an excellent book
Scary, huh?
You think that's scary?
If they hold off a couple years, what would President Hillary!™ Do?
Israel is capable of doing what it needs to do. God watches over them, helping them in their time of need. God never forgets his promises.
And that was in 1981. A lot of sophistication has been developed by the Iranians in the meantime.
As to the question of getting at the underground and hardened sites - I'm thinking that successive nukes - delivered right on top of each other should help.
Hang on a second while a I transfer you over to John McCain's extension...[sarcasm on]
hey...thanx
I am PRETTY sure they have diesel submarines armed with a home grown version of the American cruise missle.
If any of the targets are withing 100 miles of the ocean, I imagine they are viable sub targets.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.