Posted on 12/05/2005 11:16:49 AM PST by West Coast Conservative
Geopolitical limitations render Israel's air force militarily incapable of halting Iran's nuclear weapons program according to a new report published the by U.S. Army War College.
The report asserts Israel lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets. The report said the Israel Air Force cannot operate at such long distances from its bases.
"The Israeli Air Force has formidable capabilities and enjoys unchallenged supremacy vis-à-vis the other Middle East air powers, but Israel has no aircraft carriers and it cannot use airbases in other Middle East states," the report entitled "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran," said. "Therefore its operational capabilities are reduced when the targets are located far from its territory." [On Sunday, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz warned that diplomatic pressure would not stop Iran's nuclear weapons program, Middle East Newsline reported. Halutz was one of three senior Israeli officials who warned that Iran would soon be able to turn into a nuclear power.]
In an article authored by Shlomo Brom, former head of air force strategic planning, the report said Israel's deep-strike air capability was based on the F-15I and F-16C/D aircraft. At a range of more than 600 kilometers, Brom said, Israel could not sustain an air campaign. Iran is about 1,000 kilometers from Israel.
"It is possible to determine that at long ranges — more then 600 kilometers — the IAF is capable of a few surgical strikes, but it is not capable of a sustained air campaign against a full array of targets," the report said.
An Israeli air attack on Iran must also include such support aircraft as air refueling, electronic countermeasures, support, communication, and rescue, the report said. The mission would also require precision intelligence.
Brom said Israel's intelligence and military community was divided over the Iranian threat. He said military intelligence regards Iran as determined to destroy Israel. The Mossad and National Security Council see Teheran as preoccupied with national defense and regime survival.
"While the first school assumes no political pressure can force Iran to stop its military nuclear program, the other school believes that political pressure can be effective in at least delaying the nuclear program significantly," the report said. "The second school believes that a nuclear Iran with a different regime will not pose a high risk to Israel and can be easily deterred."
The report said the Bushehr nuclear power plant was vulnerable to attacks but does not constitute a key element of the military nuclear program. As a result, the destruction of Bushehr would not have a significant effect on Iran's military program.
Brom said Iranian nuclear assets are located between 1,500 and 1,700 kilometers from Israel. The report expressed doubts whether such Israeli allies as India and Turkey would allow Israel to launch a military strike from their territory.
"This means that the Israeli attack aircraft would have to take off from air bases in Israel, fly 1,500-1,700 kilometers to the targets, destroy them, and then fly back 1,500-1,700 kilometers," the report said.
The Israel Air Force has 25 F-15I and 137 F-16C/D fighter-bombers. The air force has already received more than 20 F-16Is, with longer range on the F-15I, but the report said the F-15I aircraft contains greater capabilities at long ranges.
The report said the F-15I has an operational radius of 1,270 kilometers. The F-16I has an operational radius of 2,100 kilometers while that of the F-16C/D is 925 kilometers.
But the report said the real operational radius was shorter because the planes would have to fly at low altitude to avoid radar detection. Brom said the Israeli aircraft could avoid Iranian air defense but would be detected.
"In any case, any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear target would be a very complex operation in which a relatively large number of attack aircraft and support aircraft — interceptors, ECM [electronic counter-measures] aircraft, refuelers, and rescue aircraft — would participate," the report said. "The conclusion is that Israel could attack only a few Iranian targets and not as part of a sustainable operation over time, but as a one time surprise operation."
they could take off from one of ours in the gulf. no one would have to know. this is stupid. get a boomer off the coast of "persia".
The Entebbe raid did not require a strike force of jets protected by high cover and ECM aircraft either....
When God is on your side, no temporal evil is unforgivable.
I always said that Israel should be made a protectorate of the US and any atttack on it would be an attack on the sovereign power of the United Staes. That relation should be for no less than one hundred years.
Regretfully, I disagree. It is the nature of the Democrat to appease. There would be a diplomatic threat, but no punitive military action.
Or in other words: If Israel was struck by three nuclear weapons from Iran, what would (A) Jimmy Carter, (B) Bill Clinton, (C) John Kerry do?
Scary, huh?
Yeah, it is scary and you may be right. My feeling is that millions of Americans would DEMAND a counterstrike and even a Democratic president would be forced to do so. Maybe not.
Paraphrasing Dr. Strangelove "What good is a Doomsday device if no one knows you have one?!"
perhaps after such a strike the Israeli pilots could land at Bagdad Int Airport and we could intern them and their planes to punish those evil Zionists for a week. everbody said that they could not bomb Osirak too.
It works both ways. The Iranians would have a much more difficult time retaliating. The Israelis could use in-flight refueling and stand off cruise missiles/smart bombs.
misinformation... letting Iranians get cozy and then Israel does a nice strike
Yes they will.
Not.
Maybe the do, maybe they don't. Check this out.
A quote from the link reads: "While the subs are likely more important as a nuclear deterrent to land-based attacks, the Dolphin submarines offers Israel superior naval capabilities to its neighbors, as well."
Semper Fi
oops..yep...thanx
How many Israeli pilots WOULDN'T volunteer for a one way flight in order to save the country from getting nuked?
I was thinking of that too. Have a barge out to sea that they ditch near.
In May 2000, Israel is reported to have secretly carried out its first test launches from two German-built Dolphin-class submarines of cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The missiles launched from vessels off Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean are said to have hit a target at a range of about 1,500 kilometers [about 930 statute miles]. Israel is reported to possess a 200kg nuclear warhead, containing 6kg of plutonium, that could be mounted on cruise missiles.
Israel has reportedly developed an air-launched cruise missile that could be operational by 2002, called the Popeye Turbo. The Popeye Turbo, with a range that is variously reported at between 200 km and 350 km, would appear to represent a turbo-jet powered cruise missile that may incorporate avionics and other components developed for the Popeye family of missiles. The AGM-142 HAVE NAP is a variant of the Israeli Air Force "Popeye" missile, which uses a solid propellant rocket motor. The Popeye II, also known as the Have Lite, is a smaller missile with more advanced technology. Designed for deployment on fighter aircraft, Popeye II has a range of 150 kilometers.
ISRAEL CAN STOP THE IRAN NUKES!
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