Israel has various ABM defenses to counter either Iran, Syria or another threat from the Islamic world.
Bring it on Mullahs......
Posted on 12/05/2005 11:16:49 AM PST by West Coast Conservative
Geopolitical limitations render Israel's air force militarily incapable of halting Iran's nuclear weapons program according to a new report published the by U.S. Army War College.
The report asserts Israel lacks the military capability to locate and destroy Iranian nuclear assets. The report said the Israel Air Force cannot operate at such long distances from its bases.
"The Israeli Air Force has formidable capabilities and enjoys unchallenged supremacy vis-à-vis the other Middle East air powers, but Israel has no aircraft carriers and it cannot use airbases in other Middle East states," the report entitled "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran," said. "Therefore its operational capabilities are reduced when the targets are located far from its territory." [On Sunday, Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz warned that diplomatic pressure would not stop Iran's nuclear weapons program, Middle East Newsline reported. Halutz was one of three senior Israeli officials who warned that Iran would soon be able to turn into a nuclear power.]
In an article authored by Shlomo Brom, former head of air force strategic planning, the report said Israel's deep-strike air capability was based on the F-15I and F-16C/D aircraft. At a range of more than 600 kilometers, Brom said, Israel could not sustain an air campaign. Iran is about 1,000 kilometers from Israel.
"It is possible to determine that at long ranges — more then 600 kilometers — the IAF is capable of a few surgical strikes, but it is not capable of a sustained air campaign against a full array of targets," the report said.
An Israeli air attack on Iran must also include such support aircraft as air refueling, electronic countermeasures, support, communication, and rescue, the report said. The mission would also require precision intelligence.
Brom said Israel's intelligence and military community was divided over the Iranian threat. He said military intelligence regards Iran as determined to destroy Israel. The Mossad and National Security Council see Teheran as preoccupied with national defense and regime survival.
"While the first school assumes no political pressure can force Iran to stop its military nuclear program, the other school believes that political pressure can be effective in at least delaying the nuclear program significantly," the report said. "The second school believes that a nuclear Iran with a different regime will not pose a high risk to Israel and can be easily deterred."
The report said the Bushehr nuclear power plant was vulnerable to attacks but does not constitute a key element of the military nuclear program. As a result, the destruction of Bushehr would not have a significant effect on Iran's military program.
Brom said Iranian nuclear assets are located between 1,500 and 1,700 kilometers from Israel. The report expressed doubts whether such Israeli allies as India and Turkey would allow Israel to launch a military strike from their territory.
"This means that the Israeli attack aircraft would have to take off from air bases in Israel, fly 1,500-1,700 kilometers to the targets, destroy them, and then fly back 1,500-1,700 kilometers," the report said.
The Israel Air Force has 25 F-15I and 137 F-16C/D fighter-bombers. The air force has already received more than 20 F-16Is, with longer range on the F-15I, but the report said the F-15I aircraft contains greater capabilities at long ranges.
The report said the F-15I has an operational radius of 1,270 kilometers. The F-16I has an operational radius of 2,100 kilometers while that of the F-16C/D is 925 kilometers.
But the report said the real operational radius was shorter because the planes would have to fly at low altitude to avoid radar detection. Brom said the Israeli aircraft could avoid Iranian air defense but would be detected.
"In any case, any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear target would be a very complex operation in which a relatively large number of attack aircraft and support aircraft — interceptors, ECM [electronic counter-measures] aircraft, refuelers, and rescue aircraft — would participate," the report said. "The conclusion is that Israel could attack only a few Iranian targets and not as part of a sustainable operation over time, but as a one time surprise operation."
My dad's first introduction to the Japanese was when one flew just over his head and crashed on top of the #3 turret of the Maryland.
He still clearly remembers watching that 500 lb bomb on the bottom of the plane...
I agree re the Iranians bringing an attack on themselves with recent utterances...but while a conventional attack can be justified, a first off pre-emptive nuke strike wouldn't be. The hatred you now see for Israel would be dwarfed by the post-war situation in that scenario. No moderate Arab government (Or secular dictatorships in our camp, ie Indonesia, etc) would survive. All Arab and Islamic states would focus on Israel, evenb the ones who have bnever really cared...ie Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.
Israel can get away with nukes only when they're attacked first or when they can visibly act against an attack which is evident. Most people still see the Iranian speech as saber-ratting...Heavy conventional attacks...yes....coup....yes...assassination....yes...nukes - only if Israel wants to open itself up to a worse strategic situation.
"Suitcase nukes" have been misrepresented by the media examples. They would be harder to smuggle in than presented, and they wouldn't kill very many people. But a terrorist attack with those against people would certainly make our nation angry.
And yes, there are already several "jihads" in progress against western Europe (e.g., "jihad of words," assassinations, and the like). Just think of how western Europe would react to unreasonable international demands after nukes are aimed at it, though.
I hope and pray you are correct. But I think the phrase, "never again" is a significant part of the Israeli psyche... and the worst strategic situation is radioactive Tel Aviv.
Let's hope for the best...
Understood and having worked with the IAF, I agree that this article doesn't begin to cover the options Israel has at it's disposal......Never Forget.
....and Never Again.
There is a possiblity!
They can fly over Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and then Iran is within their reach
They can also have midair refeuling over the international waters!
The only problem is not to be identified by any body on the way to Iran
It all depends on whether it's Hillary's first or second presidential term.
Now that's scary!
Why shoot, Israel should make no secret, but rather start sending out these sorties randomly and fairly frequently, with the first ones stopping just short of Iran, till Iran gets the picture or else the bomb hits the bunker.
Any thoughts on what might be the reaction among those Shiites in Iraq that are close to Iran? Would that complicate our situation there in terms of achieving political stability? Of course we may have no choice if Iran will not stand down.
Israel has various ABM defenses to counter either Iran, Syria or another threat from the Islamic world.
Bring it on Mullahs......
The Israelis have many options and they know it. My bet is this; combined air and espionage attacks coordinated to the split second. Some obvious military strikes that will be reported by the MSM and some you will never hear about. The Mossad has infiltrated Iran already and they are getting this plan together as we type. Our CIA probably doesn't know squat about what Israel has planned, as they shouldn't. Our military has deep, dark OPs that work directly with the IDF, and we will never hear a word about these American heroes but they will help the Israelis stop the maniacal regime in Iran from developing the final weapons, you watch.
no... that won't work like that!
Once Iran is attacked, the chances of a safe and successful 2nd wave attack will be very low!
Remember that Iran has built civilian housing, schools and hospitals over the targets..
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