Posted on 11/29/2005 1:17:14 PM PST by LdSentinal
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Prime Minister Paul Martin's lead in the polls evaporated as the country headed into an election campaign, according to the latest survey released on Tuesday.
Three other polls released on Monday and Tuesday showed a lead of five to six percentage points for Martin's Liberals over the Conservative Party, led by Stephen Harper.
But the Ipsos-Reid poll showing a tie was the most recent, taken on Monday night after the opposition parties brought down the minority government in a confidence vote over Liberal corruption, triggering a January 23 election.
Taken for CanWest/Global News, the Ipsos-Reid poll put both leading parties at 31 percent, followed by the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) at 18 percent. A November 22-24 Ipsos poll put the Liberals ahead 34 percent to 30 percent.
In Quebec, the separatist Bloc Quebecois leads the Liberals by 58 percent to 24 percent. And in the key battleground of Ontario, the Conservatives narrowed the gap to a two-point deficit against the Liberals from 11 points six days earlier.
A Strategic Counsel poll, released in Tuesday's Globe and Mail, put the Liberals at 35 percent, the Conservatives at 29 percent and the NDP at 17 percent. In Quebec, the Bloc led the Liberals by 54 percent to 30 percent.
Ipsos surveyed 1,000 Canadians, a size considered accurate to within 3.1 points 19 times out of 20. Strategic Counsel surveyed 1,500 people, with a 2.5-point margin of error.
Ipsos poll. . .in other words, polling Canadians to find out what the French think.
Probably the single biggest factor in this election would be the strength of the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP in relation to the Liberals, since these three parties basically compete for the same voters -- and the Conservatives aren't likely to attract much support from these voters. This is similar to the way Ralph Nader and Al Gore were competing for the same voters here in the U.S. in 2000.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
Ping.
Gee the Canadians have short elections. How can they make an informed decision, without at least eighteen continuous months of campaigning? (/sarcasm)
If those polling numbers hold, that won't happen. They'll be limited to the GTA, especially Fortress 416.
Yeah, but you notice conservatives are lagging behind in every poll.
*Wonders if all the American leftists that went up there after the 2000/2004 US election are effecting Canadian politics*
Hey, there's a good idea: How about Bill Clinton for Canadian Parliment? Sure he's limited to his two sorry terms down here, but up there he can reign forever.
He'd need to move up here first, get citizenship then work his way through the Liberal Party of Canada.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
That's a saving grace in some sense - having three left parties versus one stateside...although the NDP are well to the left of any mainstream US party and the Bloc Quebecois are a regional faction...
Canada is not ready for conservative government. They need to fall further behind first. Same problem as in Europe. When they are on their knees perhaps they will be ready to dump socialism.
The Bloc looks likely to sweep Quebec. The Liberals will take a pounding there.
No majority will emerge from the election, so the question will be whether or not anybody can form a coalition. If the NDP does well, would they be willing to govern in coalition with the Liberals? Maybe, but then, maybe not.
The most interesting combination is Conservatives + Bloc.
Everyone says this is impossible, but I am not sure that's so.
There are certain issues on which they overlap. Notably, they both favor widening free trade with America. The Bloc even favors a common currency (adopting the dollar), and the Conservatives have spoken about that. The Conservatives, of course, are thinking economically. The Bloc are thinking strategically: getting the US dollar and wide-open trade will lessen the mental sense of dependency on Canada.
Also, the Conservatives are completely non-competitive in Quebec, so they are not a threat as such. Conservatives don't want Quebec to leave Canada, so they are not going to go for some sort of theatrical gesture involving the French. They'll hunker down and govern, and things French will remain status-quo. But both the Bloc and the Conservatives have strong vested interests in getting the Government and using it to investigate and prosecute Liberal Party corruption all across Canada. For the Conservatives, this offers the possibility of reducing Liberal competition. For the Bloc, of course, it will allow them to increase the distaste of the Quebecois for the corrupt government in Ottawa.
Will these things be enough to drive them into coalition?
Probably not.
But it depends.
If the Conservatives win more seats than the Liberals, they will be able to go to the Governor General and establish a minority government without the Bloc (nobody is going to win a majority). But if the Liberals edge them out, the Liberals will be able to form another minority government UNLESS the Bloc (or the NDP) form a government with the Conservatives.
An NDP/Conservative alignment is completely hopeless: the ideologies are hopeless opposed. It would be like forming a coalition between Republican Baptists and Ted Kennedy.
A Bloc/Conservative alliance seems even more unlikely, because the Bloc is hellbent on independence, and the Conservatives are hellbent on keeping the country together.
BUT...ideologically, the Bloc and Conservatives both have in common that they are nationalists. The Bloc are willing to do anything to advance the cause of French independence, and certainly allying with the Conservatives in order to crush the life out of any remaining Quebec Liberals, not to mention get free trade and the US dollar would advance their cause, in their view. The Conservatives are not going to be able to blunt the French drive for independence at any rate, other than by good governance that reinspires some confidence in Federal Canada. Letting the Liberals have minority government again will just embolden the Bloc that much further, since the reason for the loss of so much of the Liberal support in Quebec is disgust with Liberal corruption.
And so it may be that, if the Liberals win more seats and would otherwise be in danger of forming a minority government, the Conservatives and the Bloc might just shake hands and govern together. If the Conservatives gave the Bloc the Culture portfolio, they might even end up causing more French nationalists to decide to stay in Canada.
It's a funny old world.
Canada really cannot afford another Liberal government. The Liberals are so utterly corrupt that policy no longer really matters, because it is the underground flow of money that explains all.
What's the best outcome for AMERICA?
Why, that the Bloc wins triumphantly in Quebec, the Conservatives win a plurality, so that they get the governance (thereby allowing Canada to join missile defense and be more supportive on Iraq), the Bloc and Conservatives cooperate to open free trade further and adopt a common currency with the US...and then the Bloc takes Quebec out of Canada, precipitating a constitutional crisis which might very well result in Alberta seeking independence and joining the US with all of that oil...in the long run.
Oh come on you are so off the mark.
1. Do you know who is the provincial party in Quebec (you guessed it Liberals)
2. Do you realise how different the highly socialist the Bloc is from the Conservatives (check out Duceppes credentials)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilles_Duceppe
3. NDP'ers will turn on the NDP to make sure the the conservatives do not win.
4. Harper made a great move today by saying he would work towards outlawing gay marriage (except this does not apply to people who are already in same sex marriages). Way to go Harper that shows you sure have your mind made up. He single handedly alienates those who are for gay marriage and those who are against jeez.
5. Any talk to common currency or involvment in Iraq will result in a quick end to any minority government. Canada has to keep their holier than thou - we are better than the US- donesn't the world love us image.
6. Sitting here in the middle of Quebec writing this, You are sadly misreading the urge to seperate. Why seperate when you get everything you want by whining about it.
The Bloc is going to sweep the Liberals in Quebec, and gain mightily at their expense, which will embolden them to press their agenda further and further.
I do indeed know how different the Bloc is from the Conservatives. I also know that the United States and Churchill's Britain allied with the Soviet Union in order to defeat Germany. Politics makes for strange bedfellows. The Bloc's gains are the Liberals' losses, not the Conservatives.
At all costs, the Conservatives have to prevent the Liberals from getting the government back. This is their greatest chance in a long, long time. But nobody is going to win a majority.
Gay marriage? The old Liberal bogeymen about Conservatives going to eat everybody's mama. The question is: will the Canadians reject the Conservative party and vote back into power the corrupt Liberals just in order to protect GAY MARRIAGE?
Don't bet on it.
Nobody will win a majority.
And if the NDP will align with the Liberals in order to prevent a Conservative minority government, the only counter would be a Conservative/Bloc coalition, as impossible as that sounds.
It does not matter a whit that the Bloc are socialists. Their focus is Quebec separation, and getting whatever they can from the government along the way. They're not competing with the Conservatives, but with the Liberals in Quebec.
Anyway, we'll all know in about two months who won.
So let's keep the communication going and return.
My prediction is that the Liberals will get crushed in Quebec, and the loss of Quebec seats will mean a narrow loss to the Conservatives in overall numbers.
Then it's a question of coalitions, or of a Conservative minority government.
But without a Bloc majority in Quebec (provincial), a speratist vote cannot be held. Further seeing as the Bloc just voted a gay cokehead to lead their party (Andre Boisclair ) they are not looking that good. While Andre may sell in Montreal he doesn't play well in rural Quebec.
Liberals will not protect gay marriage I think Harper did it well for them, he is against gay marriage unless he's for it (where have I heard that before)
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/CanadaVotes/2005/11/29/1329069-cp.html
But hey it's fun and I still really believe that Conservatives will not win until they wake up and vote http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_MacKay in.
Yeah I'm a big fan, I even forgive the guy for http://www.wednesday-night.com/belinda.asp cause even though shes a traitor she still kind of hot.
Heh heh.
Well, we'll see.
I think that the Liberal stench is too great this time.
The corruption is too high, and they wouldn't cut a deal with the NDP to save their government.
Now, Mr. Dithers may prove to be a sly fox.
But I will be utterly gobsmacked if so.
I think it will be close to stasis, but with Liberal turnout a touch lower than usual (not EVERY Liberal can stomach just utterly blatant corruption), with Conservative turnout as high as it ever gets, and with the big shift being the Liberals losing seats to the Bloc.
Then it will be an interesting standoff.
If the Liberals end up forming another minority government, it'll only end up strengthening the Bloc, I think.
At the end of the day, I think that it will be Quebec that, once again, decides the fate of the nation.
Quebec as always. I've lived in the US, Ontario, Alaska, Yukon and all over the rest of NA but I still love Quebec. For all it's faults, politics wise, it's a beautiful place and you can still buy beer in grocery stores. (If you are in the US you will not understand the joke)
LOL.
But you have to go to the state shop to buy cider!
Ipsos bought out Angus-Reid a few years ago which any Canadian Political Junkie could have told you was the Liberal Party "boutique" polling firm.
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