Posted on 11/15/2005 7:05:19 AM PST by Dan Evans
It's basically the equivalent of an oil company that shuts down major drilling rigs but still insists on keeping them in tip-top shape long after they cease to function. You can be sure that company is going to go broke some time down the road.
How do you draw that conclusion, though? Technological changes do not necessarily come in a regular, predictable manner, or at the rate we'd all like. We've got 6 billion people in the world, though, and the world population is growing very quickly. Not only that, but capitalism is making countries which previously lived in poverty much richer, and as they get richer, they demand more oil. The demand is escalating very quickly.
If you read most of these posts, they basically say, "don't worry, there is no problem." When people start saying that kind of thing, you can bet that there WILL be a problem.
I don't really agree with that. The auto industry has vast over capacity, and it's not just employees.
Well said. I like to look for the point at the end of a reason. I think your post is sharp. It points out that the left is nothing more than a puritanical strain of human being. Those willing to accept their dogma are to be blessed, those not are to be cursed.
Hmm... a nuclear pile at every garage? ;)
True, but if you look at the price of gas since the 1980's when it was much higher, the price today is about the same. Prices rise and fall, but over the long run they haven't increased that much.
As the oil companies adjust to the increased demand from Asia and the supply disruptions from Katrina, the price will continue to fall.
Why would anyone bother to cite anything from "The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists?" Even the lefties don't use this source anymore.
What you should ask is what market/political conditions would make it so that technological advances that society needs are developed.
A high enough price for a commodity will spur development on a cheaper alternative, but only if the rewards for the discovery of this alternative is large enough to make it worthwhile for the discoverer.
The Big Three companies (not the industry as a whole) have lots of excess capacity -- mainly because they operate under a dysfunctional business model which makes them uncompetitive in the marketplace but at the same time makes it more expensive to cut production than to maintain current production levels.
Its alright. If we can convince the French to allow more Muslims to burn more cars, the auto industry can step up to the challenge. Besides, what are the French going to buy? Peugeots?
And cause the price of oil to stabilize once the "Dooms Day" fear could be eliminated.
In 1900, we were still wedded to horsepower. The thought of most American families owning a luxury like a car was inconceivable. Let alone, 2 and 3 car 'families'.
Who knows where we'll be in 2100?
The reason I come to that conclusion is basically that the problems have ALREADY been solved. Let me state it one more time - Bio-diesel and other methods have already proven to be a FUNCTIONAL alternative.
Forget windmills and solar cells. We can already run the engines we have on other fuels, with some existing technology. NO - it's not cheap right now. But - when gas gets more expensive, it WILL BE MORE ECONOMICAL. You WILL NOT have to ride a bike.
The law of supply and demand (human nature) dictates that when people are willing to get an industry such as that started, they are willing to pay for it, and the prices eventually come down, as more companies want in on the business.
THAT is how I draw the conclusion. If we had as many bio-fuel staions as gas stations, the competition would keep BOTH prices low. We just have to be forced to choose something besides gas, and that will trigger what I'm telling you.
It's not just oil supply. It's that PLUS economics, PLUS human nature.
"..Big Oil continues to jack-up prices at the pump. ..." ~ Willie Green
And just "who" is "big oil"? LOL
"....over 60% of oil is owned by governments and governments are trying to increase the amount of oil they own and control. For example, government owned companies from India and China are trying to buy oil rights from Canada, Brazil and South East Asia.
Major privately owned oil companies such as ExxonMobile and Shell control less and less of the worlds oil.
How will countries such as China and India react when there is a major disruption in oil supply? Will they allow the oil they control to find its way into the worlds supply system or will they gather it for their own use? ..."
http://www.tsaugust.org/
Yep. See my post #74. I agree whole-heartedly.
Doubtful.
or will they gather it for their own use? ..."
And why would ExxonMobil or Shell care if they did?
After all, such action would dramatically increase the profit margin of the remaining oil that they DO control.
Frankly, it doesn't matter if "Big Oil" is China, India, ExxonMobil, Shell or OPEC...
NONE of the aforementioned entities have any interest in supplying American consumers with cheap oil that erodes their profit margins.
The enviro-whackos who oppose ANWR drilling are useful idiots who also help keep the price of oil jacked-up.
If they didn't evolve on their own, then Big Oil would've invented them, just to have another bogeyman to blame for high prices.
And Jerome Corsi is just another disingenuous Big Oil shill.
Who cares if his junk science is ideologically opposed to Algore's junk science?
Junk science is junk science no matter which faction of the Republicrat Party is chanting the mantra du jour.
As a mechanical engineer, you should have a decent understanding of math.
average oil production per acre is about 49 gallons
Biodiesel Fuel
The US uses about 373 million gallons of gasoline per day
This Week In Petroleum, Gasoline
The US uses about 169 million gallons of distillate (diesel and fuel oil) per day
This Week In Petroleum, Distillate
Looking at only the distillate, and only trying to produce 25% of the current need is 15.5 billion gallons per year. Or in soybeans production 316 million acres
Where is that going to come from?
I see many who fit into the above category, including a lot of big-mouthed liberals who drone on and on about how wasteful America, but don't like applying their ideas to their own lives.
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