The reason I come to that conclusion is basically that the problems have ALREADY been solved. Let me state it one more time - Bio-diesel and other methods have already proven to be a FUNCTIONAL alternative.
Forget windmills and solar cells. We can already run the engines we have on other fuels, with some existing technology. NO - it's not cheap right now. But - when gas gets more expensive, it WILL BE MORE ECONOMICAL. You WILL NOT have to ride a bike.
The law of supply and demand (human nature) dictates that when people are willing to get an industry such as that started, they are willing to pay for it, and the prices eventually come down, as more companies want in on the business.
THAT is how I draw the conclusion. If we had as many bio-fuel staions as gas stations, the competition would keep BOTH prices low. We just have to be forced to choose something besides gas, and that will trigger what I'm telling you.
It's not just oil supply. It's that PLUS economics, PLUS human nature.
I am not sure I agree with that. Yes, the technology is there, but I think you may be underestimating what it's going to cost to produce enough of that fuel to run our economy.
First, I question whether we have enough arable land to grow enough of the stuff, particularly with all the population growth we've had. Even if we do, remember that the cost of soybeans (and every other crop) is low because of oil. If oil is no longer available, then the price of all those crops will go up a lot, both because farms burn oil and because they use the chemicals derived from oil for fertilizer and pesticides.
Then you've got to process the crop, and that takes oil. Of course, we can do all that without oil, but if we do, then the cost of the crop will go up to an even higher price than it is at now.
And it really isn't very affordable even now, compared to oil. I think we're looking at a scenario where we would be lucky to have 1/2 the standard of living that we now have.